What is this blog worth?

With AOL buying Weblogs, Inc. there are now tools to value blogs. Here's ours:

My blog is worth $4,516.32.
How much is your blog worth?

Continental NY to Cologne

Continental Airlines is to launch daily nonstop flights between its New York hub at Newark Liberty International Airport and Cologne, Germany, starting on May 10, 2006, pending government approval. This will be the first scheduled service between the U.S. and Cologne since 1990. Continental’s Cologne-New York/Newark flights will be operated with a 172-seat Boeing 757-200 aircraft, carrying 16 passengers in the BusinessFirst cabin and 156 in economy. ---------- With all these 757s across the Atlantic we see CO starting its own hub-busting actions. Rather than wait to see how the 787 will do this, here we see the 757 doing it. No doubt he good people of Cologne will approve. Cologne is the largest city in North Rhine-Westphalia, the largest German Federal State. Twenty million people live within one hour’s drive from Cologne. The dynamic Rhine-Ruhr region is one of the central locations in Europe for industry, trade, the economy, science and research. Last year Cologne saw a 30% increase in American visitors.

Hooters Air first flight

The first Hooters Air flight took off for Florida at 7 a.m. Thursday and arrived on time. Its return to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport, however, was delayed several hours by a security concern. Upon arrival at Orlando International Airport at 10 a.m., security officials detained a passenger who had made an “inappropriate” comment to another passenger, said Rod Johnson, spokesman for the Orlando airport. A Northeastern Pennsylvania radio station was doing a promotional broadcast from the plane, and in the background picked up the passenger’s comment, Hooters Air President Mark Peterson said. ------ The comments (apparently) were made by a passenger named Hank, a sales manager from Cleveland, to one of the flight attendants named Staci..."Miss, I gotta tell ya, from what I can see, you have the best hooters.....ahhh...airplanes money can buy." Just keeping y'all abreast of the news (sorry we couln't resist)

Thoughts on India

This weekend saw yet another railway accident in India. India's state-run railway system carries more than 13m passengers a day. It has one of the world's largest rail networks, but also a poor safety record. About 300 rail accidents are reported every year, resulting in a high number of casualties. Earlier this month, at least 16 people died and dozens were injured in a train crash in Madhya Pradesh state. Now everyone is getting very excited about the rapid growth in air travel in India. This huge country has mostly terrible infrastructure. Remember the floods in Mumbai because of the poor drainage? We mention this because the aviation growth is going to hit infrastructure limitations, too. Business Week reported on the country's skilled labor shortages - yes outsourcing has hurt India as well! Are we to expect that air travel will always be safer than rail in India? We think not. Airlines are poaching pilots - 200 pilots at last count. India is going to have to import pilots - which may improve safety. Aviation infrastructure is poor. China realized the importance of education and we see no skill shortages in China. India had better start massive spending on post-high school education at universities not trade schools. Failure in this regard will add to terrible travel options in this huge country. Look at Mexico's skills sets - a country with awful social issues because of poor education. Unlike Mexico, India cannot export its poor uneducated masses to America.

The New Mixed Up Delta

Delta Air Lines Inc. yesterday announced plans to eliminate its Song discount airline and merge the operation into Delta's long-distance domestic routes. Delta plans to eliminate Song in May and merge much of its operations -- including its 48 Boeing 757-200 aircraft with satellite TV -- into Delta's transcontinental routes beginning next fall. "By merging the brands, we will also benefit from a more simplified operation, reduced overhead costs and more focused marketing resources," said Delta chief executive Gerald Grinstein. ----- Is this silly or what? Song has better brand identity than Delta because it offers soemthing different, so why not trash the Delta brand which is tired? Song has a following. Delta is in trouble because it is no different than any other legacy carrier. If Delta really thought Song is a dog, why not sell it as is? There would almost certainly be a buyer. Song is creative where Delta is stodgy. This is a net loss to travelers. Can you see Delta doing something clever like adding IFE and TV to its domestic fleet? Nor can we though that is what they say. So its back to the same old tired thinking of protecting the mother brand that has been thrashed by LCCs. Too bad they don't run down the Delta brand and keep Song.

African aviation - the best place for aviation stupidity

Why the Dark Continent stays dark -- Somalia's government ordered two warlord-owned airports closed on Friday in an effort to boost its tax revenues, prompting an ally of the airstrips' owners to threaten to shoot down any plane diverting to obey the order. A government statement said it had informed trading partners Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates that the private airstrips at Daynile, outside Mogadishu, and at Merca, south of the capital, would shut from November 1. "We are closing these airstrips for security reasons, and some other airstrips in southern Somalia will follow as soon as possible," Information Minister Mohamed Abdi Hayr, speaking by phone from Somalia, quoted the statement as saying. "We contacted the (foreign) governments... to discuss the support of Somalia's new government and resume the taxation system of the country, which collapsed during the civil war." The two airstrips are lucrative ventures run by militia bosses who have campaigned for months to persuade Ethiopian-backed President Abdullahi Yusuf to base his year-old transitional federal government (TFG) in the lawless capital Mogadishu. Yusuf instead works from Jowhar, a town 90 km to the north of the capital, arguing Mogadishu is too dangerous and that it is the base of many of his political opponents -- among them dissident ministers in his own government. The airport order prompted Mogadishu-based warlord and Commerce Minister Muse Sudi Yalahow to threaten to down any plane known to have diverted to other airports in compliance with the order. "We will shoot the planes trying to accept the new rules of airplanes," Muse Sudi said on Somali radio monitored in Nairobi. "If an airplane changes its usual flight, we will use the anti-aircraft missiles which we have," he said. "The planes will fall on the ground if they accept the orders from the TFG." The country disintegrated into anarchy after former dictator Mohammed Siad Barre was toppled in 1991 as clans pressured by famine and political turmoil launched battles for territory. The country now comprises two self-declared enclaves in the north and a patchwork of quarrelling clan fiefdoms in the south. Somali businessmen normally have the pick of about 240 bush airstrips to trade an array of produce -- including contraband and hard drugs -- without hindrance from any central authority. Kenyan Civil Aviation Authority official Anthony Mwandikwa confirmed that Kenya had received the Somali notification. Daynile and Merca's el-Ahmed airstrip are among the busiest and have proved lucrative for their owners, respectively Mogadishu militia boss and Internal Security Minister Mohamed Qanyare, and Islamist warlord Sheikh Yusuf Inda'adde. Qanyare declined immediate comment. Inda'adde was not immediately available for comment. Experts say both factions of the government are gearing up for a military showdown, and a U.N. report by a panel of experts said government ministers on both sides had bought large amounts of weapons flooding into the country in recent months.

AirTran To Stop Selling Tickets On Expedia

AirTran Airways said on Friday that it will no longer make its inventory and fares available for sale with Expedia, which runs on-line travel agency Expedia.com. The low-cost carrier also said it had entered a multi-year deal with Cendant to sell tickets through its Apollo and Galileo travel sites. An AirTran spokeswoman said the new deal is an extension of an ongoing relationship with Cendant companies. On-line travel agencies are facing a growing threat from suppliers who can sell their products on their own web sites. But analysts have said that full-service travel agencies like Expedia will remain strong because they can offer packages that feature travel, lodging and other services. -------- Taking a look at what AirTran sells, you can understand this decision. Expedia says they were the ones to make this happen - the airline says it was - who cares? The middleman is not that important. AirTran can sell its tickets from its website cheaper ad pass on the savings to itself. If you still want Expedia to provide a hotel or renatl car, great, then use them. Airlines need these other websites less and less. Its smarter to use something like SideStep (www.sidestep.com) which checks each airline website. Remember airfares are heading up fast and the airline website will always offer the best deal.

Notes from IFE test

A US-based firm Aircell (www.aircell.com) has tested their technology for airborne internet access. The tests went well. Here are some notes from one of the testers - * If people have a data link, they are less keen to make voice calls. We had WiFi going and it tougher than expected to try out VoIP, CDMA or GSM phones. Surprising. * Voices don’t carry well in airplanes. The softer you speak, the better the person on the ground can hear you. I think this has to do with noise cancelling mics. * Even in a super quiet private jet, you couldn’t hear someone on a call 2 seats away. This makes me believe that the social issues of voice on planes can be resolved over time. * I think the U.S. airline execs “get” that the plane is the last unconnected locale & that their passengers want connectivity – they just need a solid business case. * Being able to use your own device is critical. Even when people made a call on one of our VoIP phones, they pulled out their own cell phone to get the number. The usage of a person who brought their own laptop was significantly higher than that from a person who borrowed on of ours. ------- We are thrilled to read these notes as this matches what we have been saying to one and all - this stuff works and is no big privacy deal or an intrusion. We have all got stories of the obnoxious passenger sitting next to us - and that's without a phone! Our research shows strong demand from travelers. For some reason airline managers have a short planning cycle - they want an ROI of 1 year. Kind of myopic. But as we see Delkta evolve into Song where IFE is working, watch for some changes. Similarly jetBlue is a natural for this - not to mention Southwest which actually has the money to invest. Bear in mind our research shows that a traveler is willing to pay nearly $200 per year on this so it adds up to a big revenue for airlines. And its not as though they aren't desperate for new revenue streams.

