Looking for a deal to China?

ShanghaiDaily.com -- AMERICAN Airlines is likely to break United Airlines' monopoly on the Shanghai-Chicago route when it starts daily flights from April 3. The entry of the world's biggest airlines into the Chinese market has already triggered a sizzling price war between the two rivals. American will charge 2,999 yuan (US$372.50) for a round-trip between Shanghai and Chicago if passengers buy tickets between April 3 and 30. They can also pay a special price of 3,999 yuan during the period for flights from Chicago to other US cities. The prices exclude taxes and jet fuel surcharges that add up to another 1,500 yuan. American said it will use Boeing 777 aircraft to fly the route. --------- This is going to be a great fight.

Mr. Putin, Aerospace Exec

The Russia Journal -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed the decree “On Open Joint Stock Company United Aircraft Building Corporation,” the presidential press service reported. The federal government will have a 75-percent stake in the new corporation. The United Aircraft Building Corporation will include Russia’s leading aircraft makers: the Sukhoi Aviation Holding Company (Moscow), the MiG Russian Plane Building Corporation (Moscow), the Ilyushin Aviation Company, the Tupolev Company (Moscow), the Kazan Aviation Production Association, the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Production Association, the Nizhny Novgorod Aircraft Building Plant Sokol, and the Novosibirsk Aviation Production Association. All these companies were removed from the list of Russia’s strategic assets. The MiG Russian Plane Building Corporation and the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Production Association will be transformed into open joint stock companies fully owned by the government. --------- Nothing like the old fallback of central planning. We hope to provide regular readers with a podcast on this issue plus the RRJ later this week. Its a great pity Mr. Putin did this because the very thing that made great Russian fighters - competition - is now going to disappear. All we can expect now is bland thinking as opposed to really amazing aircraft created without all the fancy Western super-computer power.

Another side of Emirates

This great shot from Airliners.net (probably the best site for any aviation pictures) is of the crew rest area above the cabin to rear of the new Emirates 777-300. Absolutely amazing to see 8 bunks in this space.

Mac maker promises mysterious new goodies tomorrow

Intelligence obtained by the Net's intrepid Apple spies suggests that the company has been tinkering with a supercharged video iPod. Last October, Apple unveiled a video-capable iPod, with a square color screen was perfect for playing the TV episodes and music videos that Apple promptly began selling via its iTunes Music Store. But the new device supposedly uses the entire front of the iPod as a touch-sensitive screen. If the reports are true, the larger, rectangular display would be ideal for playing widescreen movies -- which represent the next logical step in Apple's digital-content sales. --------- This is yet another situation IFE providers should ponder. Apple is making itself into an entertainment company - providing mobile options more attractive than in-seat options. Clever airlines will embrace this by offering iTunes through their websites - especially airlines with no IFE. They can leapfrog the whole investment problem while still offering content and they can make something from these sales. Imagine cashing in your miles for a movie? Certainly makes good use of those miles as you can never seem to get a free seat. Airlines must focus in ancillary revenue and exploiting Apple's developments is an excellent way to do this.

Got $50k handy?

Knight Ridder -- It will take plenty of cash to get a new airline off the ground in Grand Rapids. JetFirst, a start-up airline, hopes to raise $8.5 million through a private offering with Dorsey & Whitney LLP. Those who want in on the venture must make a minimum investment of $50,000. So far, JetFirst has raised about one-quarter of the money it needs, according to company president Chris VanDenHeuvel. But VanDenHeuvel said he remains optimistic the carrier will be ready to launch a commercial jet service service before the end of the year. That's a slower start than anticipated. One of SelectJet's principal investors, Mike Gorham, had spoken of a March or April 2006 launch. Gorham is vice president and operations director for SelectJet, a charter jet service also based in Grand Rapids. JetFirst also must successfully navigate a fitness review by the Federal Aviation Administration. That process usually takes six or seven months to complete, and VanDenHeuvel said he has not yet initiated the paperwork necessary for the review. "We wanted to wait and see how the private placement went first," VanDenHeuvel said. "It would be nice to have that money in the bank before we start the review process." Part of the FAA review involves analyzing an airline's financial resources. JetFirst's plans three daily flights between Grand Rapids and Midway International Airport in Chicago, plus four daily flights between St. Cloud, Minn., and Chicago. All the routes would be direct, with the exception of one daily flight starting in Grand Rapids and stopping in St. Cloud before continuing on to Chicago. The airline figures it can sustain the schedule with a fleet of three 30-seat Dornier 328 jets. The aircraft would be maintained in Grand Rapids. If VanDenHeuvel and his partners succeed, commercial air service will return to a market that has had none since Northwest Airlines and its affiliate Mesaba Airlines discontinued flights to the Grand Rapids-Itasca County Airport two years ago. Before joining JetFirst, VanDenHeuvel worked as a manager for Mesaba Airlines. He said an upstart airline can succeed where his former employer struggled. Part of VanDenHeuvel's optimism stems from the direct link JetFirst will offer to Chicago. While Northwest and Mesaba continue to fly from the Chisholm-Hibbing Airport and Duluth International to Minneapolis-St. Paul and Detroit, no carrier has flown direct from the Northland to Chicago since American Eagle discontinued service to Duluth in 2004. VanDenHeuvel said travelers using Midway also will gain direct access to discount carriers Southwest Airlines and AirTran Airways. JetFirst's success likely will hinge on its ability to make the Grand Rapids-Itasca County Airport more of a regional airport than it has been, VanDenHeuvel said. He said JetFirst probably will need about 25,000 passengers a year to fly out of Grand Rapids. That's about 2 times as many people as Northwest typically funneled through the airport. Peter McDermott, president of Itasca Development Corp./Jobs2020, an economic development agency, believes JetFirst could attract 20,000 to 25,000 passengers per year. "The timing of Northwest's flights was terrible," McDermott said. "If you were a business traveler, it was very difficult to get out and get back the same day. There also were reliability issues. A lot of flights got canceled." JetFirst's decision to fly jets, instead of prop-driven airplanes like Mesaba Airlines used in Grand Rapids, also should give it an edge, said McDermott. JetFirst isn't the only startup considering aviation world these days. As thefinancially-challenged larger carriers have scaled back operations, niche opportunities are emerging. Equitair Ltd., aims to use Dornier jets to fly passengers back and forth between Morristown Airport in New Jersey, Boston and White Plains, N.Y. Paul Bultmeyer, Equitair's managing director, said that unlike JetFirst, his firm has no ambitions to become an airline itself. Instead, Equitair will line up corporate passengers by subscription and then contract with a licensed jet operator to provide the service. "Starting up an airline entirely from scratch would be a stretch," Bultmeyer said. "It's a riskier venture than we would want to be involved in." That's not to say it can't be done, he added. "It all depends upon the market." --------- If you do, consider the chances of losing it very high. Paul Bultmeyer once had an idea that now is EOS. He's smart fellow. But this is a huge risk.

Emirates - rumors growing

Interesting comments found on Fleetbuzz.com - click link above. Key points made: * Emirates does not pay for its own marketing * Emirates pays about 5c a gallon for its fuel * DXB (Dubai) charges the highest price for jet fuel anywhere in the world to airlines other than EK, of course * Emirates is owned by the same family that owns the airport and Dubai Emirates has been bothering legacy airlines for a while. CEOs at Air Canada and Qantas have both made untypically nasty remarks. Emirates CEO fired back just as nastily. The growth at Emirates is astounding. It is this airline which has ordered over 40 Airbus 380s. Only a dozen years ago, nobody heard of this airline. Government-owned Emirates Airlines has been growing more than 20% a year for the past 17 years. It costs Emirates 8.5¢ to carry one passenger one mile (the cost per available seat mile, or CASM) which is better than almost every competitor and is close to that of Southwest Airlines (which has a CASM of 6.5¢ excluding fuel). Emirates is focused on being in the top tier along with Cathay and Singapore. How's this look for a seat? Its growth has not been without incident, as these links show: click and click. There are conflicting issues at play here. Every country wants its tourism business to blossom. Overseas visitors are very useful - they stay in hotels, eat out all the time and spend lots of money. Indeed, data from OTTI suggest that overseas tourists spend about 8 times more than the domestic variety. Therefore nations like a new Emirates route into their market. But the other side of the argument is that national carriers suffer from a lack of ability to compete with Emirates. Its a tough situation and in markets where the words "national carrier" have meaning (Canada and Australia for example), one should expect negative reactions. Obviously Emirates does not see things this way. One way Emirates can overcome its image will be to go public, on a US exchange, with all the transparency that requires. Even though US markets have shown an inability to detect an Enron-style situation, US markets remain the best places for investors to get at information. Since Emirates is in no need of capital and its owners in no need of supllying information, don't expect this to happen any time soon.

JAL in Chaos as President Refuses to Quit

JAL has had a string of mishaps. Traditionally an airline never in the news, JAL has been in the news a lot with saftey issues and now a open fight in the boardroom. There appears to be a new open reporting of what is going on, and these reports indicate management time is not being spent on running the company.

Competition for freighters heats up.

Competition for freighters heats up. Airbus is finishing its A380F freighter and is preparing to compete against Boeing in the very large cargo jet market. Airbus expects 400 new large freighters to be sold through 2023. Boeing's latest offering in its cargo line is the 747-800F.


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U.S. space tourism could launch by 2008.

U.S. space tourism could launch by 2008. Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta told a group of space entrepreneurs that permits for test flights to transport tourists into space could be issued next year and the first paying space travelers could lift off by 2008. Three space tourists have already taken rides aboard the Russian Soyuz spaceships, but the fares weren't cheap, each paid $20 million.


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Podcast with Adam Pilarski, SVP Avitas

This podcast interview with Adam covers older aircraft that are parked, the 737/320 replacement issue and the 787 & 350. Typical Adam Pilarski humor here and there for those of you who know him!

Dummy of the week

Not a passenger this week. Dummies are found anywhere planes are to be found. This time we have a pushback driver that needs to be sent back to school - grade school. Take look at this.

Venezuela Bars Two U.S. Airlines

(AP) -- Venezuela has prohibited Continental and Delta Airlines from flying into this South American nation, Francisco Plaz, the president of the National Aviation Institute, said. Speaking late Thursday, Plaz said that the measure, which also will restrict American Airlines flights, was taken because the U.S. Federal Aviation Agency had established a similar ban on commercial jets registered in Venezuela 10 years ago due to safety violations. --------- Seems Hugo's boys can't help themselves, anything to stick it to the US.

U.S. Cities Sue Online Booking Sites to Collect Hotel Taxes

SanDiego.com -- Third-party, online booking websites have grown dramatically and accounted for one in 10 hotel room purchases nationwide (nearly $9.2 billion in online room bookings) in 2005, according to PhoCusWright. But with this has come a flurry of lawsuits, starting with one filed by the City of Los Angeles in December 2004. The lawsuits generally allege that when online travel agencies obtain net rates or merchant deals from hotels, they fail to remit hotel occupancy or sales taxes based on the full retail room rate, which includes their markup. In 2005, a number of localities filed suit including Chicago; Bellingham, Washington; Fairview Heights, Illinois; Findlay, Ohio; and Orange County , Florida . San Diego is the latest to file, reporting that the city is losing $6 million a year because of these practices. However, according to Art Sackler, Executive Director of Interactive Travel Services Association, an industry trade group, "The suit is based on a misconception. Online travel companies don't buy, rent or otherwise sell or resell hotel rooms. What happens is, the hotel and the online travel company negotiate a rate for a hotel room. The hotel is setting the rate through this negotiation. The hotel also tells the online travel companies what taxes to collect. The tax is collected on the room charge. Then there is a service fee that the online travel companies charge." --------- Trying to tax the Internet! As soon as they figure a way out, 5 new models will appear to get around it. Moreover, destinations must realize that when they do this, the price goes up and travelers will go someplace else. Note "Florida" among the destinations. So the entire state is suing for taxes? The only model that might work for collecting taxes is national. Lets face it, if you want to travel in the US, you can't go to another similar place, there is only one. Getting destinations to agree to this is years away.

Priceline model dated

Bidding for tickets appers to fall out of travelers' favor. Priceline.com says the popularity of its name-your-own-price model is declining. Opaque bookings have fallen 30% to 40% in the past few years, Chief Executive Jeffery Boyd said. Discount airlines and new simplified fare structures now allow most travelers to find the lowest fare themselves, he said. The Internet is merciless as it continues to grind away at every business model. Clearly if you are set on selling via the Internet, the need to offer the lowest price never stops. Your online store competes with every other online source of the same merchandise. Arbitrage is instant and relentless. To succeed you need the quickest access to information. In this environment, it seem obvious, you need to monitor your site in real-time to ensure you minimize the chances of losing a customer. Few tools like this exist. But we know of one that installs in a snap and gives you real-time control of your site. Take a look at RevealSite

Google News

One of my tasks in recent days, as well as being the European Editor of IAG Blog, has been to review a few of our processes and internal shenanigans. I can't announce too much right now but rest assured that some of the podcast interviews we have lined up, and some of the feature articles, are going to be worth your while to stay tuned for. I also hope that in the not too distant future we will be re-organising our content into categories so you can find our old entries more easily. If we're really lucky we may even have a new guest contributor or three. The news of the day however is that, after some tough talking, Google News has agreed to syndicate the blog! Yippee! So you will soon be able to search our content on their hallowed portal. Check it out!

ElAl 787s?

Bloomberg -- El Al Israel Airlines Ltd., the country's largest carrier, is in talks to with No. 2 commercial jet maker Boeing Co. to buy as many as 10 787s to increase flights on routes including New York to Tel Aviv. "Right now we are looking at two to 10," El Al Chairman Israel Borovich said in an interview today. "The 787 is a very good aircraft for this type of airline -- small and long haul. Each passenger has different schedule needs and they are looking for frequency point-to-point." El Al also is meeting with salesmen from the world's biggest airliner maker Airbus SAS next week to discuss Airbus's answer to the 787, the A350, Borovich said. ---------- Anyone want to bet on Airbus getting this order? Knee jerk reaction says ElAl will always by Boeing. But now maybe different. Arkia is clamoring for the Tel Aviv-New York route, even as a charter. Israir is already in the market using 767s. ElAl is no longer government owned and its management does not feel kindly towards the government after it gave Israir the NY route. Sticking it to the government by dissing Boeing could happen. Washington would the irritate the Israeli government no end. Never have Airbus' chances been better.

Wing test failures

Earlier we noted that the 380 wing "cracked" before it was expected to. Numbers vary between 3% and 4% of its goal. The goal seems to be 150% of ultimate load. To graphically illustrate what wings are put through, take a look at this picture of the 777's wing test.

Comparing cockpits - 787 & 350

787 350 Both have HUD, note the sidestick on the 350. Awesome office space with great views.

FCC Update

FCC released the auction schedule yesterday. Two dates of note: May 10 th, FCC Air-to-Ground spectrum auction March 24 th, Form 175 due – this is when bidders must officially announce their participation & who their partners are, so everyone will know who the players are at this point and should be an interesting point in the process. This is going to be one almighty money spinner. The players are under the radar now, keeping very quiet. You can be certain the likes of Boeing, Verizon and others are going to make big bets. From the outcome of this auction the future of in-flight Internet in the US will become clearer.

Airline passengers may be screened for fever

The Swiss authorities are examining the use of fever-detecting cameras at airports to help protect the country in the event of a human bird flu pandemic. What a brilliant idea. Too bad these devices are in Swiss hands, when they should be used in Asia first.

Airbus 350 - review of Airbus' Briefing Document

Two days ago we blogged that a copy of Airbus' A350 Briefing (a sales tool) was on its way. Well we have now read it and thought about it, read it again. Here are our thoughts. Summary: Airbus' pitch stresses its obvious strengths - commonality (part of a family) and a logical extension of the firm's aircraft development cycle. This translates into common ratings for pilots; saving airlines a lot in training. It also means airlines have low perceived risk in accepting the aircraft into a fleet - especially one that already has Airbus equipment. Specifics: 1. A chart (range vs payload) displays the 350-900 (359) right next to a 340-300 (343). The scale of the chart is not specific (no numbers). But what is clear is the 343 is going to be supplanted by the 359. Hull size is about the same length and the 359 costs a lot less to operate. Any airline flying the 343 is a natural customer for a 359, even with the range advantage of the 343. 2. Seat capacity data in the briefing is dated. Airbus has compared the 35s to their 787 equivalents. In both cases the 787 capacity is under stated. Boeing has stated 65% of its customers are opting for 9 abreast seating. This means the 350's cost savings over the 787 has either diminished a lot or is no longer an advantage. Indeed using the "old" data in the briefing, Airbus expects the 350-800 (358) to have an advantage of 8% (operating cost/seat) over the 787-8 and the 350-900 (359) to have an 11% advantage over the 787-9. The 787-9 with 9 abreast is now going to carry 300 passengers, the same as the 359. Bottom line - no advantage to Airbus. 3. Family and continuity is a big item in favor of Airbus. A pilot trained to fly a 320 can quickly learn to fly any other side stick Airbus. Many airlines cite this as a reason for staying with Airbus. Using fly-by-wire, Airbus is able to create nearly identical "feel" for a pilot regardless of which Airbus he is flying. Commonality saves big for airlines (witness Southwest). 4. Which leads to the next item that stands out in the document - risk. Airlines hate risk and their dislike of risk can be seen in orders for the 380 after the initial flurry. New means risk of all sorts of things that can (and do) go wrong - remember the 747's launch? Given the price these airplanes carry, risk of under-performance (like the MD11) or other issues cause financial nightmares. Risk is very bad for an airline. That is why Airbus stresses "knowledge-based, low-risk, innovative development". The reader is clearly guided to thinking the 350 family is a low risk - especially compared to the new plastic fantastic 787. Indeed, a 330 operator might read this and think of the 350 as a logical extension with virtually no risk, and he would be correct. The document stresses the 350's heritage from the 330/340 program (its a family thing). Airbus is pitching the 350 in a new market space (long thin routes) as the lower risk solution. Yet at the same time they stress use of new materials like composites - but not too much (39% with a total of 60% advanced materials). 5. New materials have gotten Airbus into trouble with Boeing. The 350's material selection states "fuselage material selection driver = accidental damage". This comment has gotten a lot of attention because it implies the Alu-Lith used by Airbus is more robust than the purely composite 787 to nicks and scratches from ramp equipment. This is not a silly thing - remember the two Alaska Airlines decompression events lately? Airbus goes on to state they are using composites on the wing and tail because these areas are fatigue sensitive. The wording is subtle and finesses and hints at the risk of going forward with a plane made purely of composites. Airbus is playing this card cleverly as it gives the informed reader pause. What if the 787 gets damaged on the ramp? Recall what we say about risk in #4. This is big and Airbus is highly effective here. 6. Maintenance is another issue that gives airlines pause. Time away from flying costs serious money. Compared to the 330, the 350 will have 33% more flying before an A check, 25% more before a C check, and 20% longer between structural checks. Note the use of the 330 as a benchmark. A reader is reminded often of the 350 in terms of a 330 on steroids. No question the 350 is a quantum leap in 330 terms. New technologies under the 350's skin are significant. Airbus estimates overall direct maintenance reduction by 10% over the 330. No direct mention of the 787 here. 7. A clear shot at the 787 comes when comparing engines. Although they have the same engines, the 350 will use bleed air whereas the 787 is all electric. Air conditioning driven by bleed air is going to be much cheaper, Airbus says. They posit a 60% higher maintenance cost for "no bleed" engines. Overall Airbus estimates a 40% higher system related costs on "no-bleed" engines. The way the data is presented again hints at risk of selecting the 787. There's that risk thing again. Airbus strikes with another risk card and leaves the reader wondering - what if Airbus is only half correct? That is still a 20% advantage for the 350. Indeed Airbus states the 350 will cost 10% less than the 787 to maintain (its got less new stuff) and estimates a saving of 30% over a 767. Think about that last number, it clearly shows the magnitude of efficiency these new planes represent over the last generation. 8. Floor space is well thought out on the 350. Crew rest areas are under the floor, providing maximum passenger space and have minimal impact on cargo space. Redesigning the nose to accommodate the cockpit crew rest area helped the 350 improve its drag numbers. In summary the 350 is a formidable aircraft. Although the 787 has outsold the 350 to date, we think many 330 operators will opt for the 350. The 350 offers 343 operators a logical replacement with low risk and ease of transition. Given the large user base the 330 and 340 have provides Airbus with a sizable market. Perhaps this is where Airbus should focus its efforts to regain momentum.

Gulf airline growth - concern in Asia

This link points a well written editorial in Orient Aviation Magazine. Essentially the theme is that the Gulf is not an O&D market, but rather a hub connecting Asia to other places. Therefore Asian airlines have the most to be concerned about regarding the headlong growth among Gulf airlines.

LAX - what options are there?

"Friday's episode began when the controller directed a departing Skywest turboprop to taxi onto the same runway on which he had cleared a Southwest Airlines jet to land. He also told an Air Canada jet that it could cross the same runway on its way to the terminals." Traffic continues to rise at LAX. But the airport is physically constrained. Southern California needs more airport capacity. San Diego has been studying a new airport for nearly 50 (!) years. The opportunity to use military bases is constrained because nobody wants noise. Yet development up close to airports has been allowed. You can be sure these bases were there long before the houses. So where do we go from here? Ontario (essentialy now East LA) offers good options. With the longest runways in Southern California, ONT is used by UPS for its Asia flights. But many are not aware that Ontario "sold" its airport to LA Department of Aviation. Ontario cannot afford to get it back. So the capacity at ONT lingers while traffic is crammed into LAX. Many believe that drive times from ONT to much of Los Angeles is shorter than from LAX. The LA basin has more east-west freeways than north-south. For instance driving from LAX to Disneyland takes longer than ONT to Disneyland. Officials at the State's Office of Tourism want another international gateway and ONT fits the bill.

787 Seating - fantasy is dwindling

Most people, when they saw this picture, oohed and ahhed. It looks really nice. Well it turns out, too nice. Senior Boeing sales executive Randy Baseler said typical seating in the 787-9 version of the aicraft would rise to about 280 from 259 if airlines switched to having nine seats per row in economy class rather than eight as Boeing had expected. Two-thirds of 787 buyers have decided to fit nine seats in each row in economy. While the narrower seats will disappoint travellers who had hoped the 787 would take another step towards giving economy travellers a little more room -- at eight abreast, the seats will be 48 cm (19 inches) wide, compared with 44 cm (17.2 inches) in the 1960s-designed 747. The good news (for airlines) is that by going with 9 across, the 787 increases its capacity from 259 to 280 (787-9). This in turn reduces the per seat cost by 7.5% according to Boeing. Since fares decline over time, airlines will not give passengers any extra room. The 350, constrained by a narrower tube, will only fit 8 across. The 787 becomes a very efficient cash generator. For passengers a trade off is looming. The big attraction of the 787 is its ability to fly all over non-stop. But with the risk of becoming an invalid in the process. We think the percentage of people suffering from DVT will increase on very long flights if they are sitting in tight seats. Assuming longer haul flights, for equal money, one might see a choice between flying through a hub and riding the 380 or 747-8 (with probably more space) or riding a 350 or 787 with less space. This will be an interesting trade off.

Egg Bank with BA

Egg will need no introduction to UK readers. They are one of the coolest credit card and investment companies on the planet, and they just announced some decent deals with British Airways. This is an interesting campaign because Egg, like Orange (phones), the iPod and Virgin, they have always set out their stall as a kind of lifestyle company. They want you to buy into the style and vision, as well as the quality of their products. This is a very difficult way to sell a brand, because tastes change, and if you chose a company based on its image, then you'll soon lose interest. Never mind - book yourself a holiday now!

Unmanned planes to monitor traffic

Drivers tempted to ignore a no-entry sign or cross a continuous white line in order to overtake another vehicle when the police don't seem to be around may need to be more cautious in the future. This is because the police are considering deploying a system of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) that allows them to spot traffic violations from the air and fine or prosecute offenders. ------ This is awesome use of aviation technology in a real world sense we can all understand. Its applications stretch way beyond roads. This is CCTV taken to a next levl. Many cities use CCTV to monitor its citizens for their own protection. This is really no different. One more thing: If you have ever driven on Israeli roads, you would appreciate this tool.

JAL 737s get antenna

Japan Airlines has selected the CMC Electronics SatLite compact Inmarsat high-gain antenna for installation in its recently ordered Boeing 737-800s, which will be used on the carrier’s extensive domestic and regional network. This is the first time that an airline has signalled its intent to offer passenger satcoms on domestic and regional routes. This is big news for IFE watchers. If JAL can do this, why not Southwest? Nudge nudge, wink, wink - say no more.

A350 - update coming

We wrote last week of the drop in the 350s weight. A comment from a reader advised us to be careful with the data Airbus is putting out. We have been assured that even now FedEx is carrying us (on an A300 or A310) confirmation data. Watch for the update.

Behave yourself on Korean carriers

The nation's two air carriers, Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, have put 15 people with records of violent behavior or harassment on aircraft on a blacklist and will refuse to carry them in the future. Fifty more people are on a "caution list" and will receive pre-boarding warnings and extra attention at airport security checkpoints. Another problem involving them could trigger a refusal to carry them as well. A Korean Air employee said, "Incidents not only cause discomfort to other passengers, but are financially damaging because of delayed flights and such." Asiana added that blacklisted persons with reservations for future flights would receive a refund of their ticket's price. A 2002 flight security law has reduced the number of inflight incidents, but enforcement was spotty, the carriers said. This blacklist thing has caught on. At least they don't have babies on the list yet like we do in the USA.

African aviation disease reaches Bangladesh

Biman Bangladesh Airlines told irate passengers stranded for days by a shortage of aircraft it would lease two planes to clear the backlog. Three out of five DC-10s operated by Bangladesh's state-owned airline had been grounded for mechanical faults and routine maintenance, forcing it to change international flight schedules 17 times over the past week. Angry passengers, many stranded at Dhaka Airport for days without knowing when they may fly, threatened to besiege Biman's airport office and to take their protest on to the streets. "It is the third day I am stranded at the airport. I have already spent some 8,000 taka (USD$119) for food and lodging," said Abdur Rob, a Bangladeshi man waiting to fly to Saudi Arabia. ---------- What, no buildings burned? No flags burned? ctually there is a great story about a DC10 that was returned to Douglas eons ago from this happy airline. Upon leaving the plane in Long Beach, the pilots told the engineers the plane handled heavily. This was unusual as Douglas jets usually handle lightly. (Boeings apparently feel "heavier" - one wonders if the heritage of building fighters and bombers played any role here?). Upon inspection of the DC10, it was found the cables below the decks were covered in animal droppings! Douglas never leased a plane to Biman again.

IATA's Bisignani on the airline industry's future

“Airlines have lost US$42 billion since 2001 and we expect another US$4 billion in losses again this year. Something is wrong with the air transport industry,” said Giovanni Bisignani, Director General and CEO of the International Air Transport Association at the opening of the Second IATA/Asian Aerospace Aviation Summit. “While Asian passenger traffic is expected to grow at 6.5% and cargo at 8.5% each year until 2009, growth is not profitability. Some of Asia’s carriers are among the industry’s most profitable, yet the average margin is 2%—far from the 7 to 8% needed to cover the cost of capital,” said Bisignani. Boosted by the fast expanding markets of India and China, Asia is home to the industry’s greatest potential markets. “Turning growth into profitability will be the challenge,” said Bisignani. ---------- This gentleman is the head of the airline club. He speaks for the airlines as a group. He is also the one leading the charge against airport costs - and we agree with him on that score. But his thoughts on why the airline industry continues to lose money are a bit thin. He went on talk about the usual things - LCCs (aren't these also airlines? why speak about them as something else?), Avian flu, cost savings (e-tickets)and of course those nasty airport costs. The bill to airlines for airports and air navigation service monopolies is US$42 billion each year. No mention of fuel prices - weird don't you think? No mention of bolshie labor. Nothing about airline managers being greedy (yes, but then again he couldn't could he?). "The agenda for a successful airline industry is not complicated. But it has three dimensions — airlines, partners and governments." Uh huh.

Opportunity for Ultra?

UK readers may be aware that a public UK company called QinetiQ floated on the stock market recently. Some might have heard of a company similar in size and focus to QinetiQ called Ultra Electronics, a FTSE company hovering around the 250 spot in the index. Very few will know that Ultra has an Airport Systems division. They are regarded to be 3rd or 4th behind big hitters like SITA. Happily Ultra came to visit the blog today. We have been spending a fair amount of space on RFID technologies recently and we thought it would be interesting to apply this technology to a systems provider, almost like a case study if you will - specifically Ultra. The SITA's of the world can affored to ignore RFID now; until their customers start asking for it in droves that is. But might not RFID represent a unique opportunity to Ultra? Indeed, if RFID represents an opportunity for a new entrant into (for example) the lost baggage arena (we have written quite a bit on this too) then an exising player is at an advantage? Ultra is quite big in the airport space and has a lock on Heathrow's Terminal 5, allowing them unique advantages given that airport's reputation for baggage losses (remember Thiefrow?). We're yet to be convinced by the business case for RFID. But should not Ultra, as a direct player in the field, be cornering the market with RFID given its present advantage? Heathrow remains one of the most influential airports and Ultra could be missing a great opportunity. Rather than waiting for IATA and ACI, Ultra could provide a standard that others can accept as they decide to join the RFID revolution. Such a move would also ensure Ultra gets the attention it seeks, hiding as it does in the shadows of SITA and ARINC.

Kingfisher consider's A345 or B772LR

(Bloomberg) -- Kingfisher Airlines Ltd., a low-fare carrier run by a billionaire who controls half of India's beer market, may set up a U.S. unit and buy as much as $1.2 billion of long-haul planes to start flights between the two countries. Kingfisher, which included five A380s made by Airbus SAS in its $3 billion order for 15 planes in June, is considering Boeing Co.'s 777 200LR model and the Airbus's A340-500 version, Kingfisher Chairman Vijay Mallya said in Singapore today. The value of the latest order is based on the maximum list price of Boeing's model. ---------- Interesting. Rather speculative too - unless the 345s are second hand from Singapore.

Lufthansa gets a real competitor?

DBA has announced it has taken a 60% stake in LTU. The DBA part will handle domestic flying and LTU the long hauls. Based on the the picture above, it seems that flying DBA is as much fun and Hooters Air. Lucky Germans! Lufthansa's response we are certain will be more muted.

Our first audio interview/Podcast - on IFE

The sound quality is being worked on, and a better version will be loaded as soon as we get it; meanwhile we are excited to share our first audio interview to be blogged. This interview is with Henry DeBey, President of DeltaBeta In-Flight, Inc. (www.deltabeta.com). Henry provides us with a quick look at where we are in the IFE industry and where we might be headed. Readers might be especially interested in Henry's view on iPods as future IFE delivery systems. The file is quite large at 9.7Mb and is in MP3 format. As this process is very new to us, we would really appreciate your feedback. Please email us at info@iag-inc.com. Besides telling us how this worked for you, please provide suggestions for future interviews (people and subjects) as we would like to provide you with what you want to hear.

Asian LCCs and 787

Look for this little gem: "In Macau, start-up budget carrier Viva Macau plans to fly its B767-200 planes initially to Western European destinations like Lisbon and Madrid. These will later be replaced by B787 Dreamliners, according to Andrew Pyne, its CEO." Oh really? Wonder when Viva Macau has delivery slots?

Dubai To Set Up Aviation Leasing Company

(Bloomberg) -- Dubai, prospering from near-record oil prices, plans to invest $15 billion to create a company that will lease planes, develop airports and make aircraft parts to tap into growing demand for air travel in the Middle East and Asia. The family-ruled sheikhdom, which owns the largest Arab airline, may buy as many as 50 wide-body aircraft from Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS during the next four years, said Rashid Al Malik, project director for the planned company, which will be called Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. The new air leasing and finance business will focus on Airbus A380 and A350 planes, and Boeing 777s and 787s in the Middle East and Asia, Dubai said in a statement today.

10,000 bags/day lost in 2005

Amazing story following the link.

SIA works to whip up A380 fever

Interesting site - click Decked in SIA colours, the giant aircraft will dominate the flying display at next week’s Asian Aerospace show in Singapore. To back up this massive photo-opportunity the airline has just launched a Website (www.singaporeair.com/a380) dedicated to the A380. Covering the development history of the A380 to date and SIA’s plans for it, the site also publicises a prize-draw competition that will give show visitors a chance to win scale models of the aircraft in SIA livery.

Airbus credibility tanks

Reuters -- Chinese airlines behind a USD$10 billion plane deal that powered Airbus past Boeing in 2005 orders said they have not paid deposits, as would normally be required to count a deal as a firm order. The planemaker said on Friday, however, that deposits had been paid and that it had satisfied the conditions for reporting the planes as firm orders. "We have not made any down payment, as we still don't know how many A320 jets we will get," said an Air China official in comments echoed by other carriers. A spokesman for Airbus said the deals were logged properly. "All the conditions which we usually set before reporting firm orders have been met. These include government approval and payment of deposits," he said. He declined to give further details. ---------- Ooops! This is really odd. Airbus has mud over its face. The boys (and girls) in Seattle are rolling on the floor, laughing, high-fiving each other and yelling "we told you so". Coming after the 380's wing test failure, the 350's poor sales and 380 delivery issues, the EADS PR department will be going into a period of sleepness nights. Spin meisters will work overtime. The aviation press will be all over this (ATI, ATW, FI and even the Seattle-I). The British media will be espeially biting. Ouch. The Chinese are big on the "saving face" thing - they will not look upon this PR fracas kindly.

Ryan-yawn-air

Huh? Oh, sorry, nodded off for a minute. More Ryanair but don't read it, it's not worth clicking... well go on then, it's a great site and worth your time. I just realised I'm working the weekend. Normal service next week.

Huge ANA order?

IHT -- All Nippon, Japan's second-largest carrier, is poised to place a firm order this month for 53 long-range planes estimated at $13 billion from Boeing. The Tokyo-based airline wants to use the 365-seat 777-300ERs to replace its fleet of Boeing 747 and 777 planes, passing over the Airbus A380. ---------- Just in time for the Asian Airshow?

Bird flu may kill 140 mn, cost $4 trillion

A bird flu pandemic could wipe $4.4 trillion off the global economy and kill 142 million people, according to a worst-case scenario report by Australian academics. As if we don't have enough to worry about. This is going to make SARS look like a practice session. Avian flu may wipe out 1% of global GDP - and if you think that's nothing, you're mistaken. In the US we go into panic when the GDP growth is revised down by tenths of a percent. To lost 1% is devastating.

