Those NYC slot auctions that drove the airlines into a tizzy seemed to have hit a wall. Check this story. Of course the airlines are happy; they continue to operate space inefficient small planes into the air space over the NY region. The idea is that passengers like the "choice".

Well perhaps they do - but then they are not being offered the real choice here. That would be on time ops vs. a myriad of city pairs. Clearly what consumers don't understand is the trade off they face. On the one hand you have airports that want more (always more) flights because they get paid fees for each landing. The airlines want more (always much more) because they want to slice traffic into the smallest of slices. This would be great if the sky were able to grow and handle all this.

But not only is the sky limited, the people who run the lanes in the sky to keep planes safely far from each other are finite. We concur with the FAA that the NYC sky is now too full. However the airlines and airports have a point too, the FAA is not fixing its traffic flow abilities. How many decades have they been through trying to get their equipment current? Its a royal mess.

So while its fine to yell at the FAA and probably Congress too, the sky is still not expanding. Until there is a disaster in the sky over NYC the bickering will continue. Even then, this being America, a disaster will lead to finger pointing.

The problem with democracy is that you get the government you deserve not the government you want.

In other news --

• Top Ten fighters
• Zoom done for
• F-35 competition mounts
• Aer Lingus - what next? (MOL in the wings)
• Lufthansa strikes with Brussels move

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

A Ryanair flight was forced to make an emergency landing after a jar of mushrooms leaked on to a passenger from an overhead locker, triggering a severe allergic reaction. The plane, in flight between Budapest and Dublin, was forced to land at Frankfurt after a man started choking. He was taken to hospital and the flight was grounded.

A Ryanair spokesman said: “Somebody put a jar that was open in the overhead compartment and it leaked. We cleaned the aircraft up afterwards and that was it.” He added: “If a passenger gets ill on board we always divert to the nearest airport. It's taken from health and safety and the cabin crew and pilot take that decision after asking the passenger.”

This incident comes less than two days after another Ryanair plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Limoges after a sudden drop in cabin pressure. Rumors that these events are tests of a new in-flight entertainment system are just nefarious rumors we hear, designed to upset prickly MOL. Of course if he could charge for this, he would.

In other news --

• USAF experiments working well
• Zoom-ing to nowhere
• Philippine luggage
• Aer Lingus' results - where is MOL on this?
• Qantas eyes the 777-300ER

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Delta CEO Richard Anderson said in a letter to employees "Delta’s position on this issue is that we are opposed to American’s and British Airways’ move unless regulators require [them] to give up a significant number of slots to other competitors at Heathrow so we can have access”. Recall WW already said he was not giving up any slots. Delta (the new bigger one) wants these slots for five flights a day to JFK, three or four flights a day to Atlanta, and two or three times a day to Detroit.

This request puts Delta and Virgin in the same camp, sort of. Delta's position is that because Heathrow does not offer "unfettered" access, BAAAIB needs to give up slots to make it so.

In other news --

• Great news from Southwest
• United's orange bracelets
• Turkish throws its hat in
• Russia's airline re-nationalization
• Ryanair's emergency

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

No Frills - an old story

An oldie but goodie....

Its been a while and we have consciously tried to wait as along as possible before dealing with this again. But it looks like its time.

A group of Italian businessmen met Alitalia's sale adviser on Monday and confirmed their willingness to invest in the troubled carrier as part of its latest rescue plan.

In true Italian "family" ways this is what we hear. That meeting is likely to be followed by an injection of funds by potential investors such as Carlo Toto, the head of smaller rival Air One, and wealthy Italian business families the Fossatis, Ligrestis, Rivas and Apontes.

Who are these people? Here's another "name": Roberto Colaninno CEO at Piaggio (scooters not planes) is tipped to be executive chairman of Alitalia, and Rocco Sabelli, a turnaround expert who worked with Colaninno at Piaggio and is in line for CEO at Alitalia.

So if this airline is going to be rescued, it will be an Italian family affair. Which is (sort of) what Berlusconi wanted. Perhaps these families are all his buddies after all. Keeping it among the family is an old Italian tradition is it not?