Airbus discounting the 350?

In a great story of the current orders in an Oct 28 article from the Seattle Times (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002588498_boeingsales28.html) this little gem is at the end. "An internal Boeing document includes a report from the sales field that Airbus in June was offering the A350 at only $85 million, just over half the list price." Now its plain to see that the 787 has been beating the 350 in sales. But if this number is real, it shows by how much. There is no way Airbus can offer a 50% discount on this airplane - which has yet to be built - claim it will not use launch aid. Perhaps Airbus will not use launch aid because they will need much more than aid.

Hawaii Airport Security Goons

USAToday -- KAHULUI, Hawaii — The head of a small interisland air carrier said Monday night that he may shut down service because he and his employees fear the personnel of a company that holds a state contract to provide security at Kahului Airport on Maui. "We can't continue to operate if my employees face the threat of abduction. It's reckless," said Greg Kahlstorf, president and partner of Pacific Wings. "What if somebody gets killed next time?" Kahlstorf was referring to an incident last Thursday during which, he said, he was beaten for no reason by Robert "Butchie" Tam Ho, who heads Wackenhut security at the airport. Kahlstorf said Tam Ho, a retired assistant chief for the Maui Police Department, also assaulted Will Goshorn, a Pacific Wings pilot who is also the Transportation Security Administration security coordinator for the airline, without provocation in front of witnesses at the airport manager's office. The Wackenhut office at the airport said Monday night that Tam Ho wouldn't be available to comment until Tuesday. Kahlstorf said he and Goshorn were placed under citizen's arrest by Wackenhut personnel and turned over to Maui police. Kahlstorf was charged with harassment and resisting arrest, and Goshorn was charged with third-degree assault. Once bail was posted, they went to Maui Memorial Medical Center, where Goshorn was treated for a facial fracture. Kahlstorf said he was left with blurred vision in one eye and ringing in his ears. The two later filed assault complaints against Tam Ho and other Wackenhut staff. Kahlstorf said the violence erupted during a meeting he requested with Dale Tsubaki, acting Maui airports manager for the state Department of Transportation, and Wackenhut and federal Transportation Security Administration officials. Kahlstorf said he wanted the meeting to discuss ongoing friction between his airline and Wackenhut personnel. Also at the meeting were Kahlstorf's business partner Frank Ford and Pacific Wings on-duty manager Kahea Reinhardt, Kahlstorf said. Reinhardt said that during the attack, Tsubaki stood helpless and his female staffers screamed for Tam Ho to stop. "Will put his hands over his head and huddled in the corner and Tam Ho was just hitting him like he was a boxer," she said. "He just snapped," Reinhardt said of Tam Ho. "Everything was fine, it was peaceful. We didn't say anything to him." Roy Sakata, airports operations manager for the DOT, said the situation was being investigated. TSA Maui Director Lowrey Leong said he was making inquiries about what happened. In September 2004, the DOT awarded a contract to Wackenhut to provide airport security for Maui County and Kauai. The contract, with a three-year minimum and two one-year options, took effect last October. --------- Lets see what TSA does about this. This is a disgrace.

Nigerian terrorist group linked to al Qaeda

Debkafile -- a group identifying itself as Coalition for Militant Action in the Niger Delta (COMA) has claimed the crash on Oct. 23. The plane bound for Abuja came down at Lissa village minutes after takeoff from Lagos airport. Aboard were senior Nigerian officials who have never been identified by the authorities. Before disappearing from the airport radar, the pilot sent a distress signal. COMA threatens more attacks on “Nigerian agents and infrastructure” until its leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari is released from detention. The detained man has asked his followers to cease violent action, but they publicly rejected his request and threatened strikes against Nigeria’s oil pipelines. The Nigerian group claims to be linked to al Qaeda and operating under the command of Abu Musab al Zarqawi. One theory is that the plane was brought down by a missile. --------- Who is going to deal with these people once and for all?

Northwest is big CSeries hope

FI -- Bombardier has confirmed it is in talks with Northwest Airlines to launch the 110- to 130-seat CSeries, although financial problems at the bankrupt carrier have caused the Canadian manufacturer to delay a board decision on the aircraft’s launch. The lack of a launch customer has hindered Bombardier’s plans since it revealed the CSeries program last year, and is a requirement for hundreds of millions of dollars in British and Canadian Government grants and the development of a new centerline engine by Pratt and Whitney Canada (P&WC). That could now change. A Bombardier spokesman tells Air Transport Intelligence: “I can confirm that we are in talks with Northwest Airlines to purchase the CSeries. There is no guarantee, but Northwest is a potential customer.” --------- Northwest a launch customer while its in Chapter 11? How desperate Bombardier must be. Embraer saw this market long ago and brought their aircraft into this market as Boeing decided to kill the 717, leaving Bombardier in the dust.

Avian Flu reaches Old Europe

SkyNews -- The UK confirmed its first case of the virus. H5N1, which has infected over 100 people, killing 60 of them, recently spread into Romania, Turkey and Russia. The H5 strain has also been confirmed in Croatia. And Sweden has announced it has discovered a case of the virus east of the capital. The UK's Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson has warned that a flu pandemic may kill up to 50,000 people in the UK alone. Between two and 50 million are expected to die globally if a pandemic occurs. --------- Here comes the next tsunami. We can't stop it and we (all of us on earth) don't have enough antidote. A pandemic can (will?) kill millions of people.

Southwest - A Kudo

I went to MSY Sunday morning to pick up some stranded pax (just random whoever, strange to play God) to come with me on the evacuation in my car. I understand that those that stayed were bused to the SuperDome. It was strange to see the WN counter "Christmas busy", a strange frantic energy, hundreds milling about near the WN lines and not a soul behind the Delta, American, United or USAir counters. (JetBlue or AirTran had a couple of flights going out). All the legacies had canceled SATURDAY PM flights (PERFECT WEATHER) and stranded pax overnight (no hotel, no pillow to sleep on the carpet, no infornmation). GREAT weather till 11 AM Sunday (I left with 3 @ 9 AM), went downhill fast after that. Last WN commercial flight @ 3:15 PM. Main runway closed @ 4:30 to 5 PM, LUV ferry flight arrived at 6 PM on short cross runway, fastest turn in WN history with 60 employees, airport closed at 6:43 PM. It is difficult to properly express my outrage at the legacies or my admiration for WN cutting it as close as they could! by Alan Drake

Airbus whistleblower faces prison - Mangan update

Telegraph online -- Joseph Mangan thought he was doing Airbus a favour when he warned of a small but potentially lethal fault in the new A380 super-jumbo, the biggest and most costly passenger jet ever built. Airbus A380 The A380 is the world's most ambitious aircraft, a joint effort by the French, Germans, British and Spanish. Instead, Europe's aviation giant rubbished his claims, and now he faces ruin, a morass of legal problems, and - soon - an Austrian prison. Mr Mangan is counting the days at his Vienna flat across the street from Schonbrünn Palace, wondering whether the bailiffs or the police will knock first. Having failed to stump up a €150,000 (£100,000) fine for breaching a court gag order, he now faces a year behind bars. Mr Mangan claims a defect in the outflow valve control system could lead to an abrupt loss of cabin pressure, leaving passengers unconscious in as little as 20 seconds. "Normal oxygen masks don't work properly above 33,000 feet. Anybody over forty or over-weight is at a high risk of embolisms," he said. "The A380 uses a set of four identical valves that could all go wrong at the same time for the same reason. The typical jet has three different systems to eliminate such a risk," he claimed. Glitches had arisen using the same operating system in February 2004 during a test in Phoenix for the Aermacchi fighter trainer, which he had helped to fix, he claimed. There were 160 cases of emergency loss of cabin pressure in Europe last year. Investigators suspect it played a role in the crash a Helios Boeing 737 flight over Greece in August, killing 121 people. Officials at the air safety watchdog EASA said they took the concerns "extremely seriously". An EASA source told the Telegraph that the agency was "able to confirm certain statements by Mr Mangan". A probe - conducted by the French authorities for EASA - allegedly found that TTTech was "not in conformity" with safety rules and had failed to carry out the proper tests. The key microchip was deemed "not acceptable". EASA instructed Airbus to sort out the problem before the final certification of the A380 next year. It is unclear whether this has now been done. EASA has refused to comment publicly on the details of the dispute, prompting concerns at the European Parliament. Eva Lichtenberger, an Austrian Green MEP, wrote an "urgent" letter to the agency last month demanding "prompt and extensive information on the matter". -------- As more information on this story comes out, we note with interest that Mangan's case seems to be getting stronger, not weaker. Moreover, if Airbus has used one system for the valves then this is quite serious - especially in light of the Helios 737 crash. Of course Airbus (and TTTech) and its airline 380 customers don't want to wait a day longer - deliveries are already running 8 months late. So Airbus is facing delivery sanctions already, there was a report of $100m in penalties so far. Further delays may cause cancellations. That might kill the program economically. Which would be awful for Airbus as they now start to focus on the new 350. Indeed, there are strong rumours that the 380 delivery delays are driving a number of airlines towards ordering the 747A, the latest version of Boeing's 747 whose launch is, apparently, imminent.

