Friday, May 30, 2008

Today's news

Oil price news -- Yesterday it suddenly started to fall - a lot. The price of crude closed down $4.41 yesterday ending at 126.62. It seems to be trading at this level now. There has been a sharp reduction in demand its true. US fuel demand declined 0.7% to 20.5 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended May 23rd from a year ago, the Energy Department said yesterday. Given the lower demand now, we think summer travel is likely to see lower consumption too.

A dealership near our office is offering Suburbans with $10,000 off notices on the windshields. That's close to 25% off sticker price. Its costs ~$150 to fill the tank. The oil shock is rippling through the economy fast. Consumer sentiment is off big time and in America that is really bad news. The drop in oil price is therefore is much needed bit of news - though there will be a delay between this news and the pump prices. Funny how going up the move is instant, going down there is this odd delay.

Perhaps a confluence of events may be playing a role. First the White House decided to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then came word that federal regulators have been investigating price manipulation in oil markets since December. You just know that in an election year, politicians would like nothing better than to hang some traders out to dry.

In other news --

  • Strange news from Sudan
  • Tilton & Parker - dating is off, news is mixed
  • Mesa wins round one but is certain to lose fight
  • Silverjet shuts down - another one bites the dust

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  • Thursday, May 29, 2008

    Today's news

    The travel recession has started -- We have noted that despite much higher air fares, flights seem to still have high load factors. Now IATA has announced some interesting data. The number of international airline passengers traveling first class and business class in March declined the most since 2003. IATA said the decline reflected a sharp slowdown in financial sector activity and a weakening US economy. The loss of these high-paying fares is a blow to airlines already battling high fuel prices.

    "Airline executives get concerned when they start to see falling traffic in the front of the plane because it's the premium passengers that represent valuable revenue," said Steve Lott, spokesman for IATA. "Whether they are flying less or flying in coach (economy), those are both worrying signs for airline managers," Lott added.

    IATA said in a report that global first class and business class traffic in March fell 3.9% from the same month last year. Within North America, such "premium" traffic for IATA airlines was down 8.5% in March from a year earlier and down 5.2% for the year to March from the same period last year. Within Europe, first and business class traffic for IATA airlines was down 17.1% in March and down 10.7% for the year to March. But air travel markets in the Middle East, Far East and Africa showed much stronger premium traffic.

    This story obviously plays off well against what we wrote about yesterday in terms of the air travel demand curve. What we are seeing here no doubt confirms that people at the higher (more inelastic) end of the J curve are either buying down or are slowing their travel altogether. For example, the disappearance of Bear Sterns must have affected travel demand out of New York. The take over of what was left of the firm led to 8,000 job cuts world wide. The hit taken by the banking industry is also part of why we no longer have eos and MaxJet.

    Without the demand for those premium seats airlines must be scrambling. As a start we expect to see less of these seats for sale. We might see premium coach cabins growing to segment to traffic; trying to hold on to revenue any way they can.

    In other news --

  • They lose planes in India
  • The price of oil should be....
  • Oh to be a fly on the wall - Tilton & Parker to meet today
  • Cuts at Cathay
  • The clash of cultures starts - Delta, Northwest & AFA
  • America's strange politic - ATA likes the Farm Bill

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  • Wednesday, May 28, 2008

    Today's news

    The new debate -- Not to become too morbid - we can take some more time to become depressed after all. ATW has a good story today that should get your brain pondering. The LCC argument goes along these lines - as times get tougher people will buy down to an LCC but keep traveling. The counter argument states that LCC customers are price sensitive to start with and will simply go away as air fares climb beyond their means.

    We think both are correct; but here's the rub. How big is the market at each end and how steep is the demand curve? In our estimate the curve is shaped like a lazy J, except its facing the other way as if you were looking in a mirror (see picture). You can learn more about this here. At the bottom you have price sensitive consumers who will drop off and quit flying. As you go up the J though, some people will buy down. As you go further up the J, the market drops off quickly in terms of size. For another look at air travel demand curves, we recommend this link.