In other news --

• SAAB goes for it
• Virgin's numbers impress
• Its still war in Hawaii
• Kingfisher switches A345s

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

The crash in Madrid now has over 150 victims. Then came the crash in Kyrgyzstan, also on take off, with 68 fatalities. Then came the crash in Guatemala, which saw ten fatalities. Finally, there was another crash in Utah this weekend, with ten fatalities - also on takeoff.

This is simply awful news. 238 dead in plane crashes over the past week. Had this been all in one event it would have been called a disaster. Yet it is no less over four events. Commercial aviation truly cannot afford so much negative attention. Through in appalling service levels, shocking fare levels and, frankly, capricious security, one has to wonder about the joy of jetting across the globe in a matter of hours. Now throw in concerns about safety and what do you have? Can any industry that so relies on the trust of strangers endure?

In other news --

• Circling Austrian
• UAVs in traffic
• The return of the compound turbo concept
• Boeing "insults" union?

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

FT reports that talks have been held with countries including Japan about offloading large numbers (88) of Eurofighter Typhoons that the British MoD ordered but can no longer afford. The talks, which officials say are at an early stage, underline the scale of the cash crisis facing the MoD as it grapples with an estimated budget deficit of £2bn.

Imagine the hue and cry that should ensue. The RAF wanted lots of these planes because they are so good. Actually Europe needed big orders to make the plane work. Something France is struggling with around the Rafale. So the taxpayers are shafted once again. We can't wait to hear what Richard Aboulafia has to say about this deal.

The Japanese note is interesting as they want something newer than the F-15 but Uncle Sam won't share the F-22 - yet. So if Typhoon is having a rough time, you would think the RAF might "assist" with its Indian sales campaign, would you not? Maybe a deal the Indians can't refuse?

In other news --

• Syria wants more Russian arms - big deal
• Free airport WiFi
• Tanker again - it gets tougher
• India's SU-30's restricted at Red Flag
• Global air traffic continues to soften

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Take a look. The guy fairly tests every angle. A call to AirCell yesterday revealed how tense everyone was at rollout.

American has 16 767-200ERs used for US domestic services with GoGo installed. The service is to be found on flights between New York and San Francisco, Los Angeles and Miami.

In other news --

• CSAR procurement due any day -Boeing a winner again?
• The Huey makes another comeback - and looks cool too
• BAA break up announced
• Madrid crash
• Emirates tidbit - the A380 seems very efficient

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

You know the feeling - off a long flight, maybe 8 or more time zones and you really are not feeling your best. But you stumble off the plane and start the endless walk through featureless tunnels. As you walk, there's more people coming from everywhere. If you are prone to being schizophrenic, this is a time of great angst.

Ahead of you is the huge room, with thousands of people. The room is quiet and at the far end are little cubicles containing what look like apes in clothes with funny hats. As you get closer, they still look like apes. But you're tired and maybe your eyes are playing tricks. The room is very bright after all.

And then its your turn at the cubicle - hey its a human that looks apelike. Big head, short hair, low forehead and even eyes too close together. This person takes your passport but his eyes never leave yours. If he looked fully human, you'd think he's making a pass at you. But he's not - his view is that you are most likely a criminal. And this happens thousands of time each day at airports the world over.

Don't be too depressed, a solution is coming. Take a look here. Ah technology comes through again. Imagine the spiked hair person in the lower picture even has the brains to even know whether to let you into the country or not! The kid looks like this is summer job from high school.

In other news --

• Grob bites the dust
• The rush to split up
• easyJet's response to BAA's news
• BAA break news
• Air New Zealand's efficiency test flight

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Its not like the managers at Boeing have time on their hands to handle another mess. But one is brewing. Boeing's restive unions are going to make it a tough few months to come. Right in the middle of all the other things going on.

"While building its global supplier network, The Boeing Company is putting delivery schedules and programs at risk by failing to track the number and locations of foreign workers at its U.S. facilities, according to the union representing 21,500 engineers and technical workers at the aerospace giant." With these opening words you where this is headed. SPEEA says it is noticing a growing number of mistakes by inexperienced foreign workers at Boeing’s or its partners’ sites here in the United States.

This will hurt because Boeing is committed to the off shoring of a huge amount of work. Boeing can ill afford a strike now. But things look that way and the union is taking a very aggressive stance.