JFK TSA screener theft

Newsday.com -- A security employee at John F. Kennedy International Airport was charged Thursday with stealing $80,000 in cash from a checked suitcase headed for Pakistan, the Queens district attorney's office said. ------- Now there is no question this theft is another in the series of disgraces the TSA has faced. But, we sincerely hope there is some investigation done into why a person would travel with $80,000 to Pakistan - and he checked this bag, is he nuts? Lets face it, we would like to hear the money might be going to relief efforts not to fund, shall we say delicately, the "opposition". There has to be more to this story. Imagine if we find out the TSA thief actually did us a favor by finding this money? The owner of the money did not declare the cash but he was never asked if he had anything to declare and likely will not be charged with a crime. If you enter the USA with more than $10,000 Customs wants you to declare it. How come this question is not asked of outbound traffic? We read often about the increasingly creative ways terror groups are getting their funding. In no way do we suggest the traveler in the story is a party to a crime. But we do think this situation warrants further scrutiny.

Northwest Mechanics Strike Vote Canceled

Reuters -- Striking mechanics at bankrupt Northwest Airlines will not vote as expected on a company proposal to end their two month walkout and allow some of them to go back to work, the union said late on Thursday. The Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association said the carrier inserted language in its "return-to-work" agreement at the last minute that violated the group's constitution and cannot be approved. Jim Young, the union's chief negotiator, said the "bombshell" language intended to prevent retaliation against replacement workers at the workplace was arbitrary. Young said the company wants the right to decide for union members what constitutes a violation and penalty "if you are not working in absolute harmony" with replacement workers. The company's latest offer would have allowed 500 union members return to work, joining about 600 replacement workers who have been hired permanently. The airline contracted other work and slashed positions to save money. "This continues to be about busting our union," Young said. ----- Busting the union? Seems to us the union has bust itself this time. Northwest gets stronger every day, the new workers surely improving their performance along the way. And the union? Well, winter is coming. It will soon be very cold standing around with a placard. Maybe the union members can outsource their leadership?

Watch what you drink when flying

The US EPA reports they found contaminated water on 15% of 327 airplanes at 19 airports. This is the water in tanks often used for making coffee and tea - drinking water is mostly served from bottles. Passengers also brush their teeth with tank water found in the taps in toilets. Just to make you confident, the airlines have agreed to empty and disinfect the tanks every quarter! They will also test each tank annually. Maybe that's good enough for the airlines - but is it OK for you? Count us out of drinking coffee and tea on board, thanks very much. You not only need to bring your own food and water when you fly; you might need your own seat one of these days. What an industry.

More on Avian Flu

All Influenza is of the same family as the virus that affects birds. So the chances of it crossing species is always high. Every year Influenza starts in different parts of the world and spreads very rapidly The South Asia deaths were amongst a population that has had little exposure to flu of any kind. Also with poor diets and relatively high poverty their chances of succumbing was high With poor medical facilities and care and lack of understanding of flu of any kind it was not caught quickly. Normal flu countries know what to look for. Education and prevention are better in the western countries but not completely safe. Taking Theraflu too early may make not increase your chances of preventing the flu. See these links for downloaded docs worth having: Avian flu FAQ Avian flu transmission Avian flu actions

Southwest targets United

Southwest Airlines has announced it will launch service from Denver International Airport beginning in early 2006. The airline will announce specifics of its flight schedule and fares via a news conference in Denver next week. "Southwest has experienced strong customer demand to serve an obvious gap in our route network, and this service will return Southwest's legendary low fares to Colorado," said Gary Kelly, Southwest's chief executive officer, in a statement. "Denver's growing community is one we have studied and intended to serve, for quite some time, and we look forward to also serving the people of the entire state of Colorado." --------- With strong west coast traffic and its service to Midway, Southwest can now focus on irritating United big time with service into Denver. As Southwest continues to drive longer haul flights, we see traffic into Florida and BWI adding to United's woes.

Aboulafia for October

October 2005 Dear Fellow Alphabet Soup Consumers, Do letters hurt? I didn’t used to think so. But sometime around 1990 McDonnell Douglas, whose leadership could charitably be termed “in need of adult supervision,” implemented a management philosophy known as TQM. As implemented at Mickey D’s, TQM basically told everyone they were out of a job, and needed to reapply. The resulting fear, insecurity and turmoil played a minor, bizarre role in the ultimate destruction of the company. As a young industry initiate I was baffled. How could three simple letters cause so much damage? More seriously, how did such dubiously skilled people get in positions of power and authority? Well, it’s nearly 2006, and here we go again. The letters this time: QDR, as in Quadrennial Defense Review. And in place of McD management, we’ve got DoD. It’s not my place to rail against the dysfunctions of Rumsfeld’s Pentagon. Besides, my old pal Loren Thompson has already done a superlative job (http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/defense.asp?aid=673). But I will say the current review promises nothing but bad things for our beloved industry. First, there’s the fear factor. By placing everything on the table and spreading rumors of deep cuts (and deliberately avoiding direct communication with industry), DoD’s top leadership has created an insecure procurement environment. This drives up weapons costs—companies don’t invest in a program’s future if it could be killed instantly. Worse, QDR’s equally dim three-lettered cousin, PBD 753, exacerbated this insecurity by implying that Multi-Year Procurement (MYP, the only benign three letter term in the bunch) contracts were illusions. PBD 753 tried to kill the C-130J, which had a “secure” MYP. This effort failed, illuminating serious (and embarrassing) miscomprehension at DoD. But from industry’s standpoint, if you couldn’t trust an MYP, what security did any program have? QDR, of course, is about realigning strategic priorities. As someone who spent grad school monkeying around with strategic thinking, I can certainly appreciate the impulse to play Major Program Reviewer or Grand Strategy Poobah. But the more I hear about the process the more skeptical I get. Just for starters, here are three questions: 1. DoD tried to kill the C-130J and has no plans to fund more than 180 C-17s, with the line dying in the next two years. If QDR is about force projection for a new, changed world, why is DoD negative on the only two airmobility programs? 2. If it’s about Transformation (a buzzword that deserved killing long ago), why is the Research and Development budget shrinking? 3. If DoD genuinely wants to kill JSF variants or programs like the F/A-22, why wasn’t it done years ago, before billions more were spent on development? What has really changed? Is this merely an Iraq-related budget crunch? If so, why isn’t DoD doing more to promote defense? Defense spending as a percent of GDP is very low by historical standards (below 4%); if the budget is the problem, why not reconsider those tax breaks? (Okay, that’s more than one question.) This isn’t to say that threats don’t change. But who’s to say what will happen next? Who’s to say retired Rep Zell Miller (D-GA) won’t morph into a huge reptilian monster and attack Chicago?Strategic uncertainty is a fact of life; it’s important to deploy dual-use assets. An aircraft carrier can provide disaster relief. An F/A-22 can protect the nation’s airspace. Both can play a counter-insurgency role (T.E. Lawrence once said that fighting guerillas with conventional weapons was like eating soup with a knife; it’s actually more like eating waffles with a spork—not perfect, but certainly possible). Capable weapons have a broad utility, even homeland security or fighting guerillas. But homeland security forces are good for one thing, a Maginot Line defense. Buying lots of border patrol helicopters sounds good, but try using them against conventional forces in the Straits of Taiwan or Hormuz. And re-equipping the military for infantry-intensive counterinsurgency and nation building duties is preparation for the last war. Pre-Iraq nation building operations were on a much smaller scale. For better or worse, our Iraq involvement will be mostly over within four years. And I can’t imagine replacing Iraq with a similar nation-building effort of even remote equivalence. I’m very suspicious about all of this. What if QDR isn’t about strategic re-alignment at all? It might be a con job, a politically palatable way of slashing defense procurement to pay for Iraq. Closer inspection looks awful—the party faithful are going after anyone who might fund defense programs. Kenneth Krieg, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics, recently implied that weapons defenders were tools of the military industrial complex (perhaps he could have sung a few ‘60’s protest songs, too?). Senator John McCain is criticizing programs for high costs, using numbers that are basically deceptive (he recently termed the F/A-22 a $220 million plane, which includes all development costs and makes as much sense as the legendary “$2.2 billion B-2 bomber” a decade ago). Of course, as weapons costs rise due to program insecurity, politicians will have plenty to criticize. And as CSIS’s ever-useful Jeremiah Gertler points out, defense spending does best when one party controls Congress and the other controls the White House. Complete one party control eliminates the political tension that guarantees adequate levels of defense spending. If the budget heads down or if programs are targeted for death (as with airlift), plus-ups won’t save the day. It all comes down to Iraq. Any of the ongoing yearly Iraq War supplementals would obviate DoD’s procurement funding woes. The hidden costs of equipment overuse are equally severe. By some accounts, equipment is burning up at five times the normal rate. Some think the Iraq invasion promoted US security by fighting the enemy on their turf. Some think it hurt US security by creating more enemies and bogging the military in a quagmire. This controversy won’t be resolved for years. But if Iraq prevents the military from recapitalizing its current generation of weapons, then the US’s superpower status will be seriously hurt. That would make Iraq a strategic miscalculation of the highest order. Remember: aircraft don’t kill people; people kill aircraft. And speaking of which, this month we’ve updated the 717, 757, C-5, CRJ, Caravan, Bell 430, OH-1, Il-114, and Premier One. Have a good autumn. Parochially Yours, Richard Aboulafia

Its a small world - getting smaller

European planemaker Airbus' parent company EADS will make a key piece of US rival Boeing's latest passenger jet, in a sign of how outsourcing can trump national pride. Boeing supplier Vought Aircraft Industries' announcement on Monday that EADS will be a subcontractor on its work on the 787 was at first glance a surprise considering that Boeing and Airbus -- two symbols of regional industrial might -- are facing off in a trade battle. But analysts said the news, first reported by the Seattle Times, was an inevitable consequence of an engineering-intensive industry where a handful of companies have the know-how to build the necessary specialized parts. --------- Is this not amazing? But, has Boeing ever had a crack at building something for Airbus? No? Not us either.

Helios (again!)

Reuters -- A Helios Airways plane flying from Cyprus to Birmingham in Britain interrupted its flight and returned to Larnaca on Wednesday after a fault warning, the airline said. It was the privately-owned budget carrier's third aborted flight this month. ----- Amazing that people are still flying this airline. What does it take for passengers to get it?

jetBlue keeps up the pressure

With the 190s freeing up 320 capacity this airline can keep growing its long haul service. JetBlue Airways last week announced it will begin service between Fort Lauderdale and Oakland, Calif. starting Jan. 19, 2006 with one daily flight each way. With the route, customers in South Florida will have seven nonstop destinations on the low-fare airline, and Bay area customers will have a fifth nonstop option on JetBlue. This route will be served by the airline's A320 aircraft. The 190, rather than creating problems for jetBlue's managers, seems to have created nightmares for Delta and US Airways, who for the longest time, have regarded Florida their turf. Watch for other California cities to Florida soon - Long Beach next? Ah, to be a cherry picker!

MAXjet - update

MAXjet Airways, Inc., scheduled to begin service Nov. 1 between JFK Airport and London Stansted Airport, on Friday announced that it has added two additional 767s to its fleet. MAXjet has signed a lease for its second aircraft and a letter of intent for its third. Both aircraft are expected to be delivered in early November. The purchase of these two additional aircraft will allow MAXjet to operate either three daily transatlantic flights or a second daily transatlantic flight and the launch of a charter program, the airline says. ----- A couple of things you might want to know. This airline must be growing faster than they planned - we have no idea on their bookings, but this kind of growth says something. Anecdotally, this blog gets hammered daily with the search word “maxjet”. You would be amused to know by whom – BA, bmi, BAA, and yes even Virgin. What does this tell you?

Avian Flu - the next SARS

Reuters -- Romanian authorities slaughtered poultry and sent in doctors on Sunday after the deadly strain of bird flu was confirmed in the Danube delta, and officials elsewhere in Europe prepared for a possible pandemic. British laboratory tests showed on Saturday that the H5N1 strain of the disease had reached mainland Europe for the first time, identifying it in three ducks found dead in the Romanian village of Ceamurlia de Jos. Experts fear the H5N1 virus, which has killed more than 60 people and caused the death of millions of birds in Asia since 2003, could mutate and spread easily among humans, creating a pandemic that might kill tens of millions of people. Despite the Romanian assurances, Britain's chief medical officer said on Sunday his country was braced for a pandemic of bird flu that could result in at least 50,000 deaths there. A normal winter flu kills more than 12,000 people in Britain. -------- This is VERY serious. Nobody has enough vaccine. As this virus mutates, whatever vaccine exists may not work. A pandemic could break out if H5N1 mutated into a form that passes among humans without mingling with a human flu virus. This was how the 1918 flu virus developed. This is not the winter you should think about missing a flu shot.

787-10X in the works?

FI -- Emirates is stepping up pressure on Boeing to firm up plans to build a larger, 300-seat derivative of the 787 to replace the 777-200ER. The Dubai-based carrier has been evaluating the 787 along with the A350 with a view to placing a large order, but has repeatedly stated that the current Boeing offering is too small for its needs. The manufacturer has until recently baulked at requests to create a larger 787 derivative, beyond the 260-seat -9, because it would compete with its own 300-seat 777-200ER. However, as a result of pressure from Emirates and others, as well as the emergence of the 300-seat Airbus A350-900, Boeing is known to be studying a further stretch, designated the “787-10X”, which would seat at least 290 passengers and, at 68m (223ft), be around 6m longer than the 787-9. “We’ve told Boeing what Emirates would like, to see what they could do with a 787 stretch and they’ve responded positively,” says airline president Tim Clark. “Now they’ve brought something of interest to us…I don’t know where that will take us,” he says, adding: “They’re working with us and, I dare say, a lot of the others.” Emirates has nine 777-200/200ERs in service, but Clark believes that the arrival of the A350-900 in 2010 will spell the end for the variant: “They will eat [the 777-200ER] with that aircraft,” he says, adding that he expects the emergence of the new generation twinjets will force Boeing to eventually “cancel” the 777-200ER. Despite his pessimism about the 777-200ER, Clark says that Emirates is “seriously looking at” the ultra-long-range General Electric GE90-powered -200LR version, which has “unbeatable range and performance”. This aircraft and the incumbent A340-500 are being evaluated as the airline looks to expand its ultra-long-range fleet. ---------- So if Boeing does not do this 787 stretch then it appears the 772ER might be threatened by the 350. There has been a lot of speculation that Boeing has been reluctant to stretch the 787 because this would then overlap the 772ER. On the other hand there has also been a lot of talk about the 350 taking a bite out of the 772ER sales. Therefore we might say the 787-10X discussed here is a response by Boeing where they would prefer the 787 stretch bites into 772ER sales rather than have the 350 do so. Given that of late Boeing has seen a number of sales campaigns where a combination of 787 and 777 were highly effective; we expect to see Boeing protecting this combo.

Not commercial - but awesome to see

Your correspondent was at the annual air show held at Miramar Marine Base in San Diego today. There was every kind of military aircraft you could wish to see. However, even though this is a commercial aviation blog, I had to share this with you. The Air Force decided to send over a B2 which performed two passes. Having earlier seen the remarkable B1B behave like a fighter, along came this beauty. I assure you, if you were not looking up at it, you would have missed it -its so QUIET! For those of you who care about such things - its quieter than a C130. This was an amazing thing to experience.

Sneaky Orbitz PR piece

“The Orbitz Insider Index” Unveils Top U.S. Halloween Travel Destinations for 2005. Leading Online Travel Company Also Highlights Sleepy Hollow, N.Y. as “Best Undiscovered U.S. Halloween Destination”. ------- So Orbitz puts out this cute PR piece about Halloween travel. For most people this a nice information but it does not come and scream what it really is. For years now, for anyone who thinks about this - like we do - reservations systems have been missing a huge business opportunity. This is called information. Imagine what CVBs and other destinations would pay for a report sent out every month that advises the bookings for that destination 90 days ahead? A GDS like Sabre could make a killing. This report could tell you of the total hotel rooms in New York, but class of property, for a certain date range, the percent of rooms booked. This kind of information is very useful for travel planners of every stripe. As you may be aware, Smith Travel research has been doing this sort of reporting for yeasr - but nobody seems to be doing the reporting that provides for an efficient futures market. People will pay for this data because it is decision impacting information.