    We estimate that the counter-LCC argument is the stronger. The airline business grew mighty as more people realized how easy and cheap it is to travel. Without cheap air fares, we would not see millions of people migrate from poor Asian nations to the Gulf for work. We would not see tens of thousands of you young Europeans going on weekend jaunts. We would not see people leaving Amtrak and Greyhound buses for Southwest Airlines in the US. The reality is, in our estimation, LCCs created a whole new type of traveler. People who could not afford flying have now learned this habit. The following picture illustrates what the traditional demand curve looks like.

    It was not the legacy airlines that created this huge travel market, it was the LCCs. They effectively changed the shape of the industry. The great weakness in this was the fact that nobody predicted oil going to current levels. Now that oil prices are so high, travel demand will surely drop off - and even if there is a ratcheting down from higher up the J to dropping off the J altogether, the travel market will shrink. We see this confirmed by the number of airlines that are cutting service and schedules.

    What is happening is that the J is shrinking back to what it once was. Supply and demand will adjust so that the market clear, as the economists teach us. What was once a lazy J will now become less lazy (leaning) to reflect the relative inelasticity of travel for a smaller market.

    If only the wealthy can afford to fly, that means fewer planes are needed. The commercial aviation business will no doubt enter a destructive phase. Legacy airlines cannot shrink into an LCC because their business models are too complex. Some LCCs simply will not be able to sustain their business. Depending on where an airline is located on the J, they either fall off or move down. A decade from now we may see a very different airline industry. But the path to that point is going to be tough and very painful.

    In other news --

  • Forgeard is back in the news
  • MOL likes high oil prices - beware what you ask for
  • EU backs Airbus' A350 - and the price rises
  • United/US Airways merger starts to fade - what next Mr. Tilton?
  • That weird missile over Houston

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  • Tuesday, May 27, 2008

    Today's news

    If you are a speculator that likes to gamble without ever getting near Las Vegas, we have a deal for you. Read this first though. If you can handle the risk, you will reach the last paragraph. The man says "To illustrate how ridiculously low this index has reached, it's necessary to point out that the total market cap of the 14 components combined that make up the index is only $33 billion, yet these 14 companies generate sales of $136 billion per year equating to a price to sales ratio of 24% . In contrast, Yahoo's (YHOO) market cap is $5 billion more at $38 billion, yet YHOO's total sales are only $7 billion, making YHOO's price to sales ratio a very high 5.42."

    OK? You see upside here? You agree the oil shock is a bubble? Then buy today. Though we like JetBlue the most right now.

    In other news --

  • Where are all the small RJs going?
  • Swiss comes out of the shadow
  • Oil price bubble?
  • Virgin and Lufthansa? SRB wishes

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  • Monday, May 26, 2008

    Today's news

    The all business class sector is collapsing fast. ATW reports this morning: "Silverjet suspended trading of its shares on the London Stock Exchange's AIM market Friday owing to concerns about its working capital reserves. The Luton-based all-business-class carrier said it had not yet received a $5 million drawdown from a planned loan agreed by UAE investment group Viceroy Holdings and reiterated its April 30 statement that its "working capital reserves are limited" and it needs the funds "as a matter of urgency." It recently announced an agreement with Viceroy for an £8.4 million loan facility and a proposed £4.3 million subscription, giving Viceroy a 28% stake in Silverjet. It said last week that its "services continue as scheduled" and it is in discussions with other parties "which have confirmed an interest in investing in the company."

    It would seem the investor is doing the right thing by not getting involved in the sector. Of course there may be legal issues at this stage - like we have with Austrian and its investor. But the smart money will stay out of the sector. Would you invest in an airline now?

    Seems like Silverjet is the next collapse in this segment.

