IATA January numbers

Beware, as you read these numbers, you may feel a rising sickness in your stomach.

International passenger travel was down 5.6% in January 2007 compared to January 2008. That’s worse than the 4.6% decline December over December. Cargo numbers were even worse in January - 23.2% down on a year ago. No wonder SIA wants to quit paying its freighter pilots. But wait, there's more. "Now you have two situations, not just the problem of airlines not anymore interested in having this capacity, but also the financing," Giovanni Bisignani, director general and chief executive of IATA said at a conference today. "In order to finance those planes, you need at least $20bn from the financial institutions. And I don't think that there is $20bn available to finance those kinds of projects."

After these chilling words, he went on: Bisignani said air traffic demand has been falling at an alarming rate, and that he expects to increase IATA's capacity-cut forecast for 2009 by one or two percentage points from the current 3%.

Things are starting to come apart quickly. Too quickly, and there's no knowing how this might end. Maybe the sky is falling.

In other news --

• Inmarsat goes global
• Cool C-130 data point
• Emirates' expansion to NZ via Sydney (of course!)
• SRB's 8 day world tour

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Ryanair attacks blogger

Now here's an unsubtle attack on member of a group, far bigger and probably smarter, than everyone at Ryanair added together.

Bear in mind that it was bloggers that brought a very famous American TV newsman (Dan Rather) and embarrassed his multi-billion dollar employer. You can be sure that Ryanair has done itself a power of no good. Not only does the airline look stupid to the public as a whole; they have riled a bunch of tech-savvy people. The kind of people who are likely, just because they can, to pick at Ryanair's web site and give it stress tests like never before. Sure Ryanair can capture every IP address - savvy bloggers know how to hide these - but you know even as you read this there are bloggers out there somewhere doing this right now.

The aggressive, nasty and unnecessary reaction from Ryanair was very short sighted. Feel sorry for the airline's IT folks. As you tell from the Ryanair staff comments, one at least, doesn't seem too well educated. Oh boy, where's the win here?

In other news --

• ANZ profits down nearly 80%
• Meet Gaza
• THY crash
• On-time reporting makes a comeback