In other news --

• Galaxy C-5M completes tests
• TAM's shiny 777-300ER
• In Flight WiFi - Brancatelli vs. vendors
• 6% decline in holiday traffic expected

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Reading this story is frustrating. Yes the USA has valid security concerns. But do the most sensitive areas have to make use of people that appear to be the least qualified and with the lowest talent? One more example of how you can cover up all sorts of crap with a security blanket.

In other news --

• Hello Netbook
• Georgia - the impact and costs rise
• WW won't give up slots - for now
• BAA news

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

The WSJ's Middle Seat blog is something to add to your reading. Especially this week - take a look.

As advocates of camera phones and any other devices to record the rising ineptitude on US airlines, we think this story needs to be highlighted. As you read this, we know you're smiling (we are too). See? That camera you are carrying is the ONE device that scares the crap out of flight crews. They are terrified of YouTube.

Can you imagine this woman was led off the planes in handcuffs? So the stupidity multiplied a thousandfold. Imagine the damage jetBlue faces now? The giant "security" blanket that is used as a cover for everything is SO bogus. If anything ever was provided to the entire industry by ElAl, that would be it. You can hide anything under that blanket and appear reasonable. Well folks, its crap.

Imagine the concept of telling you that you cannot use a camera? It is outrageous. At what stage do customers realize that airlines are hiding their rising incompetence? Read the comments below the link to one made by the person of whom the story is about -

"Something DID happen to me. I am being written up to the FAA and was told I may no longer fly on Jet Blue and it will be difficult for me to fly ANY airline. I am a wildlife/travel photographer who travels A LOT! I was punished for standing up for my rights.

Yes, I am a grandmother too…I was on my way home from seeing my newborn grandchild who had just survived 2 heart surgeries in her first 2 weeks of of life. Kids were on my mind. Traveling with kids was on my mind since the baby will be flying across country soon. The people in the video never asked me to delete it. The flight attendant, who is in the video, but NOT recognizable was the one pressuring me to delete it OR ELSE!! Comment by marilyn parver"

In other news --

• When orders hit the magic 1,000 mark
• SRB on BAAAAIB - sounds like baby?
• Clever AirTran
• View from Russia

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

There has been a paucity in reporting about the war in Georgia from an aviation perspective. Perhaps its too soon, as one source said yesterday. He pointed out that it took a long time to get at the back story on how the USAF Nighthawk was shot down. However, for those of you who caught the podcast yesterday, it is clear that enough information is coming through to get an initial idea. Today there is a good analysis from AviationWeek here.

Interestingly the AviationWeek story talks about the extensive Israeli experience that is being put to use by Georgia. There may be a lot more to that point that will come out later. We are aware that within Israel at present there are two schools; one says that they need to accelerate assistance to Georgia as a customer in good standing while the other says to slow down so as not to irritate Russia. The latter argument carries little water as Russia has no compunction arming Israel's neighbors with its best at any time that suits Moscow.

Meanwhile we are in touch with a correspondent on the ground in Georgia and plan to speak with him in the hour. His initial email says a lot - "am in western Georgia now, heading east. unless something dramatically changes, it is pretty easy to say that the Russian aviation rule the skies. Just got flown over by 3 bombers this AM, over Zugdidi, and no one hardly looked up because it is so ordinary and there is the sense that nothing can be done."

In other news --

• MMI report
• American accelerates MD-80 retirements
• AA, BA and IB go for the big one - SRB's nightmare
• Austrian sale is on

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Remember the Al Yamamah scandal? The one with the naughty Saudis getting all that baksheesh from buy all the weaponry the British could sell? There was sorts of talk that the UK state legal investigations would continue - as if. Its gone real quiet.

And now we hear why - Saudi Arabia has begun discussions to buy a second batch of Eurofighter Typhoons in what could lead to another multi-billion pound order for BAE Systems. The Saudi Royal Air Force already has 72 Typhoons on order from the UK government under an agreement signed last September and which are being built by BAE.

High oil prices solve so many nasty inconveniences. With bucket loads of extra moola, all sorts of inconveneint news can be made to go away.

In other news --

• United under the gun
• American's baggage rules hurt
• Qantas MRO under microscope
• BAA breakup getting closer

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

The Investor Vomit Comet -- Take a look at this. This is such a great piece that it should be required reading for anyone thinking of investing in US airline stocks.