    In other news --

  • Bargain F-16s
  • Old planes need to go
  • Nimrod unsafe
  • CAA urges BAA breakup
  • jetBlue's upside
  • Kalitta's broken 747 - video

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  • Friday, May 23, 2008

    Today's news

    The Air Travel Demand Curve -- Yesterday we were asking this question. It seems Business Week was thinking the same thing. Interestingly they think US Airways is closer to hitting the wall than United - it can't be by much.

    Way down in the story you get to the most important statement - "Others worry that fares could rise so sharply that they will change the very nature of air travel." Um, yes that's where we are. The industry is broken and the fact that it cannot charge sustainable fares means what, exactly? The killer question is why this industry cannot cover its costs?

    The industry probably needs to increase fares across the board by 30% to break even. yesterday a Wall Street analyst stated 28% - but we think the overall impact requires an increase of about one third. Sure load factors will fall - but a fall from 80% to even 65% would be acceptable because the airlines would be covering their costs better. Moreover, AirTran announced today a $50 hike - well its good but not high enough.

    So why don't the airlines simply increase fares? Because you still have the mindset within these firms that says market share is king. They like to fight over the best deck chair on the Titanic. It requires brave and bold moves - somebody has to simply announce an immediate, bold, fare rise. If the others don't match the increase, then we know the pioneer gets arrows in its back in the form of an immediate drop in bookings. But this is where the brave part comes in. The airlines which do not match the increase will be busier but bleed faster.

    We really are in a place where he who bleeds slowest will survive.

    In other news --

  • eos pulls a fast one
  • Airline watch - who's next?
  • Alitalia rumor mill
  • ATA freaks out - a year late
  • BALPA withdraws - for now

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  • Thursday, May 22, 2008

    Today's news

    easyJet files claim -- easyJet has today formally submitted to the Administrative Court of the High Court its application for a Judicial Review of the UK Civil Aviation Authority’s decision in setting the price cap for charges at London Gatwick from 2008 to 2013. easyJet believes the way the CAA has allowed BAA to raise prices at LGW by 21% (from £5.61 to £6.79) this year, and by 31%+RPI by 2013* (which is likely to be around 51% assuming the current level of RPI) was wrong, on the following grounds:

    1. Unlawful departure from the Competition Commission’s (CC) recommendations. The statutory powers under which the CAA sets the price cap at designated airports (including LGW) requires that the CAA must refer its proposals to the CC, and to “have regard to” its recommendations and to state any reasons for not accepting them. It is our contention that the CAA gave insufficient weight to the recommendations of the CC

    2. Unlawful treatment of BAA’s late submission of operating expenditure costs. The CAA failed to adopt a fair and lawful approach to handling a £267 million (subsequently reduced to £218 million) “eleventh hour” operating expenditure submission from BAA. This was submitted on 8th November 2007, following more than two years of discussions; after the referral to the CC; and less than two weeks before the CAA was due to publish its firm proposals for airport charges

    3. Unlawfully disregarding the Competition Commission’s public interest finding that there was no justification for BAA to receive “bonus” payments for meeting service levels, for which it would already have been paid. The CAA ignored the CC's public interest finding in relation to the Service Quality Rebate (SQR) scheme, in which it saw no justification for bonuses to be paid to BAA for meeting its targets. Yet, the CAA has incorporated a bonus scheme into the price cap

    The Administrative Court of the High Court is likely to decide within six to eight weeks whether the CAA has a substantive case to answer. If it decides it has, a final decision is likely by the end of the year.

    Andy Harrison, easyJet Chief Executive, said: “This is the first time that the CAA has been subject to Judicial Review for a regulatory price decision. We are taking the action because we believe that the CAA acted unlawfully in agreeing an obscene increase in passenger fees at Gatwick Airport over the coming five years and, specifically, ignored the recommendations of the Competition Commission, which proposed a much tougher regulatory settlement on BAA.

    “In due course we hope that the Government’s review of UK airport regulation will bring about much-needed change by allowing genuine and effective inter-airport and inter-terminal competition at the major London airports. In the meantime we will continue to stand up for the consumer by opposing what we see as the CAA’s overly-generous attitude towards BAA.”