Northwest Employee Letter

TO: NWA Salaried Employees FROM: Mike Becker SVP- Human Resources and Labor Relations RE: Salaried Employee Wage Restructuring As you are well aware, Northwest has faced numerous complex challenges over the past four years including the affects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, SARS, the Iraq War, skyrocketing fuel costs, the significant growth of low cost carriers, the impact of the Internet on airline pricing, and most recently, two devastating hurricanes on the Gulf coast. The Northwest management team has tackled each of these challenges aggressively and expeditiously. You have worked diligently to control costs and implement improved business processes that have resulted in annual non-labor cost savings of approximately $1.7 billion. We now face our most important challenge – to rebuild Northwest into a strong, more efficient carrier capable of successfully competing with legacy and low cost carriers alike. Our greatest asset is the people of Northwest Airlines, including the most skilled management team in the airline industry. We look to you now as we face the challenges ahead. Northwest's ability to successfully restructure its costs and recalibrate its business model will require acute focus and attention in the critical months ahead as we strive to emerge from bankruptcy able not only to compete but to succeed as a modern era carrier. Filing Chapter 11 was not Northwest's preferred means to restructure its costs. However, it will provide us with some new tools and processes to evaluate our business model and make the changes necessary to compete with low cost carriers and restructured legacy carriers. Our plan is to quickly and aggressively restructure our costs and bring them into alignment with the new competitive landscape. This will entail bringing labor and non-labor costs in line with our competitors, examining and restructuring our business model, and strengthening our balance sheet. Part of this restructuring process will require compensation and benefit changes for all employees, including salaried employees. Northwest's success will depend in large part on our ability to retain and continue to motivate our salaried employee group. As such, our labor cost restructuring efforts will attempt to balance the Company's need to retain a strong management team with the need to achieve a competitive cost structure. Please carefully review the following summary of the labor cost restructuring efforts which will impact your pay and benefits. These changes are in addition to those implemented on December 1, 2004. Base Pay Effective December 1, 2005, base salaries for all salaried employees will be temporarily reduced by 5%. Officers will take an additional 5% permanent base pay reduction. The temporary base salary reduction will cease upon Northwest's exit from bankruptcy. In addition, the 2.5% merit increase that had been scheduled for implementation October 1, 2005 will not take place. The next merit review date for all salaried employees will be April 1, 2007. Paid Time Off Effective January 1, 2006, all pay for time not worked (vacation and sick time) will transition to a Paid Time Off (PTO) bank. The following outlines the PTO accrual schedule going forward. All year-to-date accrued but unused vacation time as of December 31, 2005 will be immediately deposited into your PTO opening account balance. Your PTO bank may be used for vacation, personal illness, caring for a sick family member, or for other personal reasons. Paid Time Off Accrual Schedule: Banked Sick Hours Your banked sick hours will be frozen as of 12/31/05 and you will retain your accrued sick bank capped at 520 hours. Beginning 1/1/06, you may use hours from your frozen sick bank to cover illness; sick hours used after 1/1/06 will be paid at 75% of your current pay rate. There will be no additional accruals into your sick bank and as hours are used, your outstanding sick balance will be reduced. Northwest will continue to offer elective, employee-paid Short Term Disability (STD) insurance for those who choose to participate. Additional information on the STD plan will be available during the upcoming benefit open enrollment process. Floating Holidays Effective January 1, 2006, the three floating holidays provided to all salaried employees (2 birthday holidays and 1 anniversary holiday) will be eliminated. Health & Welfare Benefits Northwest remains committed to providing high quality health care benefits. However, it is important that these programs are cost effective for you and for the airline. With that in mind, we have redesigned the medical and dental programs for plan year 2006. The medical plan will consist of a single, preferred provider plan requiring a monthly 25% employee contribution to participate. Ongoing benefit plan costs will be paid 80% by Northwest and 20% by employees subject to certain deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums. Employees' Spouses/Domestic Partners who work and have access to health care at their employer will not be eligible for coverage under the Northwest plans. In addition, a tobacco surcharge will be assessed on those employees/spouses/domestic partners who use tobacco products. With the redesign of our health plan, employees who utilize more health care will pay more of the cost. As a result of the redesigned medical plan, many employees will ac! tually see a reduction in their monthly premium contribution rate. A single, redesigned dental plan will also be implemented. The new plan will contract with select high performing dental providers whose practice focuses on preventative and high quality dental care. This concept will further maximize employee and company dental cost savings. Additional details on the new medical and dental plans will be available later this year in advance of the benefit open enrollment process. We are planning to delay open enrollment until December or January so that these changes can be finalized and properly communicated to all employees. Profit Sharing Plan A company-wide profit sharing plan will be introduced January 1, 2006. All Northwest salaried employees will be eligible to participate in this plan. This plan will provide, on an annual basis, for a distribution of 10% of Northwest's profits to employees upon achieving a minimum profit threshold of $1M. The NWA Profit Sharing Plan will be implemented January 1, 2006 and the first payout would be in early 2007, subject to achieving the profit threshold. Salaried Employee Headcount Reductions There will be a 5% reduction in salaried employee headcount effective January 1, 2006. Most importantly, we do not anticipate any reductions of current, active salaried employees. Rather, we will achieve this headcount reduction via the elimination of open positions and through attrition during the next three months. Currently, ~6.8% of NWA's salaried positions are vacant. Therefore, we are confident that we will achieve this targeted position elimination without terminating any current management or salaried employees. Retiree Medical Coverage Retiree medical coverage will continue to be available to those salaried employees who meet the eligibility criteria of age 55+ and 23+ years of service. Future retirees will be required to contribute 50% of the retiree medical plan cost to be eligible for coverage. Northwest is committed to continuing to provide you with a competitive wage and benefit package and a challenging work environment. The changes outlined herein constitute salaried employees' fair share of the wage and benefit cost savings needed to restructure the airline, while keeping your compensation and benefit package in close alignment with the competitive marketplace. Thank you very much for your personal sacrifice and ongoing contributions toward our labor cost restructuring efforts. Together, we will overcome the challenges ahead and emerge as a stronger, more efficient and profitable carrier, capable of successfully competing in the years ahead.

jetBlue - Market Maker

Now American and Delta have matched jetBlue's fares in the US Northeast. This means they cut their fares from ~$290 to as low as $25. Do you think they can afford this? Only if you believe their cost structures are the same - and of course they are not. So the legacy carriers die slowly from a thousand cuts. They cannot compete. They will pick up people if a jetBlue flight is sold out. Now how will they know when that happens? They will have to ping the jetBlue website constantly looking at seat maps. jetBlue, being smart people, will want to start blocking certain IP addresses from their site....

eBay Acquires Payment Gateway Business

Some investors have grown concerned that the size and number of deals from eBay over the past several months is an indication that the core business is slowing. eBay, in a deal valued at $370 million in cash and/or eBay stock, announced it will acquire VeriSign's payment gateway business and combine it with PayPal. eBay expects the deal, including synergies with PayPal's merchant service business, to generate an incremental $100 million of revenue at a 20% pro forma operating margin in 2006. The VeriSign business allows small and medium-sized businesses to integrate payment processing into Web sites. --------- For those of you who follow this ... This is HUGE. There is no ifs ands or buts. The die is cast for the final step in online ecommerce transformation. These numbers mean that eBay will be able to bring merchant processing to the masses. For the travel business it reduces the cost of processing down to a reasonable number so that any intermediary can be a merchant. So you may think I am crazy but I see this as another nail in the coffin of the GDS. Why? Because infrastructure that was formerly the domain of the GDS exclusively has become part of the proletariat. There are all manner of trends that can be extrapolated. eBay could easily have bought out all of Verisign but wants to leave that company independent so as to enhance the heterogeneous nature of its new offerings. This is a structural shift in the way that business is conducted. Lowering the price point and broadening eComm has become the basis of eBay's and Google's expansion. They are doing a better job at this than Microsoft and definitely better than ANY of the legacy businesses. Timothy J O'Neil-Dunne Managing Partner - T2Impact Ltd Global Travel eBusiness

American Airlines Courts Unions

Reuters -- Bucking an industry trend toward cutting wages to offset soaring fuel costs, American Airlines is betting it has more to gain by courting its employees than by squeezing them. American, fortified by a USD$3.5 billion cash pile, has embarked on the industry's greatest experiment in union-management cooperation since an ill-fated attempt at employee ownership at United Airlines ended up with United filing for bankruptcy in 2002. "Our strategy is... focused on continuing to improve our competitiveness... by having a constructive, collaborative working relationship with our people," American Airlines' CFO James Beer said in an interview. "That approach has continued on a regular basis to yield fruit." The airline has encouraged cooperation by forming "leadership teams" comprising rank and file as well as management, paying performance bonuses and fully meeting its pension obligations, among other moves. ------ Whadda you know? Next they'll be nice to passnegers too! Be still my beating heart. Might it be pleasant to fly again? This is great news - potentialy. Lets see if it translates into a better experience.

Southwest proposal to serve Boeing Field rejected by local government

ATW -- Southwest Airlines' proposal to transfer its operations from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to King County International Airport, better known as Boeing Field, was rejected yesterday by King County Executive Ron Sims, who cited noise and traffic concerns as well as the potential cost to taxpayers and unresolved legal issues (ATWOnline, July 22). Southwest had offered to spend $130 million to construct passenger facilities at Boeing Field to handle up to 85 daily flights. It cited steadily increasing costs at Sea-Tac that "have become an obstacle to growth" in the region. But its move was opposed by Sea-Tac and its primary tenant Alaska Airlines, which said that if Southwest moved it would be forced to follow. "We are disappointed that our proposal was not given the comprehensive examination it deserved," said Southwest CEO Gary Kelly. "We will explore every option to expand and preserve our low-fare service in the region." ------- A final "No"? Does not look like it. Seattle has a bit of NIMBY in its culture (not in my back yard). But the area around Boeing Field could use some redevelopment. We don't think this is over yet.

Canadian Madness? or the funniest thing we have seen in a while

Take a look at this site - http://gcmr2005.blogspot.com Its a blog of Canadian trying to score 1,000,000 frequent flier miles in 60 days. This is either amazing, suicidal or the great flying adventure of 2005! Good luck dude.

jetBlue 190s start their impact

JetBlue Airways today announced it will be entering the high-frequency New York/Boston market with 10 flights a day between JFK and Logan. The move pits the carrier as a major competitor to Delta and US Airways in the shuttle markets between the two cities, and is accompanied by several new additional nonstop routes from Boston and New York. JetBlue also announced three new daily flights to Austin, Texas; four new daily flights to Richmond, Va.; and increased frequencies to Buffalo, N.Y. and Burlington, Vt. The new nonstop routes will be flown with Embraer 190s, which will be the first JetBlue flights to offer channels of XM Satellite Radio, as well as the company's DirectTV offering. The low-fare airline today also announced a major expansion of service from Boston with new daily service to Austin, Texas; Nassau, The Bahamas; New York (JFK); Richmond, Va.; and West Palm Beach, Fla., plus new connecting opportunities to 27 JetBlue cities, including 15 cities previously unserved from Boston. The airline will triple the number of destinations out of Boston by April 6, 2006. ------ Here we see the first round of the end of the Shuttle as we know it. jetBlue will kill the Austin service for the legacy carriers as well. The 190s are going to change the rules real fast. Growth of jetBlue means shrinking for others - and #1 on that list is USAirways, not Delta.

Airbus 350 - update

FI has a great story on this -- Airbus fears A350 demand will outstrip supply chain Speaking to Flight International after the launch last week, chief operating officer John Leahy said the “biggest problem” he faces is “our ability to ramp up A350 production. If I could get more, I could sell more.” Airbus has secured 140 order commitments since the commercial launch of the twinjet in December last year. Leahy says that sales will reach “200 to 210 by the end of the year”. He points out that, with Boeing likely to have around 265 787 orders by then, A350 orders will have virtually caught up despite the 787’s significant head start. “My problem is getting them out of the door,” says Leahy. “We need to do what Boeing is doing with its production ramp-up of the 787.” ---------- If Airbus is going to increase 350 production like Boeing is doing with the 787 then it says something about the fundamental decision regarding hub vs secondary cities. It means the theory on direct service between secondary cities is the greater market. Therefore Boeing is correct on focusing there - Airbus has to catch up. Moreover, it is then also correct that Boeing focuses on its 787/777 offering and does a 747A revamp later this year. At the same time Airbus has to get the 380 done while catching up on the 350 - while also working on the 400M freighter. That is a lot of work. Any schedule slip ups at Airbus has potentially big negative impacts on these new aircraft. Boeing is at much less risk now they have settled their union dispute. Imagine what even a small strike would do to Airbus. They have taken on a lot of risk.

ECLAT vs Campbell Hill - Consultants battle over Love & DFW

In this corner, Campbell Hill for the Southwest/Love team. In the other corner, ECLAT for the AA/DFW team. ------- Eclat Consulting Says Wright Amendment Repeal Could Result in Major Loss of Air Service in Dallas/Fort Worth Market and Adversely Impact Dozens of Communities in 22 States. The results of the study, commissioned by American Airlines, were based on publicly-available data and Eclat's internal models. "American and the other airlines currently operating out of DFW would be forced to move a large number of flights from DFW Airport to Love Field to compete with Southwest Airlines if the Wright Amendment is repealed," said William S. Swelbar, president and managing partner of Eclat Consulting. "If that happens, 'hub degradation' would take place, making marginal routes unprofitable. Inevitably, those unprofitable routes would be eliminated." (C'mon Bill, unprofitable routes should be eliminated anyway) The study also suggests that small cities that rely solely on federally- subsidized Essential Air Service (EAS) provided by the AmericanConnection carriers will see the effectiveness of their only air service degraded as they lose the ability to connect to important domestic and international destinations. "Those consequences simply can't be avoided by American sitting back and doing nothing if the agreement upon which we and the communities have relied for years is suddenly undone. Given the disproportionate economic power and resources of Southwest Airlines, which is now the nation's largest and wealthiest domestic airline and which dominates Love Field, we would have no choice but to respond decisively." --------- And the sky will fall? Nah. Don't think so. Competition is good. Other cities with multiple airports do fine. Let the consumer decide which airport is better for their travel needs. The argument is conveniently made into a near-national issue because international service from DFW might be affected. So what? People have choice, let them choose. As for American responding decisively, they can do so now. How did Southwest become the most successful and wealthiest US airline? Surely nobody is going argue they got there because they were protected at Love Field. This is about the most interesting thing going in US commercial aviation now - so enjoy it! Both teams are smart and will play every card they can so expect a rejoinder from the other side in a week or so.

Britain Rejects Air Travel Levy - cool heads prevail

Reuters -- The British government said on Monday it would not implement a suggested GBP£1 (USD$1.76) levy on all air passengers leaving the UK. Britain's Civil Aviation Authority had put forward the plan to fund protection for travelers if their airline went bust. "The government has decided not to implement the Civil Aviation Authority's recommendation for a one pound levy," the Department for Transport said in a written statement. "The attractions of the CAA scheme are outweighed by the disadvantages," it said. The department said it did not believe a compulsory scheme was appropriate, adding that the government did not organize refund schemes for other industries such as retail, building or financial services. Airlines, which had criticized the levy as unnecessary and said it would have raised ticket prices, welcomed the decision. "We are pleased that the government has made this decision as there is no justification or need for our customers to pay this cost," a British Airways spokeswoman said. Low-cost carrier easyJet earlier said the levy would have created a GBP£250 million (USD$438.9 million) fund within three years, well out of proportion to what would be needed to compensate passengers. Chief Executive Ray Webster said commercial insurance and voluntary codes of conduct provided passengers with adequate protection. --------- Phew! At last a tax rejected!

Overseas traffic not the panancea Delta & Northwest think

Northwest Airlines' daily Amsterdam-to-Bombay run fetches $1,400 a ticket, the airplane flies nearly full, and JetBlue doesn't go there. Which is why international flying is a moneymaker for most U.S. carriers -- and why Northwest and Delta Air Lines Inc. are both making international flying a big part of their bankruptcy makeovers. So this sounds good? Well factor another SARS type event (avian flu is coming on) and you will see this traffic dry up overnight. It used to be the US network (legacy) carriers could depend on huge domestic traffic to bolster their overseas business. Now the domestic suppport has started flying jetBlue and Southwest. Moreover the US carriers simply cannot compete with overseas carriersin terms of service. Their fleets are older, missing critical technology like in-flight WiFi and then there are the crews. Oh my. If you fly overseas on a US airline and then on ANY foreigh flag you know exactly what we mean. There is simply no comparison. Therefore we see Delta's (a carrier known for its really nice Southern politeness) and Northwest's growing dependecy on overseas routes as actually more risky. You see, we think the only people who will fly the US carriers are the people who want to pay the least. This means they are bottom fishers, and not the people these airlines want. Business traffic won't easily succumb to the absence of service - and we think think in-flight internet is a big thing. You know that if you visit this site. Watch how ANA and other airlines push their broadband WiFi and you know who they are pitching. Not the family of four on a vacation. Its the Blackberry and laptop set. That is where the money is and Northwest and Delta don't have Connexion - for that matter no US carrier does. How unbelievebly short sighted! So even if you beleive the Northwest comment abou their India flight being full - think about he route and the price. $1400 for that many miles? Get real, trans Atlantic in business is over $4000. They are carrying the cheapest travelers and that means they are becoming the Greyhound of the skies. No great future there.

Standing downstream from Northwest's bankruptcy

The parent of Mesaba Aviation said bankrupt Northwest Airlines' plan to remove 10 planes from Mesaba's schedule could push the regional Northwest partner into bankruptcy. As we stated before the bankruptcies of Delta and Northwest have been treated too lightly. We see significant impacts - all negative - for the communities of Detroit, Minneapolis and Atlanta. Watch for a rise in homes for sale and personal bankruptcies next.

Helios not doing so great

Reuters -- A Helios Airways flight to Glasgow with 184 people on board returned to Cyprus on Sunday after reporting a technical problem, the second such incident in the last few days, the Cyprus News Agency (CNA) said. The Boeing 737-800 returned to Larnaca without incident thirty-five minutes after takeoff, reporting a problem related to air distribution with one of the engines, the semi-official news agency said. Helios was not immediately available for comment. A Helios Airways Boeing 737-300 from Larnaca to Prague crashed north of Athens on August 14, killing 121 people after it ran out of fuel. State radio reported that passengers on Sunday's flight complained they had difficulty breathing. Helios has asked Boeing engineers to check the plane, CNA reported. On Friday evening a Helios flight from Larnaca to London's Heathrow with 139 people on board also turned around after reporting a technical problem. Greek officials are still investigating the causes of the August 14 crash. Preliminary reports suggest the aircraft lost pressure, rendering both pilots unconscious as the plane glided on autopilot for two hours. Helios said its remaining fleet of Boeings underwent checks in the aftermath of the crash which gave them the all clear. -------- The 737-800 is relatively new. But either the crews are jumpy (with good reason?) or this airline due to join the Euroland "no-fly" list in short order. Its one thing to give the aircraft an "all clear", but what of the airline's maintenance and crews? Take a look at this link on Skytrax - http://www.airlinequality.com/Airlines/ZU.htm the airline's rating is suspended. This airline is simply too small to have so many issues. Fly somebody else.

Boeing in talks with AI, Jet for Connexion

Rediff.com -- Boeing is in talks with Air India and Jet Airways for installation of its high-speed Internet service, Connexion, on the long-haul flights of these carriers. Connexion, a proprietary Internet service of Boeing, will help passengers to surf the Net, check e-mails and send pictures while the plane is cruising at over 35,000 feet above sea level. Connexion director (strategy and business development) Beverly M Wyse said a team from the company had met top officials of Air India and Jet Airways. Boeing had also flown down one of its Internet-enabled planes to Delhi and demonstrated its wireless fidelity capabilities to the carriers. --------- Based on how India buys anything, Boeing can expect an order that will take years to discuss and review. All the while the Indians will also speak with OnAir and they will negotiate thinking they are being clever to get the lowest price. Meanwhile Indian business travelers will discover they can get the service on Singapore Airlines now without fuss & bother.

Scary news - Plane crashes with vials of viruses Aboard

The Associated Press reports that a small aircraft from a Federal Express feeder carrier has crashed near Winnipeg -- with small amounts of flu and herpes virus aboard. According to the report, Cessna 208 of Edmonton-based Morningstar Air Express crashed on a flight to Thunder Bay, Ontario from Winnipeg when it crashed on railway tracks. Aboard it were six vials of virus samples being transported to Thunder Bay for research purposes. The plane's pilot was killed in the crash. It is believed the vials were destroyed in the crash and did not endanger anybody on the ground, according to an investigator from Canada's Transportation Safety Board. Weather may have been a factor in the crash. ------- Now this should scare the pants off people. Think of a crash where there is no fire and the virus escapes into the air.... yikes!

Seattle on a roll

The Seattle Times reports that Alaska Airlines has submitted a competing bid to Southwest Airlines' proposal to move its Seattle flights to the airport. According to the report, Alaska Airlines has sent a proposal to King County, which owns the airport, proposing to build a $150 terminal with eight gates and plans to operate 68 daily flights a day from the airport. Southwest Airlines made a similar proposal in July, for eight gates in a $130 million terminal, after negotiations with the county. Alaska, which like Southwest currently operates from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport initially opposed Southwest's plans, saying it would mean an increase in costs for airlines at Sea-Tac and would put the carrier at a competitive disadvantage. But King County says it would be impossible to accommodate both airlines at Boeing Field, saying its cap is 13 gates and 130 flights a day. The county's plans also still are subject to public hearings on noise, traffic and economic impact. --------- Must be great to be Seattle - having two competing bids like this. Other cities would kill for this. But watch, Seattle may yet blow this opportunity. The EIS might strangle the whole deal. Be sure that Sea-Tac and its allies will do whatever they can to make it so. In case you don't think this can happen, take a look at DFW vs Love Field. Airport in-flighting is ugly. Rather than give the citizens a choice, bureaucrats will do anyhting to protect their turf.

Boeing May Launch Stretched 747 Soon

Reuters -- Boeing's proposal for a stretch version of its 747 jumbo jet has attracted interest from several airlines and the planemaker may soon announce its launch, a Boeing executive said on Thursday. "We've got a number of airlines that are very interested and we hope to have something soon on that (the official launch)," Randy Baseler, vice president of marketing for Boeing commercial airplanes, said. ----- A consideration about why the 747A should be very successful - because all the airports it needs to fly to or from already can handle the airplane. It might be heavier, but it is a known aircraft. Compare this to the 380, and how many of its target airports are ready for it. Rumors are that a number od Asian airlines are keen to order the 747A and of course we know that there are already 10 freighters sold. This launch may hurt Airbus' prospective 380 sales precisely because Boeing could probably bring the 747A out fast and priced very aggressively. With 787 engines, this aircraft would meet LHR's low noise requirements.

Airbus launches A350

ATW -- Airbus received formal approval from its shareholders, EADS and BAE Systems, yesterday for industrial launch of the A350 on the basis of 140 "firm order commitments" from nine customers, one of which is unidentified.In Washington, Airbus COO Charles Champion said the company is "confident" it will reach 200 commitments by year end, while Executive VP-Procurement Henri Courpron said that all 200 will be firmed within the same timeframe. As previously announced, the aircraft will be offered in two versions, the A350-800 seating 258 in a three-class configuration with a range of 8,800 nm. and the dash 900 seating 316 with a range of 7,500 nm. The dash 800 will enter service in mid-2010 while the larger dash 900 arrives later in the year. The current customer list comprises Air Europa (10), ALAFCO (12), CIT (5), GECAS (10), Kingfisher Airlines (5), Qatar Airways (60), TAM (8), US Airways (20) and an unidentified customer (10). ----------- So now its official. Boeing has already stated it needs to increase production of its 787, the direct competitor to the 350. Boeing's official 787 orders stand at 118. Its early days for these two airplanes but we think that these aircraft types are the most likely to succeed as we move to a point to point market rather than a hub dependent market as we have today.

Southwest T-Shirt

OK OK we give up! So many hits here today looking for the T-Shirt that caused a passenger to be kicked off a Southwest flight. It looks like this. Now lets get back to the real news.

SAA COO Leaves After Just Six Months

In a further shake-up of South African Airways (SAA) management, the company this week announced that its chief operating officer, Kyrl Acton, "has decided to leave the company to pursue other commercial interests." "Acton and the company have agreed to a consensual termination of his contract of employment as a result," said the airline in its statement. And that's all the airline is saying. "Did Acton jump or was he pushed?" queried the headline of an editorial in South Africa's Business Report. The departure of Acton, a 25-year airline industry veteran from Aer Lingus, Lan Chile and Unisys who arrived at SAA just five months ago, is the subject of much speculation in South African media. Business Report and South Africa's Sunday Times both reported sources saying Acton was fired by the company's chief executive, Khaya Ngqula. But SAA is saying it will not comment on the departure -- one of several executives to leave or be suspended from the company in just over a year -- beyond the two sentences in its statement. Some of the executive departures seem to coincide with the departure of the company's former top executive, Andre Viljoen. Viljoen's replacement, Ngqula, has no airline experience and has been criticized for taking extravagant helicopter trips at the company's expense. ----------- Another example of what happens with government run airlines. There is obviously something going on, but the SAA managers won't say a thing. This is the ANC with wings - corruption running ever deeper and screwing up the works. Service has declined and now this. They won't be able to attract a skilled airline person now. They will have to go with a home-grown person and who knows what that will bring.

Bomb Brussels?

Straight talk from the Robert Crandall School of Communications - An angry Michael O'Leary lashed out at the European Commission over compensation regulations this week, calling bureaucracy incompetent and saying the Brussels bureaucratic establishment should be "blown-up." "I think we should blow the place up and shoot all the regulators and the airline business might actually prosper," O'Leary told The Daily Telegraph. O'Leary, famous for such an understated demeanor, this time is angry over a one-day strike by French air traffic controllers that disrupted the carrier's French flights. Unlike airline initiated delays and cancellations, for which Ryanair now is required to compensate passengers under new EC-mandated rules that came into effect earlier this year, the French government is not required to provide compensation under the rules. "It highlights again the incompetence of the Brussels compensation regime. Air traffic controllers can walk-out any time they like and no one gets compensation," O'Leary told the Telegraph. O'Leary reportedly says the EU "numbnuts" have confused passengers, many of whom have come to Ryanair looking for compensation and blaming the airline when they are told they are not entitled to it. ------ You got to love this guy! He makes this industry interesting - which it plainly is not. Mavericks are wonderful people.

GAO on Chapter 11

ATW -- Contrary to conventional wisdom, "there is no clear evidence" that US airlines operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection "harm the industry by contributing to overcapacity or underpricing their competitors," according to a new study by the US General Accounting Office, the investigative and research arm of Congress. Furthermore, GAO found that in individual markets and industrywide, "the liquidation of major airlines has had only a very temporary or negligible effect on capacity, as other airlines have quickly replenished capacity." In what may be its most controversial finding, GAO suggested that one reason capacity has not left the industry despite 162 airline bankruptcies since deregulation is that companies higher up in the aviation "value chain," including OEMs, financiers, lessors, GDSs, airports and credit card companies, do not want capacity to depart. "There is considerable evidence that these other members of the value chain have earned a good return on capital while airlines have not," the agency stated. "Those companies further up the value chain face less competition and are able to impose higher costs on airlines. Accordingly, these companies have a vested interest in ensuring that airlines survive and that capacity [does] not leave the industry." The report also notes that few airlines have been successful in reducing costs significantly during bankruptcy. --------- Kind of interesting to read this in light of the recent comment by the now retired BA CEO Eddington accusing the US airlines of being State subsidies. Maybe he thought GE is a state-owned firm?

The Remarkable Disappearance of JetConnect

By Glenn Fleishman Special to Wi-Fi Networking News Permanently archived item The dramatis personae comprise Airbus, Tenzing, and SITA: As our story opens, a Web site's life is dramatically cut short, ripped from the ether. The last time the site was sighted (or cited) was in [1] early 2004. Then, the big sleep. Tenzing, Airbus, and integrator SITA created a new company called OnAir absorbing Tenzing which no longer appears to offer JetConnect in connection with Verizon AirFone. You can't find a mention on the [2] current site of the email and instant messaging service that was, at one point, available on thousands of domestic U.S. planes operated by United and other airlines. Tenzing's past was erased. Which might explain the [3] strange article in today's New York Times accompanied by a [4] stranger sidebar. The main article focuses on Connexion by Boeing's business case; Connexion is a broadband in-flight operator for Lufthansa, SAS, and seven other airlines currently using satellite for the Internet relay and Wi-Fi within planes. The article traces the history of Connexion, which began during flush airline times before Sept. 11, 2001; the company shifted strategies as the domestic carriers shed expense and long-haul international routes gained appeal. The division won't turn a profit until 2008, the article quotes the current general manager of the division saying. I've noted many times on this site that "profit" excludes what has been estimated as billions that Boeing must already be prepared to write down at some point (or perhaps has written down in an oblique fashion already) or they wouldn't keep funding this division. Because Airbus now has its own competing service, they are practically compelled to keep running Connexion. Here's where the article seems to parallel the missing Tenzing. The writer notes, "Airbus, Boeing's European rival, quickly countered by buying a 30 percent stake in Tenzing, a Seattle maker of in-flight Internet systems, thinking it would enable it to provide onboard e-mail in 500 planes by 2003." In fact, by early 2004, Tenzing's email system was active in something like 2,000 domestic planes by piggybacking on existing AirFone installations. I have some leftover one-flight-free kits from that marketing effort. The article fails to mention Tenzing's current incarnation in which they will be reselling Inmarsat's fourth-generation satellites and offering units of about 450 Kbps that can be bonded into higher-speed offerings. Back when it was Tenzing, the company explained to me that they believed Inmarsat's offering was more robust than the approach Boeing was taking: Connexion relies on cells of coverage from commodity satellite transponders. Too many planes in a cell of several hundred square miles, and the total available bandwidth could drop quite a bit. Inmarsat is using beam forming to pinpoint airplanes and other ground resources, which both offers more flexibility--each plane getting essentially its own connection--but could be a victim of success in which there just aren't enough beams to go around. That's a problem any satellite company would love to have. Then the article talks about United committing to Verizon's service which won't be available to 2007--and doesn't note that the auction for the 4 MHz in question is still up for grabs; here's [5] my take on this from Dec. 2004. Verizon is a very likely winner of some large part of it, but there's no guarantee. And another bit of Twilight Zone from the main article: "Meanwhile, American, Continental and Delta have no plans to add connectivity to any of their planes. "We are still reviewing it but it has not been on the front burner,' said Benet Wilson, a spokeswoman for Delta Air Lines, which sought bankruptcy protection last month.' " Continental, United, and US Airways [6] all offered or signed up for the JetConnect service with Tenzing and Verizon. Verizon AirFone [7] still archives the press releases. Here's a [8] better article from last month from Canada's Globe and Mail that covers the same scope of this main story. The [9] sidebar in the Times is more problematic; I emailed the author because of a few errors in it. Oddly, the errors are not in the main story that the sidebar accompanies. First, the service isn't $9.95 per hour, easily confirmed by [10] visiting Connexion's site. It's both more and less expensive. The $9.95 rate buys 60 minutes in a row on some airlines that offer that option, but it's only 30 minutes (non-contiguous) on the pay-as-you-go model in which additional minutes are 25 cents each. Unlimited usage per flight varies from $14.95 for flights under three hours to $29.95 for flights of six hours or more. Second, the writer asserts that the Connexion system takes two weeks to install. This might be correct, but Connexion's sales director told me and a plane full of reporters last September (see [11] my post) that they had reduced the installation time to seven days to fit within a routine maintenance window. Right after this point, dozens of additional planes--up from a handful--had Connexion added, so I expect that statement is true and the NY Times got this wrong. Since it's not attributed, I don't know where the detail came from in their report. This article misses a kind of overarching issue, too: with international routes full, ostensibly profitable, and competitive, the weight factor is an issue, but so are additional paying passengers. Every airline I have spoken to about Connexion has said that they see this as a fundamental way to both poach passengers from airlines that don't offer the service and to have people fly more because they know the service will make flight time productive. The 600 to 800 pounds of gear corresponds to three to four passengers with luggage more or less. If Connexion adds business-class fares or business travelers who will pay $15 to $30 for the Connexion service, thus covering the fuel, and hundreds or thousands of dollars for the flight, then this is how Connexion works for the airlines. How Connexion works for Boeing involves aspects mentioned throughout both Times articles: they have to diversify outside of pure passenger services and into areas that the airlines spent a lot of money on. The telemedicine issue is large and only mentioned briefly in the sidebar: "Lufthansa, which operates about 40 wireless-enabled aircraft, is developing an application with Charité Hospital Berlin that lets doctors monitor a passenger's vital signs via a broadband Internet connection." Each time a plane needs to land because of a passenger illness, which happens with real frequency, and it could have been avoided through good telemedicine, it can cost the airlines tens of thousands of dollars or more. There's a lot of money to be saved just through that one additional service. URLs referenced: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]

Airbus 'to turn down state money'

BBC -- Airbus is to forgo government aid in developing its new A350 plane in a bid to calm a subsidies row between Europe and the US, media reports say. Allegations of unfair state aid for both Airbus and US rival Boeing are currently under investigation by the World Trade Organisation. Airbus had initially asked EU governments for approximately 1.5bn euros ($1.8bn; £1bn), reports said. ------ Hello! What's this? If Airbus does not need the launch aid, then where, oh where, will it come from? Banks of course. Watch for the names of these banks.... this will tell you a lot. You might wonder who guarantees the loans... I guess Airbus just blinked or, more likely, they are about to do something very clever with the financing. A whole industry is watching because this is going to be VERY interesting.

Airbus 380 delays not easing

Flight International reports -- The first shipset of Engine Alliance GP7200 engines has been delivered to Toulouse, but Airbus has yet to tell the engine maker when it plans to use them to power the A380. First deliveries to (GP7200) launch customer Emirates are now provisionally expected in early 2007 –- sometime between February and April that year – rather than late 2006 as previously planned. The delay is in line with the six-month slip expected for the Rolls-Royce Trent 900-powered variant. The first GP7200 shipset is now being prepared for podding trials and pre-assembly build-up in Toulouse before being fitted to the initial Alliance-powered A380, aircraft number MSN009. -------- So despite recent rumblings that Airbus is catching up on their initial delays, this may not be true. In fact, recall the 747 delays whn it was launched. The current delays should not have been unexpected. But with today's instant flow of information it is vital that the truth comes out early as it is known. Otherwise image problems mount fast and credibility is out the window. We have all noted how quiet Airbus has become about the 380 - they seem to have learned this. It is, apparently, true that it is better to under-promise and over-deliver.

WebMonitorXP and this Blog

Some of you visiting this blog may have noticed little red boxes popping up across the top of your browser when you arrived. This is because we are using a fabulous new tool that enables us to monitor who is on the blog in real-time. If you come often - and many of you do - we have been able to pop a small note to you. Some people have ignored these messages and been blocked from further site access. So the software not only lets us know who's in the house, we can greet them or even boot them. Rest assured we only want to know you better to improve the blog -its a kind of quality control, so you won't get blocked for ever if you contact us. Bet you can't do that with anything else out there! If you know of a better tool, we'd like to hear about it at info@iag-inc.com. If you want to know more about the software tool, please visit www.webmonitorxp.com. When we pop you a note to say "Hi" - please answer us.

Joe Mangan - even more

Having never met the man, we are impressed by him no less. Our first post on him occurred of the same day the 380 first flew. It was amazing to watch that large aircraft ascend so fast and quietly. An impressive sight - from Toulouse to Seattle. Unfortunately for Airbus it was also the day that Joe Mangan appeared in print with his allegation of the 380's potential safety. Since then we have seen the impact of rapid depressurization with the Helios 737. Now we all know what Joe is talking about - except the prospect of 550 souls instead of 114 gives us the creeps. This blog has a few updates on Joe since the 380 first flight. But for us is the amazing fact that there have been searches for his name every day that turn up on this blog. This story will attract them, too. It remains importan to note that Mangan's output so far has NOT been proven correct. He has taken a bold stand but there is no evidence the 380 is unsafe.