In other news --

• 707 re-engine
• 747 flyby - and the pilot wasn't fired!
• Is Boeing pouting?
• Georgia on my mind
• Delta & Northwest pilots make a deal
• ATA files suit over slots

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

The results of a survey, "Opinions on Cell Phone Use on aircraft, Congestion, and Telecommuting", are available here. There are signs that the US public is beginning to understand that onboard cellphone is not all that bad.

A survey just publicized by the US DoT reveals that as far back as last November – months before Emirates became the first airline in the world to offer mobile phone in the cabin on a full commercial basis - four out of 10 US residents felt that passengers should definitely or probably be allowed to use cellphones as long as there was no interference with aircraft communications systems. Some 45% said they definitely or probably should not be used, with the remaining 15% saying they weren’t sure.

This is a quite different picture of US sentiment on the issue than the one put forward by the orchestrated blizzard of objections provoked a couple of years ago by the FCC’s proposed relaxation of its ban on airborne phone use. It could also prove to be the first step in a process that will see US carriers hurriedly trying to make for lost time as their competitors in the rest of the world implement a facility that is proving popular and uncontroversial with Emirates’ passengers.

The DoT survey showed that younger respondents were most likely to support cellphone use. Almost half of those aged between 18 and 34 said passengers should definitely or probably be allowed to use their phones, while fewer than four out of ten supported a continuing ban. Among the over-65s about one in four said passengers should definitely or probably be allowed to use phones, with more than half against. In the 35-64 age group, four in ten were for, with less than half against.

Regular readers may recall how we have stated all along that the opposition to the use of cell phones in flight has been a crock. Nice to see the DoT data supports this view. It is not with tongue in cheek that we state our belief that the airline staff are against in flight phone use because people will be taking their phones out, and capturing in flight incompetence and posting it on YouTube in real time. Moreover passengers will use their phones to call media contacts (we might provide a list online BTW) about airline incompetence. Airlines have something to fear - especially the flight attendant unions.

In other news --

• Marsans hangs tough
• Branson starts whining
• BAA break up coming?

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Austrian Airlines will need to halve its fleet to 40 to 50 planes if no strategic partner bought into the carrier, a board member said. Austria's government earlier this week agreed to offer part of its 43% stake in the carrier to foreign airlines after Austrian warned of widening losses this year due to the rise in fuel prices and the global economic slowdown.

A majority of Austrian's board supports a sale to Lufthansa, though other possible buyers discussed by the airline operator include Air France KLM, Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines. "Without a large partner we simply cannot stem the synergies we need for our long-distance routes," Andreas Bierwirth, Austrian's chief commercial officer, told journalists during a trip to Syria's capital Damascus. "Without a partner, Austrian Airlines would have to shrink to 40 or 50 aircraft," from around 100, he said.

As if Lufthansa's mangers don't have enough trouble with their strikes, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said on Thursday that a "big foreign company" was in talks to forge an alliance with troubled national carrier, without specifying further. Berlusconi is under pressure from unions and the opposition to salvage Alitalia after his rhetoric on an Italian rescue helped scupper a deal with Air France-KLM. Media reports have said the government would now prefer an alliance with Lufthansa. Adding weight to the Lufthansa interest, Italian carrier Air One's chief Carlo Toto on Thursday sought to play down concerns the airline could be in financial trouble and confirmed it was willing to do its part to rescue larger rival Alitalia.

In other news --

• GOL slows
• Singapore's relaunched A340-500s
• Qantas MRO mishaps - the Malaysians respond
• MOL's pricing insight

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Is this mist?

This picture was taken on August 5th outside that impressive Olympic stadium in Beijing. Yes, you could say its smoggy. Here's another one. For those of you about to be consumed by Olympic fever, add this site to your bookmarks; perhaps also this one.

In other news --

• Cathay's first half loss
• Bus Rage
• Revised tanker RFP
• Lufthansa starts to wobble
• Fueling change

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Flight has an interesting report. Since United Airlines has already come to an agreement with IAE over the engines, the airline might lose its deposits on the order if they don't make use of the funds with Airbus.

We don't think United will cancel the order completely. First the amount of money involved is huge - just under $100m. That's more than two years of Tilton's bonuses and you can be sure he wants that cash. Second, although these deposits are "non transferable", we would bet Airbus would find a way to apply these funds to any A380, A350 or even A330 order United might consider.