    * The CAA has allowed BAA to raise the price cap at London Gatwick by 21% (from £5.61 to £6.79) this year and by RPI +2% over the next five years. This represents an increase of 31% in real terms by 2013 and 49% in nominal terms, using the CAA’s assumed RPI. This figure would rise to 51% in nominal terms if today’s RPI rate of 3.0% per annum continues.

    In other news --

  • RyanAtlantic? MOL vs. SRB, not even a close race
  • How inelastic is the air travel demand curve?
  • MOL hangs tough on fuel scare
  • Continental announces new route - Cleveland-Paris - Cleveland?

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  • Wednesday, May 21, 2008

    Today's news

    Connectivity is still king -- In a move that highlights the need for continuous connectivity, Goodrich has bought TEAC. TEAC, which makes digital audio and video file-servers, is now part of Goodrich’s Sensors and Integrated Systems business, but still operating as TEAC Aerospace Technologies.

    Here is the meaty part -- Goodrich plans to expand the TEAC business, according to business development director Al McGowan. “We’re looking into links between the product lines that could provide offboard connectivity to update our video file-servers,” he says. Why is this so important? Because last December TEAC was contracted to supply its AE-1600SS solid-state digital audio reproducer for installation on more than 300 aircraft - Airbus A319s and A320s, Boeing 737s, 757s, 767s and 777s – operated by United Airlines.

    United wants to be able to update content on these devices with minimal human interface. That will require the ability to update content electronically. Were the updates available via a satellite connection of course, this would be easy to do.

    In other news --

  • Have a giggle - naughty flight crews - again
  • A350 needs a diet?
  • The United & Jet codeshare
  • SAS slows down
  • JP Morgan's report

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  • Tuesday, May 20, 2008

    Today's News

    Merger Reality Hits -- In the US, the Delta/Northwest merger talk has left the front pages. We and then see stories of the two CEOs talking up the merger but generally it is assumed that the deal will go through. However that does not mean everyone on Capitol Hill is no longer paying attention. Oh no.

    Take a look at this story. Meet Senator Max Baucus - Democrat from Montana. Already the last few words would disqualify him from having anything good to say about mergers. Democrats like big government not big business. Montana is a state that is beautiful (big sky country) and is a outdoor tourists dream. But after that, with less than 1 million people, the state has a population less than most cities.

    Baucus is the start. His lack of success means little - his colleagues will move on this as they too are going to see their states or cities hit. Remember this is the source of the Essential Air Service money that keeps that waste of resources funded. Politicians want to be able to fly wherever they want. Oberstar will be on this issue next, and then it will likely go through, stymieing the merger.

    In other news --

  • High Speed Rail at Heathrow
  • Southwest goes for the kill
  • Airbus sells six A350XWB Prestiges
  • BA and Balpa got to court

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  • Monday, May 19, 2008

    Today's news

    Bloomberg reports the flight went well. The project is five months behind schedule - but these days that looks like virtually on time. The success of this plane will be assured if it meets and is certified by the FAA and EAA. Because its the right size for many airlines and no doubt also the right price, it will find customers all over. But especially in places like Africa.

    African airlines are no different than any others; they need better fuel efficiency that comes with newer planes. problem is, few of them have the capital to buy the newest planes. These nations don't need big planes either. Often the runways in Africa are too short or narrow for bigger planes. Also, the need to connect out of the way towns with cities over long distances makes flying the better option. Railways in Africa are not well developed at all; fast trains don't exist.

    Along comes the Superjet; priced right and modern. provided the plane is well constructed (not like the one in the pictures we've seen so far) it should sell well among Africa's smaller airlines.

    In other news --

  • Airbus still wants a GE engine; meanwhile plays with P&W
  • iPod comes into its own
  • Sleep apnea and travel
  • The Great Slot War

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  • Friday, May 16, 2008

    Today's news

    Take a look at this story. These words give us pause "The dearth of qualified technical staff was a critical factor." If we're not mistaken, the same thing is hurting Boeing. Note also that Airbus does not see recruiting in India and China as a solution. On China we would agree 100%. In conversations with aerospace engineers, we have learned of a global network of such people that literally float from gig to gig. These folks range from ex-Fokker to ex-Eastern Europeans. With great skill sets and experience these people are found at Boeing, Bombardier, Gulfstream, Airbus and so on. The world is not producing enough of these skills. Proof of this is the messy supply chain Boeing is fighting with. The need is great on a global basis because the latest products from OEMs tends to require parts from just about everywhere. And with unions defending jobs, the globalization process is being hampered. This may be why Boeing feels it can poke fun at the dearth of aerospace skills in Alabama that Airbus and EADS need to tap into. While aerospace skills are tough to find, Alabama managed to acquire enough automobile assembly skills to build Mercedes SUVs. Meaning people are trainable anywhere. That said, there are nuances about aerospace that make it more complicated. So its not only a good time to be a pilot, its also a great time to be an aerospace engineer. This happy band of people are missing one important thing. Nobody has thought of organizing them into some sort of organization. Imagine the power they would have then. Yes, we are offering our services to those readers who get this.

    In other news --

  • Regionals start to crack under the strain
  • Does Glenn Tilton's arrogance know no bounds?
  • AirOne starts US service
  • BA's results
  • Two Connie videos

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  • Thursday, May 15, 2008

    Today's news

    Virgin Atlantic chose a time of acute discomfort for rival British Airways to announce improved passenger numbers at Heathrow airport. With BA striving to overcome the awful Heathrow T5 startup, Virgin said its new T3 facility had attracted thousands of new passengers.

    The facility opened last December and passenger numbers increased 4% last month, with the airline’s first-class numbers rising 10%. The airline said an independent report it commissioned showed 83% of passengers using the new facility rated it excellent or good.

    Virgin Atlantic CEO Steve Ridgway added: “Passengers are choosing to travel through our new terminal at Heathrow in their thousands. We are delighted with our early performance at T3, which is a credit to all the hard work put in every day by the Virgin Atlantic and BAA teams.”

    Note the pat on the back to BAA. BAA will enjoy this compliment immensely as its the only one they have received this year probably. Virgin endears itself to BAA, sticks BA in the eye (making it seem like all the T5 mess is the fault of BA not BAA) - British compliments can be piercing.

    In other news --

  • Possible 767 comeback
  • AirCell joins with iPass
  • China is at it again
  • EADS results
  • JetA demand drops
  • Singapore's "new" A340-500s

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  • Wednesday, May 14, 2008

    AirInsight goes subscriber

    A note to advise that AirInsight's podcast site is now following a subscriber model. The charge is $9.95 per month of $115 per year and they plan on doing at least one podcast each week.

    Today's news

    A reminder -- We, who for a strange inexplicable reason unchartered in logic, love aviation occasionally need to get our emotional bearings reset. Typically this takes the form of news that shocks us out of our JetA-induced myopia. Here is such a piece of news. In a few words the author serves a not so tasty meal we need to digest.

  • Airbus catches the spirit
  • Branson should bite at this
  • Heathrow's MD quits
  • More 1Q08 results - sobering reading
  • US DoT catches EU by surprise - Congress no doubt as well

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  • Monday, May 12, 2008

    Today's news

    The Gulf airlines have attracted a lot of attention. Their region is one where every airplane salesman wants to work. Customers with lots of cash to burn to fuel unlimited ambitions. So imagine our surprise to hear this. Etihad Airways is in talks with BMI and others about working more closely together.

    The Abu Dhabi-based airline could code-share with BMI and several others including India's Jet Airways, the Sunday Express quoted Etihad chief executive James Hogan, who was chief executive of BMI until 2001.

    First it shows that Hogan's training in coming into play. He is less likely to be drinking the regional Kool Aid, which seems to have impacted the thinking of many region aviation managers. Cooperating with Jet works well given the growing traffic between India and the Gulf. Cooperation with BMI also makes sense in that Etihad builds feeder services from around the UK and EU. This cooperation can ensure higher loads for all three airlines and therefore better asset utilization - not to mention better revenues.

    The background of this dealing is clearly that Etihad becoming friends with BMI means the Germans will be appraised of the details sooner or later. Consequently what we are watching for is any sign that Etihad and Lufthansa become friendlier. This would make enormous sense for Etihad. Access to Lufthansa means premier MRO expertise to tap into plus a relationship with one of the airline groups we expect to be around in a decade or more.

    Mr. Hogan seems to be playing his cards very well. Etihad is better for it.

  • Some truths come home to roost
  • Essential Air Service - Hawaii comes to Kansas
  • Hello Azul
  • China and the Internet

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  • Friday, May 09, 2008

    Today's news

    Remember the cargo price fixing deal? The US Department of Justice undertook a wide-ranging investigation of the air transportation industry by the Justice Department's antitrust division that has led to guilty pleas by Japan Airlines, British Airways and Korean Air Lines.

    Well lookee here as they say -- A former Qantas vice president will serve eight months in prison as part of a plea agreement for conspiring to fix prices for shipping air cargo. Bruce McCaffrey, formerly a Qantas vice president for freight for the Americas, agreed to plead guilty to price fixing, serve prison time and pay a $20,000 fine, the DoJ said in a statement. McCaffrey is accused with going to meetings and having other communications with people from other carriers to discuss cargo rates to be charged on some routes to and from the United States, the department said in a statement.

    Qantas itself pleaded guilty to conspiring to fix prices between January 2000 and February 2006, and agreed to pay $61m in fines. In April, Japan Airlines agreed to plead guilty to conspiring to fix air cargo prices and paid a $110m fine. British Airways and Korean Air Lines pleaded guilty last year and paid $300m in fines.

    OK, here's our $100m question. Why is this man the only one going to jail? At these meetings, was he the only one present? Sure, putting people in jail will keep business cleaner. But surely there cannot be only one man involved.

  • Sabre's Hybrid report
  • C-17 gets another reprieve

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  • Thursday, May 08, 2008

    Today's news

    Use this link to read the funniest pilot note - maybe ever.

  • DayJet shrinks - and what of Eclipse?
  • Boeing has labor trouble
  • Airbus' Power8 fizzles
  • American has more wiring fixes - FAA is downright polite this time
  • Austrian and its investor

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  • Wednesday, May 07, 2008

    Today's news

    As if the KC-45 team needed this to leak out now. It seems the boom, a billion dollar investment by EADS, is not quite doing what it is supposed to. This language is not the sort to create confidence - "What is actually being done to the boom during this period is a bit murky. The boom will receive some additional parts and modifications while the aircraft is on the ground." Boeing's tanker team will be all over this story. It will point to this as an example of why Boeing's solution should be selected since their boom works fine. Of course nobody can really imagine an A330 using the Boeing boom - but never mind.
  • Panasonic makes a move but remains behind Row44
  • Is the traffic meltdown starting?
  • US Traffic Overhaul Bill derails - government at work, not!
  • T5's costly fiasco - not a clear picture

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  • Monday, May 05, 2008

    Today's news

    Fascinated by US aviation policy? If so, and you have the time to think about this matter, then you must read this blog. It has a broad range of information and its author is a self described policy wonk. You can learn an awful lot from this blog.
  • DoD boosts commercial air freight business
  • Tim Clark's travel plans
  • United seeks financial flexibility
  • Italian Aviation Opera - enter the Germans

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  • Friday, May 02, 2008

    Today's news

  • The Bear gets a friend
  • Airlines slow down to save gas
  • First quarter orders
  • A380 delay costs emerge
  • American blasts the FAA

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  • Thursday, May 01, 2008

    Today's news

  • Toyota enters the game
  • Boeing blinks in Swiss Air Force procurement
  • The game of risk - airline version
  • GOL struggles

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