Airbus A380 test wing breaks

The wing of an Airbus A380 static test suffered a structural failure below ultimate load target during trials earlier this week, but Airbus is confident that it will not need to modify production aircraft. We got the heads up via a search on this site from a person at Goodrich using the search term "a380 wing failure". FI reports -- The airframer has been running load trials on a full scale A380 static test specimen in Toulouse since late 2004 (pictured below). After completing “limit load” tests (ie the maximum loads likely to experienced by the aircraft during normal service), progressively greater loads have been applied to the specimen towards the required 1.5 times the limit load. Engineers develop finite element models (FEM) to calculate the load requirements. “The failure occurred last Tuesday between 1.45 and 1.5 times the limit load at a point between the inboard and outboard engines,” says Airbus executive vice president engineering Alain Garcia. “This is within 3% of the 1.5 target, which shows the accuracy of the FEM.” He adds that the ultimate load trial is an “extremely severe test during which a wing deflection of 7.4m (24.3ft) was recorded”. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) says that the maximum loading conditions are defined in the A380 certification basis. “The aircraft structure is analysed and tested to demonstrate that the structure can withstand the maximum loads, including a factor of safety of 1.5. This process is ongoing and will be completed before type certification.” Pictures from Flight International In this picture you see the wing in the rig. In the test, the wing is pulled up from the tip. Here you see the tip where the most "up" pressure is applied. These wings are very strong and reports say the wing "broke" at 145% of load with a target of 150%. Awful news as this is for Airbus, potential cusomers must be looking at the Boeing 747-8 with renewed interest.

Remember Joe Mangan?

Use this link to get an update. He's gone quiet of late and the 380 is roaring ahead.

Aeroflot's mystery order

Dec 29: Russia's flagship carrier Aeroflot, which has floated tenders for long-haul aircraft in July, has closed on Boeing for 22 jets worth $2.5 billion, according to Russian business publications Tuesday. Jan 26: Russian flag carrier Aeroflot-Russian Airlines (RTS: AFLT) will announce the winner of a tender for the right to deliver long-distance planes to Russia in mid-March, Aeroflot general director Valery Okulov told a press conference at Interfax on Thursday. In an interview with FLUG REVUE, Aeroflot's CEO said "We will place our order before the end of 2005". Flight International points out the final order needs Kremlin approval. The saga never seems to end. Today there are rumors that Airbus is offering Aeroflot $100m in discounts on the pending $3bn order. Given Boeing's wins at Air Canada and Qantas and strong whispers it will win at Singapore, Airbus sees the Aeroflot as a "must win". Word is also out the order has been increased from 22 to 28 planes.

737 - #5,000 delivered

With more than 4,100 airplanes in service, the 737 represents more than a quarter of the total worldwide fleet of large commercial jets flying today. An amazing achievement! Well done Boeing.

Hammering Ryanair continues

USAToday -- Ryanair touts flights to London; 400-mile drive not mentioned It’s not uncommon for U.S. low-cost airlines to fly to “secondary airports.” JetBlue, for example, flies to Long Beach, Calif., instead of Los Angeles. And Southwest offers service to both the south and north sides of metro Boston with flights to Providence, R.I., and Manchester, N.H. But when it comes to secondary airports, no U.S. airline can hold a candle to European discount giant Ryanair. It often chooses to fly to airports so far from the main city that many consider it misleading when the airline says it serves a destination. Ryanair’s Frankfurt service is one example. The carrier says it offers service to the city, even though it flies only to Hahn Airport –- a 75-mile, 90-minute commute from downtown. “But a new advert for Ryanair tops them all,” writes the Guardian’s news blog. It reports that Ryanair ran an ad in a Norweigan newspaper that touted service to “London Prestwick.” If you’ve never heard of London’s Prestwick airport, there’s a good reason. Prestwick International Airport is actually some 400 miles north of London, near the Scottish city of Glasgow. The Guardian writes that Prestwick airport officials were “not aware of any customers who had turned up expecting to have arrived in -- or at least reasonably near -- the British capital.” -------- Ryanair can't get a brek this week - except from us. As this link clearly shows, the flights from Oslo are shown to Prestwick in Scotland. Knowing Ryanair's penchant for humor....oh well never mind. The "old media" has the bit between its teeth now and is out to get Ryanair no matter what.

RFID - the next big thing

Jennifer Tomblin and Amal Graafstra have made the most modern declaration of their affection for each other, with implanted electronic chips that allow them unfettered access to each other's lives. It's called Radio Frequency Identification, or RFID. Both have had a small electronic chip embedded under their skin that grants access to each other's front doors and home computers. Yes, this is something out of the ordinary. But readers here will be seeing a lot more on this subject. This technology is awesome. Already you can unlock some cars with keys and even start certain cars without keys. You will want RFID because of its ability to simplify your world.

El Al Airlines installs anti-missile systems on passenger aircraft

El Al Israel Airlines has installed anti-missiles systems on its passenger aircraft, completing an overhaul launched after a 2002 attempt to shoot down a plane, security sources said on Wednesday. In the US, FedExand American are part of a test of similar technology. Good for ElAl that they are leading on this. Especially given the post lower down from SE Asia about airports being unsafe.

Our Fly Girl on Ryanair

Our favourite stewardess has posted on Ryanair recently. This post links across, and has a neat link to the Belfast Telegraph, home country of... Ryanair! She has her original post here and boy they have plenty of comments too.

Pilots Report Seeing Laser Lights While Flying

This is very troubling. It is dangerous to anyone on or near the airplane. Shining a laser pointer at a plane is a felony. Anyone found guilty of this crime should be sentenced to stay inside the US airline system for 10 years. That means the guilty party may not leave an airport - they have to stay flying for 10 years. This punishment will deter most normal people who play with these lasers. And the not-normal ones, I hear you ask? You'll read about them here under "Dummy of the Week".

Global Internet users are expected to reach 1.4 billion

This forecast was shared by Reza Behnam, managing director, Yahoo! Southeast Asia, one of the speakers in the Travel Distribution Summit Asia 2006, being held in Singapore. In his presentation, “Search, the new travel distribution channel”, Behnam said that Asia Pacific is expected to account for 423 million Internet users, excluding China, of the total one billion base at the end of 2006. He added that Asian consumers are looking for community, content and search. Referring to the `Sweet Spot’ in South Asia, he shared, “By triangulating the growth caused by macro-trends in travel, advertising and the Internet, we are predicting a 30 percent CAGR for South Asian countries in online travel advertising over the next three years. This will be as high as 50 percent CAGR for South East Asia and India, but more like 20 percent for Australia.” Referring to various sources for the data on US, he shared that there were over 35 million travel searchers in April 2005; over 8.9 million of these searchers converted in the online channel, driving $6.6B in travel sales from April to June 2005 and 20 percent of all travel transactions linked to initial search referral. On meta-search, he added that there are several conveniences for users such as single entry-point access to multiple sites, clustered travel search results provide ease of scanning and immediate exposure to multiple product facets. “There are highly qualified leads – serious buyers close to making purchase, high visibility directed to focused users and pay for performance,” he said from marketing opportunity perspective. Adding that search marketing is essential to the travel marketer, Behnam said, “Search helps marketing and sales goals. Channel travelers are turning to search first and with higher frequency, it’s highly measurable, effective and efficient, offers flexibility and raises brand awareness.” In terms of level of targeting and users participation, Internet search and meta-search falls in highly active category. In the same session, focusing on search, Crid Yu, head of Hong Kong and SE Asia, Google referred to the Google Network touching consumers at all points of travel from the cycle of inspiration to Internet and Research, consideration, travel booking, pre-trip planning and logistics till post-trip engagement.

Losing your bags

KLM is the Euro airline that looses the most luggage. Numbers come from the Association of European Airlines (AEA). On average 19 bags per 1,000 don't make it to their destination. Read more at this link The manner in which airlines move and track luggage has stayed unchanged for the last decade. Seemingly innocuous, this piece of information is quite important. In the United States approximately 5 per 1,000 bags get lost, which is up substantially from 4 per 1,000 in 2002. The amount airlines have to compensate for lost luggage has doubled from $1,250 to $2,500 in the US. Currently the industry standard is to use bar codes on bag tags. But these tags tear, and often entire handles rip off and it is on bag handles that the tags are attached. A simple review of the condition of bags arriving off the baggage system at airports demonstrates how bags are mistreated and mangled while in the hands of airlines. Even if 99.5% of bags arrive with their owners at the same destination, airlines pay heaps in compensation. SITA reports one US airline pays $100m annually in compensation for lost baggage. Wisely it did not identify the airline. We estimate compensation by airlines for lost baggage is a problem worth $6bn to $9bn annually. Airlines (read IATA) and airports took 15 (!) years to come up with a bar code solution. From the above you see its not foolproof. Although RFID technology exists, the industry has yet to settle on a standard that improves the loss ratio. So your bags continue to travel on a PNR separate from yours. Its a wonder they get to where you're going as often as they do.

Rolls Royce Trent 1000 for 787

Rolls-Royce yesterday completed the first ground run of its Trent 1000 engine, destined for the Boeing 787 and for the A350. The engine in the picture is not the bleed air version for the A350. The Trent 1000 is capable of generating about 0.5MW of electricity to power the electrical systems used in the 787. The Trent 1000 is one of two engines that will power the 787, the other being the General Electric GEnx. RR says the engine ran "exactly to schedule" against the target date of 14 February, which was set in 2003 at the launch of the project.

Boeing enlists California

Boeing has not been successful at getting more C-17 orders. That line has a long supply chain, and parts at the extreme are now running out of work. The C-17 is built in Long Beach, California at the old home of McDonnell Douglas. MD were the orignal creators of the C-17. Long Beach has already lost the 717. Lots of skilled engineers work on these projects. Losses in such a skill pool are almost impossible to replace once they are lost. Boeing does not want to lose these people, and for sure, nor does California. So a master stroke is being played by Boeing. If the C-17 line shuts down, it is offering to move a 767 production to Long Beach for tankers only. Last year 10 767s were delivered and only 19 were ordered. Boeing wants the USAF tanker order which is based on the 767-200. California has the biggest delegation in Congress. No bonus points for guessing how this plays out. Jobs is a non-partisan issue. Very clever move Boeing.

China to order 100 airliners per year

China will buy around 100 airliners a year over the next five years, a civil aviation official said, refuting fears that the supply might exceed demand. Chinese airlines had 863 airplanes last year, which carried about 138 million passengers, China Daily reported. There are only around 11,000 Chinese pilots. By comparison, Delta has 6,000 pilots for a fleet of 496. Continental has 4,100 pilots for 349 planes. Northwest has 5,700 pilots for 468 planes. Notice the ratio is about 12 pilots per plane among these US carriers and is the same in China. Problem is that China is ordering a lot of planes. For every 100 new planes delivered, China will need an additional 1,200 pilots. Qualified, skilled and experienced pilots. As China's economy grows, and given its shortage of good roads, air is the logical way to get people and things around. Its a good time to be a pilot in China.

Eastman’s “Off-The-Wall Comment(s)” ©

One would think that I could learn … even at my age … that the last day of the month is NOT when one starts to write something that is “due” on the last day of the month. By default, OTWC will be late again. Possibly a couple of plane-rides late … since those plane rides are about the only time I get these days to focus on OTWCs. Perhaps January was a “lull month” … but the “excitement” of technology innovation off-set by economic stress of the airlines that has preoccupied us the past few years seems to be tapering off as the industry settles down to transform itself. A “reality” has set in for airlines … costs must be controlled. The economic power of the self-controlled GDS-led distribution channels has been decimated by Internet. And technology improvements make those legacy systems uncompetitive in today’s digitally-driven world. “Reality” is concurrently setting in for the GDSs. Their controlled distribution channels are under serious threat by new lower cost alternatives. Both airlines and competitive intermediary vendors have become aggressive distribution channel competitors. They include GNE’s as well as the direct-link tools. The “talk” is turning into “action;” and industry buyers of these technology tools are now more prone to say “show me” than “when can I have it.” ++++++++++ From TravelWeekly.Com©, January 24, 2005 ++++++++++ ITA: Let the funding begin -- ITA Software ended speculation about whether it will be acquired: The travel technology company and new-entrant GDS landed $62.5 million in financing. Company officials said the financing is the first such cash infusion since Amadeus threw about $1 million in seed money into the kitty in the 10-year-old company’s early days. .... Employees and other unnamed investors -- none are airlines -- have majority control of the company, ITA said. Its two main platforms are its QPX airline pricing and shopping system, used by Alaska Airlines, Alitalia, Continental, US Airways, Galileo, Kayak and Orbitz, and its fledgling alternative distribution system targeting corporate travel agencies. ++++++++++ From Chicago Business (Powered by Crain)©, January 9, 2005 ++++++++++ ...Alex Zoghlin's long-running grudge match with former employer Orbitz Inc. is about to come to a head. Mr. Zoghlin's G2 SwitchWorks Corp. and Orbitz are contenders for $5 billion in airline ticket processing contracts that come up for grabs this year. It's a moment of truth for G2, the Internet company Mr. Zoghlin founded in April 2004 with backing from seven U.S. airlines and two private equity firms. "2006 is what we spent the last two years working for," says Mr. Zoghlin. ++++++++++ From TravelWeekly Technology Newletter©, January 25, 2005 ++++++++++ AIRTRAN AND WORLDSPAN signed a multiyear, full-content agreement that means the low-cost carrier's availability and fares will be available in the GDS. AirTran's schedules and fares were expected to be back in Worldspan Jan. 24 after a several-month absence. The companies said that AirTran will participate in the GDS at the Limited Connect level. A Worldspan spokeswoman said Limited Connect is for carriers that require "limited functionality," but she declined to provide specifics. ++++++++++ From: The Beat ~ a business travel newswire©, January 24, 2006 ++++++++++ Northwest Airlines and Sabre Holdings this morning announced a new agreement that ensures the availability of "all Northwest published fares and inventory, including Web fares," through the Sabre global distribution system for a five-year term. The contract -- signed this month, months before the pair's previous deal was due to expire -- represents the first major extension of three-year deals signed in 2002 and 2003 between GDS providers and a network "legacy" carriers. That Northwest is first is somewhat surprising given the tarnish applied to the Northwest-Sabre relationship following Northwest's attempted "shared GDS fee" in summer 2004. The resulting litigation between the companies--which was stayed in September 2005 due to Northwest's bankruptcy filing--is being settled, they said. …. [Four paragraphs later] …. Northwest vice president of distribution and e-commerce Al Lenza half-joked that if a GDS firm sent "me a bill for $7.50 a ticket, I'd like to start paying that as soon as possible." Depending on certain variables, he said, ticket fees ranged as high as $14. "There are some numbers out there already in the marketplace; Orbitz Supplier Link is $4, and there are other alternatives are in that range. We attempted [the "shared GDS fee"] initiative that resulted in a cost to us in the $5 range. We have had discussions with G2 Switchworks and ITA Software, and we think that if the goal is to be relatively agnostic as to the distribution costs relating to the distribution systems, then that seems to be a range that also works well in terms of the competitive landscape, relative to our own website as well." ++++++++++ Eastman's "Off-the-Wall Comment(s)"© … The ITA piece above begins with the comment, “… let the funding begin.” A more apt reflection might be “… let the ‘digital travel intermediaries’ wars begin.” Besides the four snippets noted above, Orbitz announced its “sub-brand” OrbitzTLC, Expedia proffered a new round of price guarantees and that it would be linked to the Sabre distribution host by summer, and Sabre’s Travelocity acquired full ownership of Zuji from its former airline owners (Asian equivalent of Travelocity). The ITA and G2 Switchworks snippets suggest that these two intermediaries are preparing to launch an all-out front on the traditional GDS channels. It would appear that both have sufficient investor resources. Switchwork’s airline backing may be somewhat subjective financially, but on the other hand, there is a level of access to airlines that was once the forte of the now independent GDSs – without the technology, culture, or embedded process solutions upon which the GDSs are dependent. Concurrently, the traditional GDSs are building their “going forward” financial platforms by finding ways to entice those airlines that had taken aggressive “we-don’t-need-you” (or positioned themselves to leave) postures – back into the fold. And they did this in the face of the lapsing 2006 DCA agreements. The AirTran/Worldspan agreement is similar to the types of agreements that Sabre has with Southwest; in that the service levels and agent response speeds are based on queued-response links with the host systems. The Northwest/Sabre agreement is more interesting in the face of the expiring DCA agreements. It is a fairly long term agreement … five years. Taking at face value, the additional comment’s of Northwest’s Al Lenza noted in the second paragraph of The Beat snippet above, one must assume that Northwest was successful in structuring some sort of structural off-set to the traditional Sabre segment booking fee. It is equally interesting that neither Northwest nor Sabre have expanded further on the details of the agreement. Implicit in that silence may be some sort of “trade.” From: Travel Weekly, 30 January, 2006 ++++++++++ … Another source contended that Sabre’s proposed settlement payment to Northwest may have colored the airline’s view that the contract achieves Northwest’s distribution goals. The settlement payment, plus a small reduction in fees, could have a profound impact on Northwest’s distribution costs, the source said. Northwest is trying to reduce its GDS bill, which was about $150 million in 2005. +++++++++ This would be particularly true if the “settlement” was prorated across the 5 years in terms of a segment fee booking discount – and probably a very apt solution with Northwest in bankruptcy. By settling the pending litigation and/or potential liability with a segment fee discount amortized across five years, Sabre converts its risk to known (not unlike hedging fuel), ensures another five years of (discounted) revenue (not unlike advance purchase prices on airline seats), and shrouds itself from its “favored nation’s clauses” with other airlines behind Northwest’s bankruptcy issues. With Northwest in the “going forward” fold, Sabre is in a much better position to compete in the 2006 DCA renewal competition or intermediary wars without yet having to tip its pricing models. The Northwest agreement with Sabre does not preclude Northwest from using alternative distribution channels. This too is significant. It is interesting to me how little media coverage the airlines push for direct sales via their own GDSs is receiving. Those sales remain focused on capturing Internet users via Web booking tools; but the sophistication of those web booking solutions is ramping up and there is an evolving trend on airline hosts to enable direct booking from agents … and more specifically, volume-direct booking operators (wholesalers, tour operators, consolidators, etc.). As I write this “January 2006” OTWC, the GDSs continue their hold on the volume buyers in large part – because settlement and centralized travel reporting remains dependent on the business processes provided by the GDSs and ARC/BSPs. It is only through these legacy-based accounting systems that the mega-corporations, mega-agencies, and mega-tour operators can reconcile and report on the collective whole of their expanded air travel usage. But for most, this travel data is moved from the GDS-provided accounting systems into contemporary corporate financial systems. A number of corporations (and a few of the mega-agencies) are playing with direct-purchase agreements – some related only to booking, some involving booking and settlement. Orbitz, Travelocity, and Expedia all have the technological capability … but remain dependent on the GDSs for the bulk of their availability and booking services. Still, as the airline’s web services capabilities expand, the GDS dependencies for these digital packagers will wane. The impending push by the GNEs (i.e. ITA, Switchworks, etc.) and the airline’s evolving independent understanding on how to manage the new web technologies, 2006 looks to be a big year of “show me;’ with much less posturing or dreaming. ++++++++++ From AlwayOn Network.Com©, 2005 A review written by Irving Wladawski-Berger of “Let Go to Grow1” [edited by OTWC] ++++++++++ .... Internet, globalization, and deregulation have given rise to an ultra-competitive marketplace in which many products and services have become commodities. …. Of the 172 companies that have appeared in the Fortune 500 list between 1955 and 1995, only 5% grew their revenue above the overall inflation rate, and only 16% of 1,008 companies tracked from 1962 to 1998 have survived. And, this is before the more recent commoditization pressures that the Internet, globalization, and deregulation are now imposing on so many businesses. To survive these pressures, let alone to grow revenue and profits, a business must rise above the commoditization challenges and somehow define a differentiated, compelling value proposition for the marketplace. In a nutshell, businesses must let go of their traditional control mechanisms and organizational practices. They must evolve from the monolithic, hierarchic organizations that have been the norm for companies for the last hundred years but are inadequate for today's fast changing, dynamic marketplace. Instead, they must open up their business by building and participating in value webs with a number of companies, coordinating their individual capabilities to create a collaborative business eco-system. These value webs can only be built on a common business platform, based on componentized, standard interfaces, on top of which each business then adds its unique value. Open, standard business components are the equivalent of interchangeable parts in the manufacturing of products, from computers to consumer electronics to automobiles. It is also the way every successful technology-based infrastructure has been built over the years, from the electric grids, to telecommunication and broadcast networks, to the Internet and World Wide Web. It is, in my opinion, the application of basic engineering principles that have worked so well in discipline after discipline over the years to the world of business. It [is] difficult … for a business to change, even when it has no choice, which accounts for the high proportion of companies that do not survive over time. You are asking a business, its management, and overall workforce to change its very culture, which in all likelihood is the same culture that has accounted for its success in the past. Leadership is absolutely necessary, both to articulate the vision and need for change, and to operationalize the vision and link it to execution. ++++++++++ Eastman's "Off-the-Wall Comment(s)"© … I have not read the book yet … but I did buy it and it is traveling with me today. Whether the book says the same thing that Mr. Wladawski-Berger says it says, I’ll confirm next month. But the very ethos of the edited snippet above reflects accurately on the angst that confronts the airline industry in general; and distribution of travel products specifically. As has often been stated in OTWC previously, the airline seat (hotel bed, cruise cabin, etc.) have been transformed from service offerings to goods to commodities ... particularly in the past few years as Internet and related digital search tools like Google, Yahoo, etc., have become mainstream in society. Still, while the products have transformed, the managements, workforce, or business cultures that Mr. Wladawski-Berger reflects upon from “Let Go to Grow” remain embedded in the industry itself. It IS difficult to change! In just these past six months, the author has experience or learned of specific examples in the travel industry that I will share with you – nameless of course. I suspect that the “shoe will fit” many who read this whether you’re the “example” or not (i.e. there’s no guilt or “that’s us” to be appended beyond what you know of within your own business unit. They are real examples, however. These experiences are largely the result of work with two very different airline clients and a travel consortium. Keep in perspective the reflections in the snippet above about the transforming world … the inability of large companies to change (and the reasons why) and the cultures that abound within these big companies … and in the airline/travel industry, the industry itself. Example #1. A well established airport solutions vendor was asked to make some changes to the software that was to be provided to an airline. The vendor quoted a price for the modifications that exceeded the cost of the airline’s ability to build the solution internally using newer, non-legacy system based technology. When confronted with this “reality” the vendor took the position that it could not adapt its software or it’s pricing to meet the airline’s need. The vendor’s culture did not recognize the threat of alternatives using non-legacy system solutions. The vendor was (and remains) aghast when the airline launched a prototype competitive solution within three weeks. Example #2. Two well established vendors providing different types of revenue audit tools opted to remain firm on their business model and related pricing structure – only to see travel industry client opt for alternative solutions within six months. Both vendors’ pricing and business models failed to recognize the transformations taking place in the industry – instead, expecting traditional legacy system dependencies to force the industry veteran into their fold. Example #3. A highly regarded travel agency consortium/network’s management recognized the evolving trend toward Internet based selling solutions – and sought to find a provider that could meld new technology needs with its traditional agent-based selling structures. The consortium issued an RFP … re-defined its needs to reflect some new needs defined in the responses … and let finalists present to assembled “influencers” from within the organization. The “influencers” simply failed to recognize the changed needs … and opted to go with the long-time traditional provider! Having “sold’ its solution, the “traditional” provider then attempted to dictate the “look-and-feel” of the consortium’s end product. The end result was that the whole transition failed. The vendor’s technology platform could not adapt to the new technology needs … and the consortium’s users could not effectively compete with other entities using newer technologies. Example #4. A large travel agency has three times sought to evolve their product offerings to respond to the inroads of the online agencies. In each case, the agency sought out “brand name” Internet providers to build a GUI. In each case, the agency attempted to integrate its own “team” of experts with the development team. All three efforts failed … because the Internet technologists could not understand the technology base of the industry’s business structure; and the internal team could not translate the traditional business processes of the industry into terms that the Internet providers could understand. The gap between the two technology platforms … and the embedded business processes … proved too great for the disparate cultures. Each of these example failures was driven by culture … the inability to change … or to recognize the need to change. Each culture or business unit reflected their own particular dependency on doing things in the established or proven way ... the way that had been successful in the past. On the other hand, the ability to overcome these cultural obstacles came out of recognizing the need to “let go” of past culture and dependencies. It is, admittedly, a fine balance to “let go” in order “to grow.” Within the airline and travel industry, there are many established business processes that mandate the use of the “traditional” or legacy structures. Decisions to forego those processes can have significant down-stream impact on product, the economics, and culture of any business entity. Such a move must be well thought out. In this era of ever-changing advances in technology, it is incumbent on existing business entities that any such transition be implemented incrementally; one module at a time. Major investments in cultural and business bending enterprise solutions are a risk due to the speed at which knowledge and technology are transforming society. . As noted in the examples above, a mere six months of waiting so transformed the business model as to change the economic viability of the original solutions that were to have been adopted. ++++++++++ Respectfully, \\ Richard Copyright © 2006, The Eastman Group, Inc.

Dummy of the Week #4

I know, I know - its early in the week still. But there's been a few extra weirdos allowed near planes this week. The choice is between the 300lb lady not willing to pay for 2 seats (how about an LD9 Ma'am?), the lady arriving with a human head (was he deadheading?) in her luggage and the man who jumped from his plane (yes without a parachute while on the tarmac). All true stories. I can't figure out the wackiest so here's a link to all three. 300lb deadhead jumper

Delta's fleet changes

A lot of noise in the industry today about Delta letting go of some 767-300s. How can they do this with a focus on international service, people ask? Not much detail out yet, but this is what we hear: - Hawaiian is taking four of the 763s. Delta's domestic 763s are not ETOPS certified and it would cost $2-$4M to certify them. Hawaiian does not need ETOPS from the west coast. Tail numbers are #116-119 and GE-powered. - Given the scarcity of 763ERs on the secondary market new owners might certify to ETOPS anyway. - Delta is likely dumping the 763ERs that are ex-Gulf Air. They acquired 8 from Gulf Air that are oddballs in Delta's fleet. They have entry an door in front of the wing which means only 5 rows of business instead of 6. Due to these 8 in the system the business cabins of the rest of the 45 ERs (with 36 business seats) were being sold at 34 seats in case of an equipment change.

Ryanair declares war

Ryanair Holdings PLC offered 3 million cheap tickets Tuesday as it went on the attack against allegations in a TV program that it has been lax in respecting air safety and security rules. The Channel Four documentary used two undercover reporters working as flight attendants to garner information that it claimed revealed lapses in standards, including passport checks, and overworked and undertrained staff. Ryanair splashed out on advertisements in several British newspapers Tuesday with the heading "An Apology" following the screening of the documentary Monday. But the "apology" was to rival airlines easyJet PLC, British Airways PLC and Aer Lingus as Ryanair released 3 million "zero fare" tickets for travel before the end of May. Passengers pay only airport taxes and charges. French authorities said that Ryanair's planes had been checked by inspectors 33 times in 2005 and three times so far this year without any serious anomalies being found. As we say in America, "Run Michael, Run". This whole storm in a teacup will be turned into a blockbuster marketing success by Ryanair. Sir Richard Branson must be fuming he's not on page one this week. Free tickets? Damn, that's a grand response. Please, Mr. O'Leary come to America because we love mavericks like you.

Channel 4 flop on Ryanair

So it turns out, following the traditional TV model, that there really was no news. Crews are tired. So what, people get tired and nap when they can. Security is lax - not really, typical TV cut out left viewers with a limited view of what really happens. Breaches of safety and security were found but mostly exaggerated. Flight International points out – “The airline is also calling on the UK Advertising Standards Authority to censure Channel 4 for misleading publicity after the network used posed pictured of cabin crew asleep while manning emergency exits. Ryanair says the escape handle on Ryanair's Boeing 737-800 is different to the aircraft configuration shown in the photo. It adds that all Ryanair's aircraft are fitted with double jump-seats and not a single jump seat as shown in the Channel 4 photo.” The expose here is of pathetic journalism. But it’s TV, so your brain is supposed to be dead. Ryanair did not grow to its current position by being dangerous, sloppy and careless. Ryanair is a public company that has to make a profit to stay in business. You can’t say the same of Channel 4.

Fewer Travelers Routed Through 'Hub' Airports

Great story by Scott McCartney (subscription needed) - key points are these: Times are still tough at many big hub airports. While passenger traffic has rebounded from the depths of 2002, some of the nation's biggest airports are still a long concourse away from recovery. More than temporary setbacks, the numbers reflect a shift of millions of passengers away from connecting flights at hub airports to more point-to-point service. While not a revelation, the benefit of this being highlighted is that it underscores what Boeing has been telling anyone who cares to listen. We are moving towards a point-to-point world. Airplanes are efficient enough to allow this - long thin routes are no longer cost-inefficient. The 737 can fly coast to coast and so can the 320. Of course the big movers and shakers in these non-hub flights are LCCs. Roll on the day when the 787 and 350 enable us to avoid international hubs. Given the hassle of dealing with the geniuses at TSA, minimizing one's exposure to airports turns out to be a highly rational thing to do. Flying non-stop is by far more time efficient and LCCs keep it cheap, too. Hubbing, in short, is bad for you. It adds travel hours that you have to endure at large hub airports where the food is marginal - nothing to sneeze at when you get none on-board.

"Our Airports are not safe"

Reuters -- Rocket attacks on commercial airliners are among the biggest terror risks facing the Pacific Rim, prompting a threat review by countries in the region, the Philippine external security chief said on Tuesday. "Our airports are not safe," Benjamin Defensor, chairman of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) counter-terrorism task force, told a briefing for foreign journalists in Manila. A shoulder-fired rocket was supposed to be an air defence weapon, said Defensor, a former head of the Philippine army. "But it can also be used against commercial aircraft carrying civilians," he said. "That is the bigger threat we have found." Defensor said all 21 members of APEC -- which includes the United States, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, Australia and Canada -- were checking at least one of their major airports for weaknesses and would report back by the end of this year. Large concentrations of people had sprung up around airports across Asia, putting residents at risk from rocket attacks as planes take off and land, he said. "Are we going to say that we will prevent people from going to where the aircraft are, as they have done in Los Angeles?" Defensor said. "These are the things that will form part of our analysis and we will make a proper recommendation." The traffic of militants was heaviest along the Pacific Rim's maritime borders but he warned that the Philippines, fighting a Muslim insurgency in the south, did not have the equipment to adequately monitor movements among its 7,100 islands. "We have to make do with what we have," he said. "We do not have fighter jets. We do not have the radar we are looking for." At more than 36,000 km long, the Philippine coastline is seen as a weak link in the Asian war on terror, allowing the regional network Jemaah Islamiah to keep close links with local Muslim rebels on the southern island of Mindanao. The Philippines, Washington's closest security partner in the region, is on high alert this week for attacks to coincide with the anniversary of last year's Valentine's Day bombings by Abu Sayyaf guerrillas that killed 12 people. ------------ Avian flu and now this. SE Asia is not making their tourism business especially attractive.

Nokia launches Net call handsets

VOIP is coming to your next cell phone. Cheaper calls. Using VOIP phone calls are converted into packets of data which are transmitted down the same wires used to browse the internet, promising cheaper calls than across standard phone networks.

Ryanair Follow-Up

In an astonishing series of public posts on their own website, Ryanair seem to be bleeding from the eyes over UK Channel 4's documentary about them. This post links to the Channel 4 site, which in turn has some more eye-bleeding feedback from Ryanair customers. A recent post on the Ryanair site indicates they are now furious that Channel 4 has staged a photograph for its ad campaign to publicise their documentary, in a non-Ryanair plane! This still has the 'storm in a tea cup' feel to it, but I have the documentary on as I type, and it makes some particularly worrying allegations. One of the main ones, other than staff (including pilot) fatigue, is the failure to check passports and life jackets on many flights due to a rush to clear the runway. I am sure this will unfold overnight in the UK, and it is very high in entertainment value, but I am puzzled as to what this says about a typical Ryanair experience, and whether the company has breached any rules or not. It seems likely that they are 'guilty' of pushing those rules to their limits, but I suspect they are far from being alone. Rules are rules, whether you push them to the limit or not, and if this episode results in tighter rules, one thing is certain: all your ticket prices are going up!

Gizmo - alternative to Skype?

Airfax -- Heard about Gizmo? Probably the best way to find out about Gizmo, the penny VOIP client, is to go to www.gizmoproject.com and sign up. If you have been following the VOIP wars, you will find Gizmo quite interesting. Check out this link for a graphical overview http://www.gizmoproject.com/screen-shots.html. Most importantly, Gizmo is FREE while calling from computer to computer, using voice and Instant Messaging (IM) to anywhere! No phone handset needed, just use your computer microphone/headset and download and install the client. Yes, it works on dialup modem connections (33Kbps worked fine for IM but voice would be better at higher speeds). We also should note that Gizmo seems to work best with a headset as the feedback from our laptop speakers feed into the built-in microphone and caused cutouts. Broadband connections were stupendous and free. Look out telephone providers, Wi-Fi connections are now free phone/IM links and the Gizmo solution looks to be very, very hot! They booked over 300,000 users in a couple of months and as word spreads, they will be swamped soon. Gizmo does not use proprietary data protocols (the wave of the future) and will eventually be IMing with the most all of the big boys (they have a hookup with Google already). If they can add features like Google did, they have the potential to be the Google of VOIP. You can call POTs with Gizmo (plain old telephones), but you will pay 1 US cent per minute to connect (we assume that calls to cell phones are priced at 1 cent also). Gizmo seems to be easy and inexpensive compared to other VOIP solutions: Gizmo Project: 1 cent, Skype: 2.1 cents, Yahoo Messenger: 2 cents. MSN Messenger: 2.3 cents, AOL Instant Messenger: $18.99 per month + 4 cents per minute, Google Talk: Cannot call U.S. phones. The interface and the easy installation were great pluses. Now, about the IFE connection. Firstly, if you've got bandwidth, you have a free domestic and international phone/IM line. While data service providers that supply Internet bandwidth to the aircraft could probably filter their passenger connections, they run the risk of a blog/Podcast firestorm! Yes, security may be an out, but dont underestimate the Geek factor - they figure this stuff out for breakfast. This may mean that the connectivity providers will have to develop a pricing algorithm that takes all these new under-the-wire services into account, or...you get the message. We think an all-you-can-eat pricing policy will also win out. Buy your in-air connectivity time online, in the air or on the ground, use your credit card online. Sign up for a year and use as much as you want. Heck, airlines might want to cut deals with Gizmo! Think about it, passengers using headphones are a plus if you are into cell phone usage on board. Headsets and boom microphones will undoubtedly be quieter than trying to out-yell the cabin noise. But the real killer app is Instant Messaging! No talking, just quiet key clicking.. sweet! PS When you sign up for the free Gizmo service they send you 20 incredible things you can do with the service like recording, conference call, music on hold and more. -------- Using the echo test on Gizmo, we found the sound quality to be substantially worse than Skype.

10,000 airline jobs available

Rediff.com -- With the expanding aviation pie, a plethora of opportunities is opening up for cabin crew, including airhostesses, in India and with the international airlines. Airlines in India have a combined fleet of 178 planes, with an average of six cabin crew. In the West, airlines like Ryan and CanAir have fleets of over 1,000 planes each. "We are aiming to achieve similar levels. The potential is tremendous," says Ajay Jasra of Spice Jet. "An estimated 10,000 vacancies are expected to be created this year for cabin crew," says Kohli, chairman of Frankfinn, an airhostess training academy. ---------- The entire food chain of aviation jobs in India is exploding. Opportunity abounds.

The geared turbofan

Pratt & Whitney has an enviable heritage. Going back to Bill Boeing's origins in the business, along with United Airlines and Boeing. Unfortunately this company, once the king of aero engins, is now #3. But they are not taking this lying down. The company has spent 10 years of research and over $350 million in development costs coming up with a geared turbofan. The engine will be known as the PW8000 and be based on the PW6000. Its design reduces operating costs up to 10%, reduces fuel burn 9%, cuts noise levels significantly and boosts reliability by eliminating more than half the foils in the compressor and turbine sections. As this picture shows there are a lot less parts. The engine's fan which produces most of the thrust, is driven through a reduction gearbox. Typically this is directly connected to the rest of the engine. A gearbox between the fan and low-pressure compressor and turbine allows P&W to select the best possible operating speed for each engine section. This allows P&W to reduce the number of engine stages and parts. Fans operate best at slower speeds while compressors and turbines run more efficiently at high speeds. The gearbox allows the fan, compressors, and turbines to achieve their most efficient operating speeds; meaning a quieter engine with better fuel burn and fewer parts to maintain. The gearbox design also allows for a larger fan on the PW8000 providing it with a 11:1 bypass ratio. The PW8000 features 13 stages compared with 20 for typical engines powering the same class of airplane. To enhance the efficiency of engines, basically, a high propulsive coefficient is needed and this can be achieved through raising the bypass ratio. Bypass ratio means the ratio of the mass air flow of the inner cycle-produced by compressor, combustor and turbine-to that of the second cycle produced by the fan. Current engines have bypass ratios between 7:1 and 8:1. Bypass ratios higher than that, far beyond 10:1, can be achieved using geared turbofan engines. Even higher ratios are found on unducted fans. The PW8000 covers a range of 25,000-35,000 lb of thrust for aircraft carrying between 120 and 180 passengers. This puts is squarely in the market for the next generation of 737 and 320. P&W is going to make this engine work. Many believe that P&W cannot pull this off on their own and will need to cooperate with partner Rolls Royce as part of IAE. Clearly SNECMA and GE are not going to roll over. SNECMA and GE own the Boeing 737 fleet now. They have a good share of the 320 series too. This is going to be a great fight. P&W has laid its cards down with good cost reductions based on the geared turbofan.

TV, Video Investments Don't Pay Off

Bloomberg -- Shareholders of Vodafone Group Plc and T-Mobile International AG, Europe's biggest mobile-phone companies, say investments in television and video services aren't paying off. Most consumers find mobile services increasingly confusing and refrain from buying and using so-called third-generation, or 3G, handsets and services, according to a study by London-based researcher YouGov. ----------- Why is this so hard to understand? The most compelling features are Internet-focused. We cite the roaring sucess of the Blackberry as evidence. You cannot simply toss the technology out there and expect people to "get it." Of course we also believe that TV content generally continues its miserable slide into meaningless drivel. If the focus could be on news and sport, perhaps users will see a benefit. Why else would you watch content on small screens?

Avian flu update

Use this BBC link to track this flu as it migrates. We have written about this over and over. Please email info@iag-inc.com for a copy of an advisory written by T2Impact on things you want to consider as this epidemic moves west. This is serious and not to be fobbed off as somethign silly.

Wireless to organize -- and maybe save -- lives

We are pretty strong on emerging tech. So this story really rings a bell, so to speak. Wireless is the coming thing in tech. RFID is something we are studying now with interest. Preliminary data from a current survey indicates interest among travelers. Airports and airlines will want to control it of course - as is their desire with everything that enters their orbit. But theirs is not the primary interest. Consumers drive technology adoption. More on this subject later.

Aviation blogs of note

Air Canada pilot blog - A strange place to visit... can't figure it out yet. Lots of stock charts and stuff about pay. MRO Blog - all about maintenance it appears Niraj Shah - views on the travel industry particulary the GDS world Flight International - great pics and excellent insight Neil MacLean on Travel PR - Good stuff James Wallace - Seattle- PI's man on aviation. We know he's hot, often our site gets hits based on something he said that we quoted. Enplaned - Biting, sharp and smart - no doubt read by airine managers the world over daily. Avions de ligne in French but translated using Google. A great site with excellent images.

Protecting Aviation Heritage - a good thing

Readers are aware that we love technology. New stuff is great because it makes multi-taksing possible and improves effective use of time. But there comes a time when it is important to look back where you've come from. A story now about such a time. In the latest Flight International there is a letter regarding Britian's haste in putting all Concordes into museums. Not one is being left in flying condition for obviously non-commercial use. We sympathize with the writer of said letter. The link above is to a story about a Super Connie in Canada potentially being bought by Seattle's Museum of Flight (a great visit if you go that way). Now I must admit to something of a soft spot for the Connie. Personally, I believe this may be the most beautiful thing with wings. The graceful lines just do it for me. This picture shows the lines to good effect. For those of you nostalgic for this plane, we recommend this link to a site with great shots and history on these planes. Protect the heritage because its soon gone and there's nothing to show the kids about how things used to be. Walking through Air Force One at Seattle's Museum of Flight was wonderful. If you don't protect your culture you will end up without one.

Dirty Planes, Tired Staff at Ryanair?

Those in Europe may wish to watch Channel 4 in the UK this Monday. There is an extended documentary as part of the Dispatches series, detailing recent claimed lapses at the 'budget' airline, Ryanair. The company's defence and detailed written correspondence can be found on their own website. It is a little hard to find though... try here.

A quick read of the correspondence published by Ryanair does have the whiff of panic about it. They have asked for live or 'as-live' un-edited interviews and statements to be broadcast, whilst at the same time they must have known that the Dispatches documentary team would not have the power to sanction these, it is the responsibility of broadcaster Channel 4. And all of their submissions are heavily caveated with lines such as 'of course, if this is all true, we will be just as surprised as your viewers and will fully investigate.' Such allegations, especially coming off-peak season, will (I confidently predict) have no effect on Ryanair's sales or profits at all, which I find the most alarming aspect. I stopped flying budget after a horrific experience with EasyJet in which even I (a usually calm and relaxed passenger) nearly lost my breakfast over Nice harbour. Thanks, Stelios!

Drunken Pilots

This is breaking news so there is little coverage but an American Airlines pilot has been arrested at Manchester International Airport, UK, on suspicion of being drunk. This seems to be increasingly common, but the most worrying aspect is that the pilots always seem to be intercepted just moments from taking off... this may be the way the media reports such stories, but I always have the image of a pilot stumbling around, stinking of alcohol, his plane veering aimlessly off the runway and down the road before anyone notices. Can this really be?!

Airbus 350 goes on diet

A350-900 Word drifted our way that Airbus put the 350 on a serious diet. The airplane now is lighter per seat than the 787. Which is unusual as Airbus planes have typically been heavier than Boeing equivalents. This means that it is possible to make an alloy airplane lighter than a composite. Perhaps Boeing has over-engineered the 787, just in case? Its early days; the fight is still on and the weight saving will continue for both planes.

USAirways converts Embraer order

Bloomberg -- US Airways Group Inc. said it agreed with Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, the world's fourth biggest aircraft maker, to convert orders for a smaller plane into orders for a bigger aircraft. --------- USAirways will convert a previous order for 57 EMBRAER 170s, which can seat as many as 70 passengers, into 25 orders for EMBRAER 190, which can seat as many as 100 passengers. The amendment also includes up to 50 options to other aircraft in the Embraer 170/190 family. Deliveries will resume in November 2006. Embraer must be thrilled it decided on this aircraft size when it did. Bombardier totally missed this segment and now is probably too late. Boeing's 717 failed, Airbus' 318 has stalled and the Sukhoi RRJ looks shaky. Without a competitor in sight Embraer is cashing in. Given network carrier interest in North America the 190 family seems to have a good future.

BBC on bloggers

For many in the "mainstream media", as bloggers call us, weblogs are at best a nuisance and at worst dangerous. They are seen as the rantings and ravings either of the unbalanced or the tedious. ----------- Rantings, ravings, unbalanced and tedious? Actually its a great piece and we recommend it. Most visitors to this blog come from corporations - you can share this BBC piece internally. And if any of those four words apply to us, please let us know.

Real US-Africa service at last!

USAToday -- Delta Air Lines, the nation's third-largest carrier, announced Thursday proposed service from Atlanta to Africa. The company said that if the new routes to Dakar, Senegal, and Johannesburg, South Africa, are approved by the Department of Transportation, Delta would become the only traditional U.S. carrier with scheduled service between the United States and the African continent. Delta expects the new service to be used by 130,000 passengers a year, said Jim Whitehurst, the airline's chief operating officer. ----------- Data suggests that the South Africa-inbound market is about the same size as Poland at 120,000 and the US-outbound market is about 260,000. Combined the market is close to 400,000. Incumbent carrier SAA has a monopoly and does not try hard. Delta has been code sharing in this market for some time and knows its potential as well as anyone. SAA will have to work very hard to keep its customers. Delta is taking a low risk here, much the same as its doing with new service to Israel. SAA is experiencing a decline in domestic revenue because of aggressive competition from budget carriers, some of which have started flying to destinations in the region previously serviced only by SAA. These rivals include Comair, part owned by British Airways. If SAA is having a tough time with small rivals, its going to have an awful time with Delta.

Dummy of the week #3

Various sources -- A Miami man apparently hanged himself in an airplane lavatory during a United Airlines flight from Washington, D.C. to Los Angeles, and the plane was diverted to Denver after his body was discovered, police said Thursday. The Denver medical examiner's office identified the man as Gerald Georgettis, 56, and said his body was found on Wednesday. Medical examiner's spokeswoman Michelle Weiss-Samaras said an autopsy was planned. Police detective Virginia Lopez said no other passengers were ever in danger. "Right now, everything leads us to believe the male involved did commit suicide," she said. United officials did not immediately return a call. The man was apparently accused of torching a North Miami-Dade car dealership because he was unhappy with the deal he got on a car killed himself aboard a flight from Washington D.C. to Los Angeles, officials confirmed Thursday. He plowed the new car into the showroom glass, then set the business on fire, Miami-Dade police. He worked for the city of North Miami Beach and handed in his resignation on Monday -------- Only in America. But why chose an airplane bathroom? Given the size of the airborne commodes, he must have been rather short. By the way, he managed to get by the TSA. Imagine if he decided to take the passengers with him on the next leg of his trip - say opened the door? Sorry to be so crass, but its only once per week we do this. There were two this week because we slipped last week.

Bird Flu update - free Advisory

T2Impact Ltd has prepared an advisory for Corporations and Travel Agencies to give to their clients and reservation teams on the possible UN WHO response and likely rules in the event of an outbreak of the H5N1 Avian Flu (also known as Bird Flu)in the human population as a result of Human to Human spread of the disease. Based on our discussions with the authorities we believe that appropriate contingency plans need to be drawn up. In this short briefing a series of recommendations are offered. This briefing is available at no charge from T2Impact Ltd. Please contact in confidence our security team at the following email address: Security@T2Impact.com Click ----- Its free - grab one now. A caution from David Nabarro, UN Coordinator for Bird Flu. The response from the WHO is very clear. If a country shows H2H – Human to Human – transmission of Bird Flu – they will quarantine the whole region. The impact on air transportation will be immense. The quarantine will last 21 days. Bird Flu has now reached Nigeria. Email T2Impact already.

Airline branding & designs

The following two pictures are of a US airline and a Saudi Arabian airline. The former was branded by Aerobrand. Did the Saudis copy this pixel idea?

Sukhoi RRJ loses a customer

Interesting piece on FI' site: "...Russian manufacturers, including Sukhoi, have not yet mastered how to work with customers, be they major Russian airlines or Western lessors." This comment rings true every time, in every business. A few stories down, we note that McDonnell Douglas suffered from the same illness. Will Bombardier remain interested or even help save Sukhoi from itself?

India's military aviation stretches

Every now and then we come across something that is non-commercial but piques our interest. This is one of those. "India sent its Tu-142s to track two Kilo class submarines that are on their way to China. The submarines, mounted on a massive Merchant Vessel Tai an Kou, left St Petersburg, passed through the Atlantic Ocean and reached the Cape of Good Hope where the Bears track them." Russian Tu142 (NATO codename Bear) Its very far to fly from India to the Cape of Good Hope - essentially Cape Town. The Tu142 has a range of 16 hours. All to take pictures of two Russian subs bought by China. But there's more. Times of India -- "In a remarkable act of long-range maritime snooping, Navy's reconnaissance aircraft and spy drones detected, tracked and photographed a spanking new Chinese destroyer and a tanker traversing through the Indian Ocean region this weekend. Sources said the newly-commissioned Sovremenny class destroyer, built for the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) at Russia’s St Petersburg-based North Shipyard, was "picked up" as soon as it entered the Arabian Sea from the Red Sea. A Tupolev-142M long-range maritime patrol aircraft, flying from the Goa naval airbase, spotted the Chinese destroyer and the accompanying tanker off Yemen’s Socotra Island, located east of the Gulf of Aden, almost 2,300 km away from the Indian mainland." India must be very nervous.

Russian plane designs

Have you ever wondered about the similarity between Russian designs and Western designs? There's not too much to wonder - Russians seem to prefer copying designs. It sure is cheaper. Take a look at this example and decide. Tu-204 B-757 If that's not obvious, how about these two? Proposed Sukhoi T-50 - "Sukhoi is spending too much on developing the Russian Regional Jet (RRJ) instead of backing advanced military programmes, says Russian air force commander Gen Vladimir Mikhailov." We didn't realize that copying was so capital intensive. F-22 Raptor

Final 717 being built

The last McDonnell Douglas product comes to an end, plane #156 for AirTran. Basically an awesome little plane, the MD95 as it was first known, never got the traction it needed. MD was at the end of its life and could not get the little plane to sell as well as it could have. There were natural customers for this plane - Northwest being the most obvious. Boeing adopted the plane and renamed it, but was not going to push the design. AirTran wanted a -300 but Boeing only offered the 737. They were not going to let the 717 eat into 737 territory. Unfortunately the MD line withered in the end. The MD11 dissapointed with a 5% range problem that was never fixed. (But try get your hands on one today; its an awesome freighter) This led to order cancellations from influential carriers such as Singapore. Loyal customers like American and Delta were irritated enough to limit their orders. Without the critical mass, MD was doomed. Robert Crandall's ravings at MD did the manufacturer a power of no-good, too. Interesting historical note: American wanted a two engined DC10, Douglas wouldn't listen. Lo and behold! The A300 was in like Flint. (moral - listen to your customers) The MD90 (above), a replacement for the MD80 series, was also a great plane. At the time (maybe even today) it was the quietest large airplane. Indeed it was cleared to fly in and out of Orange County airport without restrictions. Note the large engines, which are the same as on the 320. Rumor was that Delta's MD90s had the highest dispatch rate of any airplane in their fleet. Another commercial aviation chapter is closed.

iPod rejoinder

Colorado Aviation News has a podcast. This is an example what is possible. We live in a time where traditional media is seing mass defections to other sources of information. That's why you're here, right? As media splits into ever smaller niches and consumers are better able to target their interests, this delivery system will grow rapidly. Accessing 100 chanels of TV is quite common these days. On the podcast.net site type in "aviation" on their search bar. There are eight aviation related podcasts to listen to. Another great spot for aviation related podcasts is www.thirtythousandfeet.com - click

iPod Marches Onward

Since my last gratuitous plug on Apple and my Technologies blog (mark the plug again) I have been inundated with ideas and new angles on the iPod as IFE provider story. I have made new contacts as far away as Australia (thanks Dirk) and found links as exciting as the one on IT Conversations, and based a whole future podcast episode (plug!) on IFE. It never stops, and it only goes to show that somehow, sometime, the iPod is going to take over from George W Bush and rule America. The iPod will ruthlessly cut out the middle man (you and me) and preside over a dictatorship in which votes are counted in Singles sales, and podcasting replaces oil as the next big business scarce commodity. Not quite, but you get the picture. Keep an eye out, and I'll try to keep you posted.

The Leahy Memo

John Leahy, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Der Spiegel, in a report published this week, quotes from a fiery internal Airbus memo written by Leahy in which he blasts strategic mistakes made by Airbus in its showdown with Boeing. "In the view of the investors, Boeing has taken over the leadership in all airplane categories," according to an English translation of the Leahy memo, which the magazine said is dated Nov. 10, 2005. Airbus could fall even further behind Boeing, Leahy warned, and his memo suggested an aggressive Airbus PR campaign "to win back lost territory," Der Spiegel said. The magazine said Airbus unofficially suggested that the memo was deliberately exaggerated to galvanize Leahy's colleagues. Although Airbus is delivering more planes than Boeing, and has won the order battle each year since 2001, many industry analysts believe Boeing ended 2005 in a much better position than its rival, owing in large measure to the sales success of its 787 Dreamliner and the 777, which is crushing the Airbus A340 in market share. Leahy's memo was sent to Airbus CEO Gustav Humbert and four other high-level managers in the company, the magazine said. The A340 family is the airplane model that is "worrying us the most," Leahy wrote in his memo, according to the magazine. --------- Hmmm. This will set tongues wagging across the industry.

SAA wants Miami again

South African Airways is reviewing its use of Atlanta as a hub with Chicago as a replacement, when its codeshare with Delta Air Lines ends in September, according to GM flight operations, Captain Colin Jordaan. This follows SAA formally joining Star Alliance on April 1 and Chicago being a hub of Star Alliance partners, US Airways and United Airlines. “All indications at this stage are that it will be Chicago and the simulations that we have run show us that in fact we will have more connections from Chicago than from Atlanta” he said. Jordaan said SAA also would “vigorously explore” a connection between Cape Town and Miami, but this depended on what support it would get from its US Star Alliance partner carriers out of Miami. --------- MIA would be a good thing as there is already too much concentration around the north east with NY and DC. Atlanta was reasonable as a substitute, but required a tech stop in Sal Island. MIA is within non-stop reach from Cape Town. It also means the airline is less dependent on moving all its international flights from Jo'burg.

The Willies

British Airways CEO Willie Walsh on conference call with analysts:"The airline is in talks with Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS to ``evaluate our potential options'' for buying planes, Walsh said. ``We have no plans to purchase any new long-haul aircraft at this stage. We continue to improve the performance of our existing fleet by adjusting the network to maximize the utilization of aircraft.'' Later in the same call he spoke of British Airways talking to Boeing and Airbus but that it is awaiting a move into a new Heathrow terminal in 2008 to take long-haul plane deliveries. ------------ Deliveries? What deliveries? If you get deliveries in 2008, you need to put in an order now, or this year at least. So what will it be - no orders (making part two a lie) or orders this year (making part one a lie)? By the way long haul deliveries in 2008 means Boeing 777s or Airbus 330/340s. We don't see 380s as an option for BA. But we have been wrong before.

Good Bye 747SR

All Nippon Airways will retire its last B747SR in March after the aircraft completes a flight from Kagoshima to Tokyo Haneda. The legendary aircraft, which ANA fitted with an all-economy cabin that could accommodate 500 passengers, first flew for ANA in 1979 on domestic routes from Haneda. Scores of sentimental passengers have booked a special package with ANA to be part of the last B747SR’s final flight in Japan.

Connexion grabs Air China

Air China, the leading international air carrier in the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Connexion by Boeing, a business unit of The Boeing Company, today announced they have reached a preliminary agreement to provide real-time, high-speed connectivity to air travelers traveling to and from China. The announcement today in Beijing includes as many as 15 firm and optional retrofit installations on Air China's Boeing 747-400 aircraft, and other long-haul aircraft models to be determined at a later date. Financial terms were not disclosed. ---------- A good choice by Air China. Now we wonder if Connexion will do a "Google throttle" on content so as not to offend the PRC's gnomes. Lets see how they respond to that.

Emirates & Qantas - for real

Sydney Morning Herald -- Emirates is tipped to use British Airways' exit from Melbourne next month and Qantas's lack of services into mainland Europe as the key planks in its lobbying effort aimed at more than doubling its flights into Australia to 98 a week. "While other carriers pull out, we actually want to increase our services," said the airline's head of East Asia and Australasian commercial operations, Richard Vaughan. Emirates announced its plans this week to launch twice-daily services into Perth in September, which will increase its flights from the current 42 to the 49 weekly services the Federal Government allows the carrier to fly into Australia. "We have a carrier pulling out of Melbourne next month called BA and we actually want more services into there," Mr Vaughan said at the opening of Emirates' first- and business-class lounge at Sydney Airport yesterday. Emirates rates Sydney and Melbourne among its top three most profitable long-haul routes. Since beginning services to Australia in 1996, Emirates has built up 5.7 per cent share of the international market. Qantas's share has fallen from 34.7 to 28.2 per cent in the past four years. Citing Qantas's lack of services to European destinations to which it has rights, Mr Vaughan noted the Australian carrier had actually cancelled services such as Rome rather than increase them. Qantas serves only one mainland European city, Frankfurt. "What would you rather do?" Mr Vaughan asked. "Go one-stop to Rome via Dubai or go two stops with Qantas with back service flying British Airways from London to Rome?" In light of the Federal Cabinet's review of aviation policy, which is focusing primarily on whether to allow Singapore Airlines on the Qantas-dominated Sydney to Los Angeles route, Mr Vaughan said: "What we would like to see is a positive outlook from Canberra that they will look favourably for additional applications for traffic rights." He said Emirates would send a delegation to Canberra to argue its case in September. Qantas has argued that government majority-owned carriers such as Emirates and Singapore Airlines should have restricted access into Australia given they have the unfair competitive benefits of lower tax and cheaper overheads. Singapore Air and Emirates, however, insist they have not enjoyed government handouts to the same extent as Qantas. Both airlines have pointed out the Federal Government wrote off $700 million of Qantas's debt ahead of the airline's privatisation in the mid-1990s. Emirates is also pressing for more access into the US. After launching two flights daily into New York, Emirates wants landing slots across several US cities including Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco. --------- Emirates is going to push Qantas and BA to the wall on this route. They will have to react. The choices are pretty stark; 98 flights/week - the market is not that big. This traffic is coming from somewhere.

The Napster armies

ATW -- When 18-year-old Shawn "Napster" Fanning invented the software that turned the music industry on its head, he also engendered a vast community of young file-swappers. There are 250 million registered users of "peer-to-peer computing" networks worldwide.According to Big Champagne, a market research company that measures consumption of digital media, more music is now acquired online than on CD. The phenomenon is spreading to other forms of entertainment as well. Atlanta-based Intent MediaWorks is a distributor of legal content, music, film, video and written works among users of P2P software applications. Many of its clients are independent artists seeking to promote their works directly to the Internet, but Intent also works with businesses that want to distribute corporate information at the lowest possible cost. Its own networks reach 20 million people, mostly of college age and equally split between the genders. Intent's executives view them as "a captive audience to whom no one is delivering travel products or services," said Richard Keefhaver, vice president of e-commerce for Intent's travel division. That Intent turned its sights on travel is no surprise: Its founders are Les Ottolenghi and Glenn Martin, both graduates of AgentWare and Carlson Wagonlit Travel. Next month, Intent will roll out mytravelnetwork.com, where users can find travel information in "a social networking environment in which people are encouraged to share," Keefhaver said. As envisioned, the site would provide a comprehensive index of information on destinations around the world that is available from other users as well as from destination management companies and other suppliers. "Users will have all these resources, and they can decide who to work with," Keefhaver said. Martin, who is Intent's chief operating officer, said mytravelnetwork.com will make use of "swarming" technology. "The computer is smart enough to know that the same file is on six different computers," he said, so it will assemble a copy using pieces from each, "swarming" around the most powerful sources. A key component of the site is the matching of users with "experts" on the destination, including airlines, tour operators and on- and offline travel agents. In part, the site will function as an advertising vehicle for suppliers, who can choose from three levels of listings ranging from a complimentary Silver listing to paid Gold and Platinum listings with photos and other rich media. Those costs could be eliminated, however, based upon the number of new users that a supplier or service provider brings to the network. "Bringing new users onto the network will also result in lifetime residual income to whoever gets the new user registered first," Keefhaver said. The site also will incorporate the FareFinder meta search air and hotel engine, and Intent is currently negotiating with suppliers for booking revenue. In addition, "we expect to have numerous service provider categories on our home page with links to these suppliers, and we plan to build business relationships that would generate income for us as well," Keefhaver said. "For the most part, we would look at back-end revenue on bookings, but there could also be an option for cost-per-click from the home page links." Suppliers would also have the option to pay for e-mail messaging and/or advertising directly to a targeted demographic of the user base. For the rollout, Intent expects to have airlines, online travel agencies and hotels in FareFinder and destination and travel agent profiles with links from the home page. Additional home page listings and links for other categories will follow. --------- Regular readers will recognize this idea - travelers carrying their own IFE. We blogged on the iPOD earlier and there is more to come. A PODCAST is coming soon - you will actually be able to hear an interview with the creators of the iPOD as IFE alernative from Australia. The above story guides mobile devices users to where they can go to get their content. What you are seeing is another example of a legacy industry losing its customers. Airlines are so far behind in this thinking its scary. Remember what the Internet did to airlines and what's it cost them to wean people back to their websites? And ponder if you will what it costs airlines to install all those TVs...just the weight does horrible things to gas burn (the engines silly, not the accountants).

Emirates & Qantas - a make believe scenario

Emirates keeps buying planes. Rumors are they like the idea of an all-economy 380 between Australia and the UK. Does the idea of a $400 fare between Sydney and London get your attention? What does such a low fare do to your brand? $400 does not ruin your brand as much as destroy your competitors. With no other brand around, you can do what you like. Think Southwest with 380s. Emirates are getting 45 Airbus 380s. That's 27,000 seats....think that over and read it again. Now read it again. Now off we go into the scenario..... OK, now imagine you're the CEO of Qantas. Your 380s are going to go SYD-LAX. You have been watching SQ with trepidation because those guys want in on your route because you fly SYD-SIN-LHR. You have enough trouble because that's where 20% of your profit comes from. In Parliament, backbenchers don't want to protect you because they want more tourists coming to Australia. Air Canada just announced they are flying LAX-SYD with 773s. Then you turn around and see a couple of squadrons of 380s coming from behind you. And you think, Oh dear (or Aussie equivalent not suitable for publication). Meanwhile the famous Aussie backpackers - there are thousands of them - are lining up to fly to Europe for close to the cost of two backpacks. You think maybe its time you ordered that 777LR to fly to front end traffic to London non-stop and leave the great unwashed to Emirates. But wait, Emirates have an awesome front end product too - close to or better than SQ we hear. And Aussies are an orney lot, they won't pay more to fly Qantas. A stop in the Middle East is great when you have a bed and 20inch TV. Oh the pressure. Reaching for the Pepto Bismol, you head for the bathroom with an awful burning in your gut. End of scenario - and waiting for the flames....

Next generation narrow bodies

Possible 737 replacement
Evolved 320 Two great pieces from Flight International today. here and here.

Dummy of the Week #2

Australian airline Jetstar on Tuesday refused to back down over an incident on a flight in Queensland in which a mother-of-two was ordered by cabin crew to cover up a tattoo on her shoulder blade depicting a naked couple engaging in sex. Flight attendants on the January 26 flight obliged Peta Bull (36) to wear a jacket until she was off the domestic flight and in the Brisbane airport terminal. Jetstar spokesperson Bruce Buchanan said the airline had a duty to protect passengers from "offensive material" like Bull's tasteless tattoo. "Normally what we do is just ask that they take it out of view of other passengers," Buchanan told local radio. "It's basically a standard procedure that we have." Bull wrote to Jetstar last week complaining of the treatment. "I was embarrassed and belittled," she said. "I can't believe they singled me out. --------- We don't make this stuff up. We don't have to.

Northwest Airlines pilots authorize strike vote

Northwest Airlines Corp.'s pilots' union approved a vote to authorize a strike, a union leader said Friday, as it disagreed with the bankrupt airline on plans for a regional carrier, extent of pay cuts and other concessions sought by the company. Carrier says walkout would be illegal. ---------- How long will it be before the airline industry can get UAVs? People need reliable and safe transportation - not exposure to continued industry discontent threatening their plans.

Marketing the Yukon

We did a short interview with Donna Larsen, CEO of Datapath Systems in Marsh Lake, Yukon. Their website is http://datapathsystems.net. Datapath does a lot of tourism market research and consulting. Describe the problem of marketing the Yukon.
While the word "Yukon" invokes an image in most people's mind of rugged outdoors, as a destination, it lacks awareness of it's actual location and products available. Due to the small population base, budgets to market the Territory are also limited. Tourism operations are also small and often seasonal - either specializing in summer or winter activities - but open for just one of the two seasons. They are also limited in their capacity to handle visitors and their ability to market themselves. There is a significant reliance on the government to handle the marketing. How does one impact travel planning for a destination like this?
This differs by origin. For example, many Canadians are aware of the Territory and want to visit it as a part of their Canadian heritage - however, it tends to be a place they plan to visit "someday". The key is to motivate those travellers to come sooner rather then later. For Americans, they tend to associate the Yukon with Alaska and the key there is to get them to extend their Alaska trip by adding days in the Yukon. Overseas market make this a primary destination and the key is to continue to provide them the true wilderness experience with first class operations, but also allowing them the independence and sense of adventure they are seeking. How does a destination measure its success?
Both qualitative measures (is the industry happy), and through quantitative studies such as the conversion study based on inquirers for tourism information. Can a relatively unknown destination break through the tough fickle awareness barrier?
Only among a targeted and clear segment of the population. Within key groups, yes. But to consider trying to expand across a bigger population, that requires partnerships with compatible brands that already have a high national awareness level. How important are easy transport links?
Very important of course. For the Yukon we are blessed with the Alaska Highway - an international treasure that every American and Canadian should experience. The Highway is incredible with beauty scenery, wildlife, vistas and history. We also have two year-round airlines to serve the North American market, and a charter service from Germany in the summer. How willing are travelers to try something new if it includes some aspects of challenge to get there?
For the primary target markets the challenge is part of the experience. But they have to be able to get here in one day - too many overnights along the way and they just won't come. Any other information is there you want to share?
Trying to explain to travellers what is like to be here is next to impossible. A common word people use is Simply Wow. Even with vast amounts of marketing money, trying to put a Territory this big into a 60 second spot or a one page ad just can't do it justice. I think the key is to market with focus - pick one or two primary target markets and then spend the money you have on personalized customer service. From the time you get their attention and drive them to a website - convince them to phone the 800# (our 800# service increases length of stay and spending). Then follow-up with them - not just printed material, but customized enewsletters, surveys, custom websites, industry follow-up. etc. Make sure that they are getting all the information they can and that they become your friend long before they come here. I find that most destinations spend all their marketing money on the their ads. They use their ads to drive people to their website and 800# - so that they can be sent a Vacation Planner.. and then it ends. That, in fact, should only be the beginning. Call them back, send them more material, share their information (with their permission) with the industry. Don't spam them or pester them, but work with them to build their trip. There are only two ways to increase the effectiveness of marketing - either increase the number of inquiries and keep the same conversion rate, or keep the same number of inquiries and increase the conversion rate. The second strategy allows you to target visitors and increase spending when they do visit.

Singapore to buy Boeings?

Orient Aviation -- At press time, the smart money was on Boeing being the sole recipient of an order of up to 60 mid and long-range airliners from Singapore Airlines (SIA). The announcement of the order, which is imminent, is expected to include B777LRs, B787s and perhaps a small number of B747 Advance freighters. SIA has a 90-airplane fleet made up almost entirely of Boeing aircraft. In its last order for long-range airplanes, in 2004, it chose 42 B777ERs. SIA is also the launch customer for the A380, expected in Singapore by year-end, and has purchased 10 of the revolutionary double-deckers. Airbus’ competitor to the B787 is the A350 and the A340-500 is the rival to the B777ER. SIA has told the manufacturers it wants a large, long-range aircraft capable of flying non-stop for up to 19 hours. --------- This is still a rumor. But the evidence is mounting that Boeing might make a clean sweep among the big orders (Air Canada, Qantas, Singapore). Awful news for Airbus as its 340 series will lose more ground to the 777 and the 350, well, its not good news as the 787 will take this one as well.

What's going in at Aeroflot?

Kommersant -- Aeroflot BOD focused January 31 on the strategic program for the aircraft fleet that extends up to 2010. According to the program, the planes constructed in time of the former Soviet Union will be ultimately withdrawn from the operation and U.S. Boeing 787 Dreamliner has been chosen as the number one long-distance plane of Aeroflot. Actually, the package offer made by Boeing to Aeroflot provides for delivery of MD-11 freight carries along with Boeing 787. Aeroflot needs MD-11 to replace the DC10-40F currently available in its fleet. Although no details of the deal have been officially disclosed so far, the consignment is said to include at least 22 Boeing 787s worth $2 billion. The catalogue cost of each plane is $130 million. Under the program, Aeroflot will completely abandon the planes of Soviet times - Tu-134, Tu-154 and Il-86, having only Boeing 787, A320 and regional RRJ of Sukhoi (from late 2008) in the fleet just in a few years. In addition to RRJ, the program mentions six Il-96-300s to be delivered by Ilyushin Finance Co., which are expected to double the number of such planes in Aeroflot fleet. But the contract for Il-96-300 has been shelved again, once Aeroflot demanded additional operating guarantee for them. ------- Setting the mangled language aside, this news source has flip flopped on the 350 and 787 before.

Abortion, Demographics & Tourism

This title is trying to get your attention and it also is trying to tell you a story. The issue has been bouncing around my brain for weeks, maybe months. Then I came across an article that set me off – I had to put this together. So here goes. Please note this piece is not politically motivated. Abortion “Prenatal sex determination followed by selective abortion of female fetuses is the most plausible explanation for the low sex ratio at birth in India. Women most clearly at risk are those who already have one or two female children. Based on conservative assumptions, the practice accounts for about 0•5 million missing female births yearly, translating over the past 2 decades into the abortion of some 10 million female fetuses.” [The Lancet – registration required] You can read more on this using this link which is an Indian website. This is not a unique practice in India. China has a one baby per family policy. China too has a huge number of boy babies. The reported sex ratio at birth in China was around 106 males per 100 females in most years in the 1960s and 1970s. The ratio increased after 1980: it was 108.5 in 1981; 110.9 in 1986; 111.3 in 1989; and 111.9 in the first six months of 1990. A dated article (2001) is at this link. These are the two most populous nations in the world with over 1 billion people. These are also two of the fastest growing economies in the world. What happens in these two countries today will impact the rest of us over the next decade. Demographics Extrapolate the data from the above paragraph and you can see where this ends up. If babies born in these two nations are mostly boys, where will the girls come from to balance the economy? This change in demographics is going to have a tsunami-type impact on the demographics of these nations. The shift must surely have downstream impacts. For example there will be a very big pool of boys chasing a small pool of girls when these children grow to adulthood – socially this will be a problem. Too much testosterone is no good in any society. There are smarter people in the world who could (and should) be addressing this question. Tourism As an industry, tourism is a huge employer. As a service industry tourism creates huge numbers of jobs. The World Tourism Organization states “Tourism is the world's largest growth industry with no signs of slowing down in the 21st century. Travel and tourism is an important job creator, employing an estimated 100 million people around the world. The vast majority of tourism jobs are in small or medium-sized, family-owned enterprises. Research shows that job creation in tourism is growing 1 1/2 times faster than any other industrial sector.” Now take both the abortion issue and the change in demographics and see where you end up. Tourism employs lots of women – think about any trip you have taken. Most of the service providers you come across are female. From the check-in counter at the airport or hotel, to the cabin crew on a flight to the room cleaners at your hotel, women make it happen. Indeed, we would suggest that without women, the entire fabric of tourism would fray into useless threads. Women are simply better service providers than men. The market has shown this. While women perform other tourism-related jobs just as well as men (pilots, drivers, managers, etc.) women beat men on the customer-facing service side. Now ponder what might happen in China and India in two decades time jst as their economies hit their stride as developed countries. Where will the girls come from?

Work Smarter

The beauty and the curse of the Internet is the 'inter' bit, which most people think means 'international' and probably does. I am trying to post Monday through Friday, on top of a normal working week, on top of running my own business, on top of having a life with my dog and family. It's a challenge some days, less so on others. Fridays are crazy with a weekly commute across England, and yesterday even more so because I met with a prospective new client. My current assignment is drawing to a close, you see. It is Saturday where I am, very early, and lots to do. I've also agreed to co-write a research paper, and there is lots to do there too. The beauty of working the weekend is that it buys you 48 more hours in the week, but gradually annoys those you live with and are supposed to visit on what to most people are 'holidays'. Bear in mind that my goal in life is to bring technology to bear on such issues, streamlining lives and making everything more efficient. By the account just given, I would appear a dreadful advert for my own services, but no... I'm in the lucky position of being able to choose when and where I work, who with, and for how long. It has taken a short career to get there, and I'm not quite where I want to be yet. But so near! This article links to a new blog that I am involved with called Future Business, and we hope that it will soon turn into a slick podcast. It will cover anything and everything to do with technology in business, but certainly not technology for its own sake. The real point behind this post, after such a waffle at the beginning, is that my implied goal (certainly not one that I think about too often) is to put the airline industry out of business. Why fly when you can videoconference, for free, from a laptop, from a coffee shop in the deepest Congo? Why videoconference when you can hologram? I've thoroughly enjoyed my year-long stint in this industry, so much so that I'm going to keep 'in the loop'. Continuing to blog, research and analyse the industry, and hopefully do some part-time consulting work for my current client. It's been a lot of fun, and it's opened my eyes to an industry at a new dawn. Thanks for the fish, but could you cook them next time?

Podcasts come to your cell phone

In light of what we have been talking about regarding mobile IFE along comes this announcement. This will allow you to get what you want, when you want. Take the content that interests you and consume same on your own time. Its like TIVO on your phone. --------- Listen instantly or download for later... Stream content to your phone and enjoy it immediately. No long waits for downloads or synchronizing with your PC! Or if you want to download it, you can. Getting on an plane? Download the episode to your phone and listen while you are in the air.

Spirit Aero "buys" into Airbus

Wichita, KS-based Spirit AeroSystems this week announced that it signed an agreement to acquire the Aerostructures business unit of BAE Systems, which has operations in Prestwick, Scotland and in Samlesbury, England. Spirit is paying £80m ($142m) and assuming certain liabilities of the business. The Aerostructures unit, which will be known as Spirit AeroSystems (Europe) Limited, produces structural components, chiefly on wings, similar to that in Spirit's business unit in Tulsa, Oklahoma, but on different programs. More than 80% of BAE Systems Aerostructures' revenue is earned on Airbus aircraft, including the A320 Family, the A330 and the A340. The remainder is from the Boeing 767 and 777, and from the Raytheon Hawker 800XP. BAE Systems Aerostructures employs over 800 people in the UK, and had revenues of approximately $367m in 2005. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2006 after receipt of required regulatory approvals. ----------- One company now building both Airbus and Boeing. Imagine the IP they will be gathering. Pundits should watch this one closely as any movement in resources will telegraph what is happening beyond the public eye at either manufacturer. Spirit might become a neat proxy for those secret events we only find about later.

Yu Hu Stewardess

This is a great blog written by a flight attendant. Irreverant and fun. Bet you didn't know these people had a funny streak did you? Its worth a visit.

Why is this man smiling?

His exit plans from Chapter 11 expect $50/bbl oil and the price is closer to $70/bbl. But boy does this guy have a great stock option situation. "I think they have substantial challenges -- energy costs, pricing power," said airline consultant Robert Mann. "And I think there are some questions as to whether they can be the instigator or the target of consolidation." Bob should know, he's a maven on this industry. But read on Associated Press: How do you explain your thinking on the management stock plan, which some unions and outside critics maintain is excessive for a company that has asked its employees for many concessions in bankruptcy? TILTON: It is in everyone's best interest for management to have a higher portion of their compensation at risk, and tied to the performance of the company's stock. In this case, the value of the plan is purely theoretical and depends on the performance of the stock over the next four years. Importantly, all of our employees will share in stock in the new company. Associated Press: How long do you expect to be in this job? TILTON: I've got about 18 months left on the contract and I'm going to fulfill that. Everything I've said this company's going to be capable of doing, I'll be here to put this company on that course. I don't consider the restructuring to have been my work. It's what comes next that will be my work. So if you had a chance to exit with a bunch of cash from this industry, particularly United, in 18 months you'd be a smiling-Jack too. Its fantasy to think United's employees are OK with the new management stock plan. The pilots particularly are a bloshie group. Remember they were big losers in Chapter 11 - they had a huge ownership stake. United had the world's largest ESOP (employee ownership plan) in the world. All that has turned to dust. Oh yeah, this guy has a lot to smile about.

PIA's 777LR nearly ready for delivery

A marvelous picture of an amazing airplane.

Here We Go, Here We Go...

... is a familiar chant to the north of the English channel, and west of the Netherlands. It's kind of a football (soccer) anthem, and it can also be used when one is subject to repetition of an unpleasant experience. In this case it is the French, on strike, again. Groan. Sigh. Pant. If there is one solid argument in support of globalisation, it is the result that France will either be dragged into the 21st century or it will slide into irreversible decine, and none of her inhabitants will be able to leave home. I am reminded of Britain in the 70's, and that was an unpleasant decade. It was a watershed in British modern history, and as a result it is almost illegal (and certainly very difficult) for anyone at all to go out on strike.

Germany Online

Great story here on the rise of the online Germany. Broadband in nearly 1/3 of homes by 2007. With 20% of households having broadband now generating $27bn in online sales, guess where that will be in 2007. For $695 you can buy their report. Germans are known for long holidays, far from home. A restless bunch the Germans, and more broadband is going to play a big role here. If you are running a niche beach resort in the Seychelles (Germans love beaches), pay attention. Get yourself in front of these people using the Internet now. Make it very graphic with lots of web cams. Have everyone wave at the cameras. Allow online bookings and watch the money roll in.

New CTC Web strategy: What works for the customer, works for the industry

It's all happening in Canada these days... a new national brand, a rethink of how the country does business in global tourism markets and now a new web strategy. Michele McKenzie, president and CEO of the Canadian Tourism Commission (CTC) shares her experiences in developing this new strategy and explains how it will revolutionise CTC's online marketing presence. --------- The fundamental change to their strategy is that marketing execution will be shifting from about 15% web-based activities to almost 50%. This is big news and shows the way other DMOs might need to move. Often these organizations are small and budget constrained. This is especially the case in the US. Tourism is the pinnacle of global competition. Your brand, identity and image can be negatively impacted in a day. Ask any destination in the hurricane zone of the Caribbean. The web is a great way to overcome this using live web cams. Technology, as the Canadians are showing, is another way to get the leverage you need when facing resource constraints.

Over automation a problem says BALPA

The British Airline Pilots Association (BALPA) recently and officially voiced concern that "Airline pilots increasingly lack 'basic flying skills' and may be unable to cope with an inflight emergency such as sudden mechanical failure." The union warns that pilots are becoming too reliant on automated systems and are not being encouraged or trained to fly manually. ----------- A great piece to make you think. Yet lets not forget that awesome flying on jetBlue out of LAX when the highly automated Airbus 320 landing gear got stuck. If ever there was a televised example of excellent fly, that was it. Perhaps we also need to point out that automation has helped make flying a lot safer. With cockpits as automated as they are, crews can think about what they're doing in an emergency because systems are taking care of themselves. IAG has a survey on this issue here Check the results here

Enplaned Blog & TSA

On an excellent aviation blog (Enplaned) there is a story that supports the US increasing what is essentially TSA fees to travelers. We also wrote about this yesterday. Idelwild, who publishes on that blog, makes the case that the government is subsidizing these fees now and that is an indirect tax on non-travelers. Fair enough. But as you will see from the comments below the story, readers have responded with strong counter arguments. We recommend this story to readers here because it provides the insight needed to evaluate the entire TSA situation. We believe that US airport security is too expensive and is not using technology enough. We totally advocate pre-screening by reviewing PNRs. This eliminates treating everyone is an equal threat, which they are not. Grannies and babies are not threats and should not be on the TSA "no-fly" lists but they are. Getting passengers to pay more of the burden is fine because it is a direct tax, but we are not getting fair value. Because government knows this, they have to pick up the slack. There are many examples of government subsidies that are used because markets are efficient only if they are allowed to be. Air travel is full of inefficiencies because of too much government involvement in just about everything. Many examples exist and public transport is a fine example to point to here. No public transport system can survive without some sort of government subsidy. Therefore, government will continue to pay for some TSA costs from its general revenues. See here for what people like you are thinking: Pre-Flight security survey Pre-Flight security survey results Provide your recent airport experiences here: TSA survey

WTO, Airbus & Boeing

Reuters -- Washington has filed a new tit-for-tat complaint in a row with Brussels over subsidies for civilian plane makers Boeing and Airbus, a World Trade Organization (WTO) official said on Thursday. The US move followed a similar step by Brussels last month. The actions present more details and make further requests for information about the other's subsidy programs. Diplomats said it was not clear whether the latest moves would delay progress in the case, potentially the biggest commercial battle in WTO history. First public hearings are due to be held in June, with a final ruling unlikely before mid-2007, diplomats say. The new EU request for a panel to probe its latest complaint goes before the WTO's dispute settlement body later on Thursday. Normal practice sees such demands blocked the first time. In a statement released in Geneva, the office of the US Trade Representative said it still believed a negotiated settlement was possible. Both sides have said they are prepared to talk as the case proceeds in the WTO. "But one way or another, the (Airbus) subsidies will need to end," US Trade Representative Rob Portman said in the statement. Washington's request for further consultations, which will in turn lead to another panel being sought, contained examples of how Airbus had continued to receive subsidies after the WTO probe was launched. It listed a GBP£5.2 million (USD$9.2 million) grant from the Welsh Assembly to underwrite training costs for Airbus' new A350 mid-sized plane, which the European consortium is developing to rival Boeing's 787. ---------- Imagine this, the US has gone down to discovering something under $10m in their case. This indicates the level to which they are digging. No doubt Airbus is scouring for data down to same levels. This is really messy. Both companies had blockbuster years in 2005. Don't they have work to do? This case, if its sunk to this level, is merely employing lawyers and bureaucrats. The world has too many of these already. How about employing more people in the aviation sector to create something useful? Recent experience shows the sector could use more people, particularly in customer service.

Privatizing India's airports not going too well

(AFX) - Thousands of workers picketed airports across India today in a strike called to protest government plans to privatize the country's two largest airports at New Delhi and Bombay, officials said. However, flight schedules in and out of the 130 airports -- manned by workers of the Airports Authority of India (AAI) -- were unaffected as air traffic controllers came in for work, officials and reports said. In New Delhi and the financial capital of Bombay, workers shouted anti-government slogans as they launched a sit-in protest outside the entrances to the main terminals. 'Unless and until the government heeds our demand to withdraw its decision to privatize Mumbai (Bombay) and Delhi airports, we will not stop our agitation,' Pramod Sharma, a union secretary, was quoted as saying by the Press Trust of India news agency. 'We are ready to go to the extent of even sacrificing our lives.' The protests gathered momentum after the government announced yesterday that construction firm GMR Industries, based in Hyderabad and partnered by Germany's Fraport have won a bid to privatize Delhi airport. India's GVK group and the South African airport authority won the bid to privatize Mumbai airport. The federal cabinet approved the deals today. Plans to privatize the two airports had stalled for years amid opposition by workers fearing job losses. But both consortia have promised to absorb 60 pct of the workforce after three years, with AAI to absorb the rest. Both airports are notorious for their lack of passenger amenities, congested conditions and scant duty-free shopping or entertainment for transit passengers. 'We are only opposing handing over the process to private players. The Airport Authority of India is fully capable to do that,' said Sharma. Union officials in Bombay said about 3,000 staff had walked out from domestic and international airports at 10.30 am but they did not include air traffic controllers or pilots. 'Everything at the airport is normal. The only difference is that instead of using aero bridges they are using stepladders' to board passengers, said Air India spokesman Jitender Bhargava. Passengers complained of delays in getting baggage as airlines brought in staff to handle the job normally done by the unionized workers. 'We have got our own staff helping with luggage,' said Jet Airways spokeswoman Nandini Verma. 'We have no option than to do this, but not for an extended period.' Police used batons to chase some of the striking workers away from the passenger entrances of Bombay airport, but the AAI said the situation had calmed after the early clashes. 'There was just a small inconvenience as passengers entered and exited the airport,' said AAI Bombay regional head SR Rao. 'The situation is under control.' However union official Nithin Jadhav said 25 people were injured in the clash. Reports said air services in and out of most cities remained unaffected. In Delhi, AAI spokesman Prem Nath said contingency measures are in place to ensure 'all services, both air and ground, remain normal and all the facilities for passengers are unaffected.' But passengers complained that services were disrupted. 'Maintenance of facilities is also poor. Toilets are not clean and we are not getting any trolleys to take our luggage to the car,' PTI quoted passenger Vinod Madhavan as saying. About 19 mln domestic passengers passed through India's airports in the year to March 2005. Analysts predict annual growth of 20 pct over the next five years as rising incomes and lower fares make air travel more affordable. -------- Boarding by step ladders and striking willing to sacrifice their lives? "The situation is normal" says the man. This is in a market that has 19m pasenegers? You have seen how planes Indian airlines ordered last year. If labor action is starting now, forget that 20% annual growth. India has to build out its airports big time. There are going to be jobs at airports either builing them or running them for thousands of people. There 130 airports and all of them need to be built out. But, hey its all OK, the situation is normal.

U.S. to double airline fees

Following the age old dictum, if it succeeds do it again: Bloomberg -- Bush's administration proposes to double airline-security fees for most travelers starting in October, a Homeland Security official said. The fee would increase to $5 a flight for non-stop travelers from $2.50, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The change would cost airlines about $746 million a year for domestic flights. --------- As a taxpayer, always (yes always) consider the value for money. What, eaxctly, are we paying for here? Bloomberg advises "The increase will help pay for airport security, allowing Bush to free general tax revenue for other priorities and to help meet a pledge to cut the budget deficit in half by 2009." The current political rejection running rampant in Pennsylvania needs to catch fire and spread. Are politicians so out of touch? Travel is beginning to come back, so its not a great thing to hammer it now. All the same, we wonder about all these taxes. We are not convinced of the value proposition at all.

Apple Computer

Time to declare an interest: I'm a bit into Apple Computer. I blog elsewhere on this, so no need to repeat myself. But I just had a thought. Stay with me. iPod is big, but not that big. Later this year there are rumours of an Apple phone, or a Wi-Fi iPod, or both, in one device. I don't think we'll get both just yet, but either way it will be a big leap for a mere music player. Just think about the opportunity. Airports already have Wi-Fi access. If they don't already, planes will soon, as long as airlines can get over their anxiety about safety and so on. Your top passengers all have iPods. Apple have announced numerous links with car manufacturers to provide at least a jack, if not a full iPod dock connector, as standard in their new cars. What if... Boeing (say) offered an iPod dock in every business and first class seat. What if? Big If.

AirTran slips under the radar

ORLANDO, Fla., Jan. 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- AirTran Airways, a subsidiary of AirTran Holdings, Inc. , today announced the airline will expand its route network from Indianapolis International Airport with new daily nonstop flights to Los Angeles International Airport and San Francisco International Airport. As part of the new service to California, AirTran Airways will begin one daily nonstop flight between Indianapolis and Los Angeles on May 9, 2006, and will add an additional flight on June 20, 2006. The airline will begin one daily nonstop flight between Indianapolis and San Francisco on June 7, 2006. These flights will be served by the airline's popular all-new Boeing 737 aircraft. -------------- This slipped by most people yesterday as everyone is caught up with United. This goes to show that LCCs will continue to pick away at potential cherries in route networks. AirTran tried ATL to LA before and was thrashed by Delta. This time they are coming at it more quietly.

Connexion's new pricing plans

Attractive e-mail form Connexion shows new pricing to be - Internet Time Get 1, 2, or 3 continuous hours of access. Internet Time begins when you sign in, and continues for the allotted time, no matter how many times you sign in and out. $9.95 for 1 hour of access $14.95 for 2 hours of access $17.95 for 3 hours of access Internet Flight Get flat-rate access for your entire flight. This includes connecting flights within 24 hours of signing in. $26.95 for flat-rate access Price shown in US dollars. No taxes or duties will be added. Prices are reduced during maintenance periods. --------- The pricing used to be simpler. Nobody needs 24 hours of flight access, so this might be over priced. On the other hand, if you need access, you'll pay. We think they are still missing something. Give the customer the first 30 minutes free. Smart marketing people know where we're going with this.

More thoughts on the 737-700ER

Current long-haul routes flown by A319/737: * KLM: AMS-Houston with 44-seat Privatair 737BBJ. This offers an additional frequency to the daily 747 flight on a business market. * Swiss: ZRH-Newark with 56-seat Privatair 737-800. This replaced an A330-200 service. JFK still served with A330/340. * Lufthansa: DUS-Newark & Chicago with 48-seat Privatair A319CJ. EWR replaced A340 service, presumably economy pax transfer via FRA. * MUC-Newark by 44-seat Privatair 737BBJ. Replaced A340 service. JFK served additionally by A330. * Air France: CDG-Pointe Noir/Malabo/Kuwait/Riyadh by 82-seat (28 bus, 54 econ) A319LR. Oil industry related destinations. AF also have long distance A319 service to Tashkent and Ndjamena, but it is not clear from the timetable whether these are by the A319LR fleet or by standard 2-class A319s. (source Rolls Royce) We continue to wonder exactly what ANA has in mind. Could they be thinking along these lines for trans-Pacific service? Which existing service would they want to replace? We can't think of any. Comments welcomed.

Joe Brancatelli skewers United

A couple of stories down you will see how we see the emergence of United from Chapter 11. The story by Brancatelli is more detailed and scathing. Much more scathing. You'll be amused to know that within 3 minutes of yesterday's posting UAL Loyalty Services were on this blog. We expect the same today.

This Industry of Ours

Top of the afternoon to you from Europe. It is cold but bright here today, and I'm in a reflective mood. So much is going on at the moment, not only for me, but in this industry of ours. You can't stop for a second. I should technically say this industry of 'yours' because it is not mine in the same way. I'm an agent for hire, and I'm not supposed to care. But I do, I do. Planes, autos and computers are just damn good fun, no matter how you look at it. So glamorous, so exotic, so full of potential. I can see how I can make your industry better because I'm an outsider. I know you'll rail against the cost, the system, the rules. You'll say you wouldn't start from where you are either, but that's life. I know it is. I'm a pragmatist as well as a perfectionist (geddit) but at the same time... per-lease! EasyJet and others have shown us how to crack open a market using technology and passion, and (to be honest) not a lot else. If just one of the incumbent major airlines went on a creativity course, I'm sure the solutions would be better than what we have now, and I'm sure they could be made affordable. Take RFID. Not that new, not that expensive, so where is it? The cheapo airlines convert their customers into cattle, but you're better than that, and you can afford to splash out. Your ticket prices are higher for a start. Focus on what makes customers happy, and forget the rest. Who really needs business lounges? Hands up! Nobody. You bring your own laptop, you just need a wifi point. Cut the lounge, its staff and the space in the airport. If you want luxury, check into a hotel on the airport site. It's just one example, I admit. Who needs air miles and points? Nobody ever redeems them and in the EU they are a taxable benefit, so you should remember that next time you file a return. What's my point? Just thinking out loud. My job is changing your job, for the better, to better serve your customers. You don't really need me, do you?

Tilton & Co - a model for more labor woes at United

A court-approved plan to reward top United Airlines executives with $115 million in stock could be worth double or triple that sum, based on advance trading of new shares to be issued this week. The company had proposed executives get a 15% stake in the reorganized company, but the creditors' committee balked. The company later agreed to an 8% executive stake, which the judge approved over labor union objections. In court, United consultants estimated stock in a reorganized United would fetch $15 a share. CEO Glenn Tilton's portion, the largest, was valued then at $15 million. On Friday, creditors who will receive airline stock as part of the settlement of United's recently completed Chapter 11 bankruptcy were selling at $43 a share on a "when issued" basis. Duane Woerth, national president of the Air Line Pilots Association, calls the plan "over-the-top" and "an insult to employees who gave up a lot" in pay and benefits during Chapter 11. "Executive compensation in America has been crazy for a while," he said, "but I don't think anyone was expecting this from a company coming out of Chapter 11." The outcome of this is that we expect more labor unrest. United's culture may have been shaken by Chapter 11 but not changed.

Inmarsat-based email service

A new Inmarsat-based inflight email service is among the factors contributing to the success of Iberia’s new business-class offering, according to the airline. The email service, based on Inmarsat’s Swift64 64kbit/sec link, was introduced in a critical mass of the fleet at the beginning of this year. It was developed and is being supported by Airbus/SITA venture OnAir, with ARINC acting as satellite communications service provider. Giving two-way access to corporate networks and public Webmail services such as AOL, Hotmail and Yahoo, the service is available via passengers’ own laptops supported by an in-seat RJ-45 LAN connector and a 110V AC power supply. Users may view the headers of incoming emails before electing to view them by committing to a price plan: $4.95 for four hours or $9.95 for the duration of a longer flight. Under the whole-flight plan it’s possible to connect and disconnect at any time without incurring further charges. Users can send and receive an unlimited number of emails of any length, with attachments charged at a rate of 10 cents per kilobyte. The IM service is offered at no extra cost to email users. While the email service displays some latency – receipt and delivery delays amounting to a number of tens of seconds accumulated though the various stages of delivery – the IM facility is virtually real-time. It is also available simultaneously with email sessions, and passengers may have several conversation windows open at the same time. What is noteworthy here is the price difference between this service and Connexion. Clearly Inmarsat does not have Connexion's bandwidth.

AA and the MD80

Many years ago, in the heyday of McDonnell Douglas, orders from American used to go something like this: "We think the MD80 is terrible. Can you cut the price? Ok, then we'll take another 30." Now AA has 300 of them. They average 12 to 14 years old. Designed and built when fuel was much cheaper, they are no longer that cheap to fly. Block hour costs for the plane used to be around $1200/hr. This made them much cheaper to run than other planes, and even though they flew a bit slower than any other in AA's fleet, they were cheap. Nowadays fuel is expensive. Older planes grow heavier (kind of like us humans) and cost more in maintenance. But, there is no apparent replacement in the market for the MD80. Word is with winglets a 737 burns less fuel than an MD80, but not much. Adding winglets to a 737 drives fuel burn down 5% but only half that when compared to an MD80. So why replace the MD80 with more 737s if the saving is marginal? Turns out the MD80 was really a very well designed airplane.

Bombardier ditches CSeries; RRJ participation preferred

FI -- Bombardier is on the verge of shelving its proposed CSeries airliner project and has opened talks with Sukhoi over joining the Russian Regional Jet (RRJ) programme, say industry sources close to the Canadian project. As part of this dramatic development, Bombardier is also understood to be negotiating an agreement with Finmeccanica’s Alenia Aeronautica division. Finmeccanica is expected to decide in February whether to take a 25% stake in the RRJ programme for around $250 million. In the meantime, Bombardier is also briefing airlines on an interim solution, a four-seat stretch of the CRJ900, dubbed the -900X, which could be available from 2008 powered by uprated General Electric CF34-8 turbofans. The RRJ move, if confirmed, comes at the end of a frustrating period for Bombardier which as recently as December said it was still in “advanced negotiations” with potential CSeries launch customers worldwide. The planned launch of the CSeries was put off several times last year, and Bombardier says: “Right now we are in a number of discussions with our partners, and until these are concluded we will not be in a position to decide whether to launch the programme.” Sources say mounting concerns over the estimated costs of the venture, added to the uncertain market demand for the 110- to 130-seat aircraft, appear to have killed off the CSeries and prompted Bombardier to consider a collaboration with Sukhoi on the RRJ, which, ironically, closely resembles the former’s long-abandoned BRJ-X airliner project. The RRJ, meanwhile, appears to be alive and well. Aeroflot Russian Airlines signed a deal in December with Sukhoi for 30 RRJ-95s for delivery from November 2008. The carrier plans to acquire about half the 86-seaters on finance lease and half on operating lease, but funding has yet to be finalised. The proposed amalgamation of Bombardier with the RRJ, while expected to add credibility to the Russian-led project, is also certain to open up a mass of new questions over the already well-advanced final configuration of the aircraft, the final engine type and the possibility of long-term strategic links with Boeing, which aided in the initial design. The RRJ is baselined with the NPO Saturn/Snecma SaM146 engine, while Pratt & Whitney Canada had been preparing to develop a new engine for the CSeries based on its PW800 demonstrator. The Bombardier move therefore raises questions about a possible new engine competition. The CSeries airliner project was well capitalised and had secured multi-million dollar development loans from the Canadian and UK governments with the signing of letters of intent with Bombardier on 13 May, including a C$400 million ($320 million) research and development loan from Canada and a C$100 million commitment from the UK. A further C$350 million was being contributed by the Quebec government as part of an estimated $700 million government commitment that Bombardier says was essential for the CSeries programme to proceed. --------- This is really interesting. We noted the number of hits this blog recieved from Bombardier when we wrote about the RRJ late last year. It is now clear why Bombardier came to visit. Northwest was the first airline that spoke up for the planned CSeries. There was derision when the RRJ was announced among some Western pundits, lets see wat they say now. In November 2005 Concord Aviation, a leasing company from Dubai, signed a contract for 40 (95-seat) RRJ-95s. Sukhoi sold 30 RRJ planes to Aeroflot. Sukhoi earlier concluded a tentative agreement on RRJ deliveries with Sibir Air. Using the RRJ, Bombardier is likely able to get a product to market much faster and likely much cheaper. This is a big win for Sukhoi. It is also a boost for Russian aerospace that has been trying to break into Western markets.

737-700ER - 5,510 nautical mile range

Boeing and ANA announced they are launching the 737-700ER. Boeing PR -- "A Boeing Business Jet-inspired airplane, the commercial passenger jet features the fuselage of the 737-700 and the wings and landing gear of the larger 737-800. The high-performance derivative can fly up to 2,145 nautical miles farther than the current 737-700. With up to nine optional auxiliary fuel tanks and optional Blended Winglets, the 737-700ER is capable of flying up to 5,510 nautical miles." This is a very interesting development. It is virtually a pre-787 tool to use for trying out new markets at low risk. Notice the PR piece does not disclose the seating capacity. This particular number would provide us with an insight as to the planes intended use. Could ANA be developing a service in Asia like that of Privat Air? Why would they need this much range? Apparently a quiet piece of news at first glance, this demonstrates Boeing can and will go after niche markets. It may actually become rather bigger news as the thinking becomes clearer.

Indian Airports - more mess to come?

Times of India -- Air travellers, brace for flight delays and missed schedules in days to come. With the government deciding to cruise ahead with plans to hand over the Delhi and Mumbai airports modernisation exercise to private firms, airport employees across India have threatened flash strikes that could disrupt flight schedules. Flight operations at 124 airports across India would be hit by the stir, Airports Authority of India Employees’ Joint Forum members said. Though the employees have not announced a date for the strike, a union member said: "If the government opens the financial bids for Delhi and Mumbai airports on Tuesday, expect trouble from that moment on." --------- Oh no! Research by T2Impact (www.t2impact.com) shows that because of its rapid development, led in no small part by LCC growth, India may out accelerate China in the next decade in terms of travel. Bolshie unions are no help. Pity the Indians that have to go back to those trains. You might not be aware, but Indian LCC tickets now cost close to that of a first class rail ticket. Given Indian Railways' safety record, that airline seat looks like a bargain.

NASA Challenger 20 Years On

On Saturday it was the 20th anniversary of the fateful Challenger space shuttle disaster. I was a spring chicken at the time but even so the memories of that day, played out thousands of miles from my small home town in England, stick with me. I became fascinated in the detail of that accident and over the years I've kept an eye out on the shuttle saga, even more so since the Columbia disaster. It seems that many television channels are taking the opportunity of the 20th anniversary to update the story, and anyone interested in aviation safety should take heed. It is an object lesson in how a long chain of events can spiral out of control, even when the minds and engineers are (at least in theory) the best in the business.

What chance civil aviation if the best-funded space agency in the world cannot launch astronauts safely, nearly 40 years since man landed on the moon? Only recently, a NASA astronaut condemned the shuttle as a 'death trap', and that is after the thorough safety review that grounded the fleet after Columbia broke up on re-entry in 2003. And how eerie Cape Canaveral must be tonight. Three years ago this week, Columbia was mid-mission, planning for the homecoming was in full swing, and in two days will pass the anniversary of that tragedy as well. It would be unfair to jinx the new era of the super jumbo by making comparisons with the space shuttle. Nevertheless the mathematics suggest that the more complex a system, the closer we push to the next frontier, the more likely a serious accident becomes. There are planes that have been in service for 30 years, with known serious design flaws, which have been concealed in the interests of making money. Just like Big Tobacco, Big Aviation has much to gain from keeping its customers in the dark. Let us all hope that the coming upheavals in the airline industry do not result in more avoidable tragedies.

New US-Africa service announced

Nigeria’s aviation ministry has announced that North American Airlines will commence a 3 flights weekly between New York and Lagos effective May 2006, and will form a partnership with local airline, Bellview Airlines. The exact start date nor schedule have not been announced as of yet. North American Airlines is a wholly owned subsidiary of World Air Holdings, Inc. The airline previously announced service to the West African nation of Ghana beginning July 1, 2005, with the introduction of weekly non-stop Boeing 767-300ER scheduled service from John F. Kennedy International Airport to Accra, the capital of Ghana. Air service to Ghana from the United States was available only via Europe. According to World Air Holdings, Inc.'s Director, Corporate Communications in answer to three pertinent questions form us - "We hope to provide service to Nigeria if we receive proper government approvals. This will have no impact on Ghana service. We don't have plans to serve South Africa." It is amazing that no other US carrier is looking more at African traffic. The growth is there, prices are relatively high and competition is sparse.

.22 Caliber Cell Phone

If you get asked to test your cell phone at the airport, this could be the reason. Cell phone guns have been discovered. These phones are not in the U.S. yet (as far as we know) but they are in use overseas. Beneath the digital phone face is a .22 caliber handgun capable of firing four rounds in rapid succession using the standard telephone keypad. European law enforcement officials are stunned by the discovery of these deadly decoys. They say phone guns are changing the rules of engagement in Europe. "We find it very alarming," says Wolfgang Dicke of the German Police Union. "It means police will have to draw their weapons whenever a person being checked reaches for their cell phone." Although cell phone guns have not reached the U.S. yet, the FBI, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms and the U.S. Customs Service say they have been briefed on the new weapons. All U.S. ports of entry have been alerted. These covert weapons were first discovered in October of 2000 when Dutch police came upon a cache during a drug raid in Amsterdam. In another recent incident, a Croatian gun dealer was caught attempting to smuggle a shipment through Slovenia into Western Europe. Police say both shipments are believed to have originated in Yugoslavia. Interpol sent a warning to law enforcement agencies around the world. "If you didn't know they were guns, you would think they were cell phones,"said Ari Zandbergen, a spokesperson for the Amsterdam police. "Only when you have one in your hand do you realize that they are heavier than a regular cell phone." Be patient if security asks to look at your cell phone or turn it on to show that it works. They have a good reason!

More on less ACARS

In last week's posts we wrote about less ACARS because of better use of cell technology in cockpit comms. Then we came across this - FI reports that MyTravel Airways is to be launch customer for a new product that extends the paperless-cockpit concept into post-flight technical logs. CoreWing is an electronic technical log devised by Rolls-Royce’s engine health monitoring business Data Systems & Solutions (DS&S) that accepts crew-entered data via a tablet computer and transmits it to airline and third-party maintenance organisations. Director of flight operations Steve Solomon also likes the cheap cellphone transmission process, which does not require ACARS or a VHF datalink. -------- Legacy technology continues to die in this industry, unforunately often at too slow a rate.

2006 - Delays coming back?

First about the picture - its on BBC.com. Although the planes appear extremely close in the photograph, the Civil Aviation Authority said no near miss had been reported. [Photo: Barry Bland] So they say, for airplanes buffs the level of detail clearly indicates these planes were within less than a mile from each other. Note also the wing configurations, they appear in cruise mode. BBC says the JAL plane (on top) is an Airbus 330 - its actually a 777-300ER. The DHL is an A300. A striking picture though. This picture is a metaphor for what might happen this summer. Travel is back on reduced capacity. Prices can be expected to rise but worse, delays are probably coming back.