United badly needs new planes - especially long haul planes. The newest planes in its fleet are 777A's and A320/319s. It would be unlikely, in our view, that United will walk away from from so much money.

In other news --

• OAG - aviation's worst downturn
• Thai buys A380s
• jetBlue to test JFK systems
• MOL and his 400 plane "order"

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

How time flies -- Singapore Airlines made aviation history again, operating its 1,000th A380 flight. SQ 322, which departed from Singapore for Heathrow on August 4, was the 1000th A380 flight since operations of the aircraft launched on 25 October 2007. SIA’s A380 has performed remarkably during its almost-ten months of commercial service, clocking 8,500 flying hours and carrying almost 400,000 customers. The airline currently has five A380s in service. It is scheduled to receive a further 14 A380s (the next one in September), and has options on six more.

In other news --

• Delta and AirCell make a deal
• jetBlue and the $7 pillow
• Iran at it again
• India watches the deals get sweeter
• O Force One
• AF/KLM earnings
• The other side of fuel hedging
• AA and BA try again

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Aircraft Interiors Show Long Beach

Reed is putting together an aircraft interiors exhibition and conference next month in Long Beach, California. This brings a unique interiors networking and supply chain opportunity to the Americas region. Aircraft Interiors Expo, Long Beach, California, is co-located with the World Airline Entertainment Association annual conference and exhibition (WAEA) creating a 'one-stop-shop' for the aircraft interiors industry'. You can check out more about the event here. IAG will be there doing podcasts and interviews as well as getting as many pictures as we can. Here's another neat presentation about the show.

Its time to make plans, serious plans. Take a look at this story. At $139,000 its not cheap - and that's before you put in any gas. But it sure sounds like fun.

- 1,320 pounds maximum takeoff weight (1,430 pounds for seaplanes) - Maximum airspeed of 120 knots (138 mph) - Maximum two-person seating capacity (pilot + passenger) - Single, reciprocating engine - Fixed or ground-adjustable propeller - Non-pressurized cabin - Fixed landing gear (retractable gear allowed for seaplanes) - Maximum stalling speed of 45 knots (52 mph)

In other news --

• XF-12 Rainbow
• Mooney & RR
• More on the new South Africa
• Geoff Thomas and Tim Clark
• et tu Qantas?

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

Flight Global is reporting that BA has ordered 6 777-300ERs plus four options. Now the reason given for these orders is the delay in the 787. OK, so there is reason to believe then that Qantas might do the same thing as they have an even greater exposure to 787 delays.

But wait - how does the 777-300ER compensate for a 787 delay? These planes are very different. On the face of it, a 777-300 is not a 787 replacement. It is a better replacement for a 744. As Flight reports "Walsh says the new 777-300ERs will be 23% more fuel-efficient than the carrier’s 747-400s."

Clearly talking about 777s and 787s is making the whole story foggy. That BA needs the 777-300ER is self evident. But only as a replacement for older 744s it will retire. The 787 will fly long hauls, just like the 777. If BA were to have bought more 777-200s as interim 787 cover that would make more sense. But the -300 is a big boy plane in the 744 category.

Besides, Boeing must have offered a sweet deal as this is probably their most profitable plane and nobody else is getting such a deal (hint, something Qantas wants). So how committed is BA to this plane? The small order will have some analysts saying it means nothing, BA could still go for the A350 later on. Sure they can, but once an airline has the 777-300ER they typically buy more because its such an amazing machine. Moreover, Boeing will tweak the plane as it does with all its models, squeezing more out of it each year. In addition, GE will tweak those engines the same way.

As much as some would say this was a less than ringing endorsement, we see this as a Trojan horse. Boeing did a smart thing here - giving BA a deal on this plane no doubt came with help from GE who would like to wean BA from its RR dependency. Just as Airbus is able to "play" with its A330 to keep customers sweet, Boeing has the 777-300ER. We would bet that BA finds the 777-300ER over delivers and then decides it wants more.

In other news --

• TSA never lets us down
• Embraer's great numbers
• BA's not great numbers
• CAAC's heavy hand
• Lufthansa blinks - smart

Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram