Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Michael O'Leary's bomb

Michael O'Leary must have scared every North Atlantic airline CEO today with his news of buying up to 50 widebody planes for service from Europe to the US. With fares starting at $12, nobody can compete.

We suspect that although this service will take a long time to launch Ryanair cannot get planes that fast - competitors will start to react tomorrow. They dare not ignore Ryanair. We have been discussing the idea of either Ryanair or even JetBlue considering North Atlantic service. JetBlue did a deal with Aer Lingus and so accomplished its goal with no fleet growth and no capex. But Ryanair has announced its intention to do this alone.

Bear in mind the EC wants the open skies deal broadened to allow for the equivalent of cabotage or ownership of US airlines. Now Ryanair will join that chorus. Because if Ryanair can get its service into the US domestic market, all bets are off on many of today's US airlines. O'Leary has proven to be a devastating competitor and the US consumer, with its love of competition, will embrace his airline.

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