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

SAA pilot feedback

Posted to the web on: 23 February 2009. SAA pilots: our side of the story ________________________________________ As told by one of SAA’s pilots on the latest drug scandal. A second SAA crew was arrested last Monday on drug trafficking charges after a cosmetics bag containing 2kg of cocaine was found in the crew bus. This letter first appeared on SAA Pilot’s Association's website. ----------------- When the customs official at the Queens Building asked us to come inside and bring all our luggage, there was no real surprise. Given what had happened only a few weeks ago, one can only expect to be searched in London now. We had to line up all our bags down the centre of the room, and stand next to what we were claiming to belong to us. Then one of Her Majesty’s officials walked in with another small blue bag that had been left in the luggage hold of the bus. He asked who it belonged to and no one came forward. That’s when my heart fell out the bottom of my trousers, as I new straight away, here was trouble. I could not believe it! He placed the unclaimed bag at the end of the line, and a sniffer dog started working down the line of bags from the opposite end, and when it reached the bag he "reacted positively" as I heard them say later. This bag was then removed and placed on a table where it was opened, and the contents removed. Shortly after this, we were informed that we were all under arrest for suspicion of smuggling a controlled substance. We had landed at Heathrow at 06:15(z) and were placed under arrest by 07:20(z)!! They read us our rights and informed us that we were not to use our mobile phones at all. We, the Pilots, were outraged and furious, as one could only imagine. There are no words that I can write here to describe the rage that started building in us. A lengthy process of individual luggage searches and body searches was then carried out. What added to our indescribable anger was the fact that it was quite obvious that the customs officials were not much interested in the Pilots at all. Our luggage searches were very brief and un-thorough, as were our body "pat-downs" ( most cabin crew had EVERY piece of their luggage rifled through, and were stripped to their underwear during the body search!) After repeated appeals by the Captain for the culprit to come forward, we were bussed to a "holding facility" ( read jail ) which was about ten minutes to the northwest of Heathrow. We arrived here at about 11:30(z), and this was when the full gravity of the situation hit home. As we entered through huge security gates, a warden came to the drivers window: "How many prisoners do you have?" he asked. We went up to the third floor of this building where we were "booked in". Some paper work had to be completed. Luggage, phones and computers sealed into evidence bags and confiscated. We had to remove our wings, belts, ties etc. anything that we could use to try and harm ourselves! We were then ushered to separate, individual cells where the door was locked behind us with a clang, and that was it. The cell was about 4 x 3 metres with a concrete floor, a concrete slab on one side with a small mattress on top, sheet, blanket and pillow. There was a small corner basin and a flushing bowl resembling a toilet. (I believe that the cabin crews’ cells did not even have the luxury of the basin and loo). Shortly after being locked in the cell, the small slot just below the window of the solid iron door slid open with a clunk and a tray of food was slid through the opening. (Much later, after we were released, the three of us realised that we were all having similar stomach problems) We tried to sleep, as we were all quite exhausted by this stage, but couldn’t. They kept us awake by constantly disturbing us for arbitrary things. I could see Heathrow out my window, and passed the time by watching the departures off 27R. Interestingly, the cell was completely sound proof to the outside environment, as one could not hear the aircraft at all, but there was constant noise inside the cell from slamming doors etc and eventually I think most gave up even trying to sleep. We then started, one by one, to see the solicitors that SAA had arranged for us. He explained what the procedure would be going forward, and told us that they were hoping to arrange bail for us by that evening. We then each had to be interrogated, with the solicitor present and tape recorder running. We answered what questions we could. After that was finished it was back to our individual "suites" to stare at the ceiling or out the window or try and sleep or whatever one could think of doing. ( The thought did cross my mind that Her Majesty’s prison bunks were more comfortable than those on our A340’s!! ) Eventually, at about 23:30(z) the solicitor came to tell us the good news that they were going to bail us, and we met up at the "check-in desk" once more. The procedure now was to go to a local police station where Mr Plod had to fill out more paper work and carry out the bailing procedure. Our things were returned to us and we decided amongst ourselves that we would get redressed in our full uniform (however smelly!!) and proceed to the police station with what little pride we could muster. They put us ( cockpit crew ) into two cars, escorted by customs officials, and took us to the Uxbridge police station where we were finger printed, mug shots taken and also a DNA sample was extracted. SAA had arranged for a mini-cab to collect us at Mr Plods place, and we finally arrived at the Hotel at 02:00(z) We had been awake for approximately 32 hours. Jill Beck, one of the SAA managers in London was in the mini-cab to meet us at the police station, even at that hour, and she was really fantastic to us throughout the rest of our stay in London. The support from SAAPA, Johnny Woods, Les Wahl and various SAA managers, both in London and at home was great. Our families were kept in the loop as to what was happening. As I described earlier, the incredible anger and frustration during this whole ordeal was overbearing and exhausting. Various messages from colleagues, family and friends via voice mail and sms were well received. We have all been struggling to sleep, probably from the stress, but are very pleased to be home with our families where hopefully we will be able to unwind. There are six of us now, who have had to endure this outrageous predicament. IT MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

In other news --

• Southwest launches nationwide sale
• Abu Dhabi airport's surprising growth - et tu Dubai?
• AirAsia does A330 deal
• Somebody wants a free ticket

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Competition forces USAirways back

There was a time when Doug Parker's team thought hey could do no wrong - they led the industry in obnoxious fees. Today they realized they went too far and its time to come back. On Match 1st free drinks make a comeback. The industry did not follow down this road and the airline looked, frankly, stupid. Clearly there is a modicum (barely measurable) of feeling left for customers in the industry. Fuel costs have collapsed but how about those fees? Nope - they are all still there. The problem with fees is that once they exist, taking them away looks dumb. Ask Doug.

However, we should not expect to see Southwest add any of these moronic fees. They remain fee-free and therefore as beloved as ever. They also seem to be flying fuller and keen to take the fight to bigger cities. Residents on these places need to rejoice - a better future beckons.

In other news --

• The Thunderbird ejection
• Virgin across the Pacific - round the world now
• BAA does u-turn on Stansted
• Don't bring explosives on to a plane

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

AeroMobile and OnAir on a roll

These two narrow band connectivity providers are on a roll. OnAir CEO Benoit Debains expects to see a flurry of launches over the coming months and is confident of having 90-100 aircraft operational and no fewer than 14 committed airlines in the bag by the end of the year. MOL said Ryanair would equip its entire 181-strong fleet if the six-month trial, on 20 mainly Dublin-based 737s, proved satisfactory. Further installations, carried out by Ryanair’s own engineering staff, will continue in the meantime, bringing the total of outfitted aircraft to around 50 by the end of the trial period. If it makes money, MOL will call it a success.

AeroMobile continues to go from strength to strength also, with launch customer Emirates, while new long-haul carrier V Australia is gearing up to offer the service from the summer. Other customers are Qantas and Saudi Arabian Airlines, while Malaysian Airlines is carrying out a trial with a view adopting the service if the results are satisfactory. The AeroMobile capability is integrated with the Panasonic eX2 IFE system, a solution that the Californian manufacturer brands eXphone. It allows passengers to send and receive text messages and email via their own mobiles and BlackBerry-type devices. In case you wonder about the popularity of in-flight connectivity, Emirates has recorded the 100,000th passenger access to its AeroMobile-supplied onboard mobile phone service just two months after reaching the 50,000 mark.

In other news --

• Swiss' new first class
• Expedia's numbers - scary
• Ryanair to remove check-in desks - new meaning to self service
• Another slump hits BAA

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Here we go again on the tanker

Reuters reports that Northrop touts their tanker as just the thing now that Kyrgyzstan closed the base to the US and NATO. Well it could be argued that Northrop was clever making the first move on the news. But all this does is get Boeing started and now there are Dan Beck's reasonable responses.

Of course the good thing here is that losing the base does highlight the fact that the current tankers are way old and limited. Clearly the aviation component in any action will remain paramount. That means assets will need refueling - and the loss of the base does highlight vulnerabilities.

But with all the billions being spent (wasted?) on all manner of pet projects (Pelosi's folly especially) there is nary a dollar for tankers. Even the Pentagon is scrambling to find dollars to buy F-35s, C-17s and F-22s. And then there all those UAVs they want.

In other news --

• The 20ft takeoff
• Airbus revises production rates
• Embraer lays off 20%!
• Hawaiian shines

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Alaska Airlines and the MD-80

With a 2008 airline average of 1.4% cancellations and 6.9% of arrivals being 45 or more minutes late, Alaska's fleet could do with some fixing. So where are the problems? IAG's AirInsight database has some neat data.

Among the 737-400s, N767AS and N768AS and N795AS stand out as being relative dogs. Results are in the table below. By comparison the 737-800s and -900s are doing much better.

Tail	45m+	Cancellation
N767AS	10.4%	1.1%
N768AS	9.3%	2%
N795AS	9.4%	1.6%

However the MD-80s come in for special mention. Overall, these planes average 7.2% delays of 45 minutes or more and 2.3% of their flights were canceled. N979AS is the baddest of the mad dogs - 13.9% of flights were delayed 45 minutes or more and 19.4% of its flights were canceled. Interestingly these two were built in 1996 and 1997 respectively. Let's hope that the only buyer of MD-80s left in the US, Allegiant, does not pick these two. Before you go - American's MD-83s (like the Alaska planes) average 11.8% delays of 45 minutes or more and 0.3% cancellations. Delta's MD-88s average 8.4% on 45 minute of more delays and 2.4% cancellations. Of interest to MD fans, Delta's MD-90s do rather better at 6.8% delays and 1.3% cancellations.

In other news --

• The S-3 lives on
• CO3407 fallout
• Don't look for a US airline job
• Vetting the Gatwick bidders

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

MOL's gall

The man is amazing. Does he have any friends? Take a look at this. He seems to look forward to his suppliers being in dire straights. Note that Airbus has already said they would not deal with MOL. He is incorrigible.

But with this announcement, who is bluffing? MOL wants a deal and will obfuscate through his teeth to get a discount - we don't doubt that for a minute. That said, Airbus must be twitching to win a 200 plane order. Same for Boeing. Even with the deep discounts, both firms have easily paid off their tooling costs. Essentially both OEM's look at this deal as covering marginal cost to keep their lines open. MOL knows this of course.

The only way that we catch MOL bluffing is if both OEMs come out publicly. But they won't do that will they? Clearly if MOL is not bluffing then Airbus is. Which must make Boeing nuts. So really this is quite exciting.

In other news --

• SOCOM buys from PZL
• JFK data gives a clue
• ORD prang - a seat belt story....
• Costa Cruises gets into bed with Ryanair

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Getting high on SAA - again!

Can you believe this? That's twice in one month. Talk about the monkeys running the zoo. Surely you would expect the CEO to resign and mass firings - but not in the New South Africa. Oh no, they will probably promote people!

One should not be surprised to see the UK seriously curb SAA's access. This is way over the top. In case you have not considered this - imagine how many flights have come in already with drugs that would make the traffickers so bold.

In other news --

• The $27 upgrade
• Last call for SQ's A345s?
• Sharp cutback in Russian air travel
• BALPA's members don't like their ID cards

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

The JetLev-Flyer

OK this is something you might want to save for. It looks like amazing fun. German businessman Lars Ramke unveiled the JetLev-Flyer, an aqua jet pack that enables people to levitate ten meters above the water's surface and travel horizontally as fast as 65kph for up to two hours.

The contraption, which was shown for the first time last month at Boot Düsseldorf 2009, has a gas-powered pump that sucks water up through a 40-meter hose and blasts it downward at a pressure high enough to allow an adult human to fly. Naturally, this toy isn't cheap at $130,000.

In other news --

• Virgin smeared - just a bit
• Qantas wants Aussie's to be loyal
• Rolls Royce defies the gloom - so far
• AF/KLM cuts 1,200 jobs

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Air Asia X keeps growing

This week's Economist has a neat story on this airline and its challenges. Meanwhile this airline keeps growing.

AirAsia X wants to lease up to five A340-300s so it can fly to new markets in Europe and New Zealand. Chief executive Azran Osman Rani says it would like to lease the planes, although they are in tight supply, ”for the right price”. A340s?

SRB's Virgin Group has taken a 20% stake in AirAsia X. That is probably where the A340s will come from. Virgin is using them a lot less than before as their own market shrinks.

In other news --

• C-17 gets a boost
• USAF uncovers the F-35, just a bit
• Ireland on the skids
• Lufthansa says NO

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Airbus Refines A30X Design

Robert Wall reports from Paris that Airbus is toying with the A320 again. He has a titillating comment which will raise eyebrows all over - "the A30X concepts differ markedly from traditional Airbus designs". What exactly does that mean? He goes on to state that open rotor designs may be getting attention. This likely means that odd looking plane put forward by easyJet may actually bear some reality.

Such designs do not bring any comfort and joy to P&W, whose GTF design is especially meant to work under wing. Airbus has not released any of its GTF test data. Note Wall's piece goes on to quote P&W's Bob Saia.

This article is likely to spur industry journalists no end to uncover what Airbus is doing. The race for pictures is on.

In other news --

• Stealth floats
• Russia to help NATO
• SIA slumps
• Glowing night time skies

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Will Obama open Havana?

There are these rumors....take a look here. The Cubans living in Florida will fume and fuss, but their guy did not make it to the White House. Note the bill's supporters don't live in Florida.

The airline and travel industry would like to see this market opened up. Actually, the quiet unstated thing is this; if Americans can go to Cuba on vacation, their money and behavior will speed the collapse of the communist regime. With the pent up US demand and the relatively low costs of Cuba's resorts, Cuba has more to lose than the US.

With tens of thousands of Americans touring they can only damage the Castro family's fragile hold on the population. Americans cannot be arrested by the hundreds and deported without destroying the economic largess they would bring. An American tourist "invasion" will accomplish more to destroy Communism than anything else is our bet.

In other news --

• India's fighter deal, part 1 & 2
• India's travel agents fight back
• Lufthansa sells Condor
• Heathrow's neat little tram

Subscribe to over 3,300 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Delta chops CVG fares

Long the city everyone likes to joke about, Cincinnati had the highest fares in the US. Really nasty expensive. But Delta chopped the fares up to 60%! The CVG-LAX route used to be $310 one-way but is now $130. What on earth are they thinking in Atlanta?

Or maybe they are simply trying to preempt the folks in Dallas who happen to have spare 737s and a keen eye to make money. By cutting fares this way, Delta may have kept Southwest out of CVG. However, if this is the case, and we think it is, you can see that the market share mindset is still alive. What Delta should have done is let Southwest in and then chop the fares. But it may be the folks in Atlanta have been drinking too much Rockstar and now believe they can do no wrong - that their size means they can do what they like and move the markets by themselves.

Of course team Southwest will see this for what it is. Delta is scared. The Northwest merger is eating away at manager time and the company is vulnerable. Southwest should move into CVG anyway. It will make things very interesting and also pile on pressure at Dayton where AirTran calls the shots.

In other news --

• Another internal Airbus battle
• Virgin Australia
• Another sign of the times - negative Airbus orders in January
• UK industry woes

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

The impact of online collaboration technology

At IAG we have been making growing use of gotomeeting.com to demo our new data service. We have been delighted with its effectiveness and recommend it highly. (If you want to see the software tool at work, please let us know).

It is with a grin that we came across this story. Clearly the online collaboration software can easily become the bane of the airline industry - with silly fares and fees, airlines are offering less for more. If you can make a sale from your desk, then so much the better. While its tough to create a relationship online (dating sites make this a questionable assertion, but there you are), once you have a relationship, online collaboration allows people to visit with each other remotely.

So imagine being able to cut out 50% of your travel using this software. The impact will speak for itself. This is powerful stuff. Of course Google docs already shows that its possible to do some of this for free. Disintermediation still lives!

In other news --

• Olympic gets a buyer
• BA suffers a hiccup
• Emirates quietly cuts back
• Bombardier outsources to a college?

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Industry benchmarks

As you ponder data for Virgin America published so far, take a look at these overall numbers. (Specifically the data on our subscriber site) Clearly in terms of ROA and passenger yield, Virgin is in a lot worse trouble than its peers. Its revenues are no where nearly high enough. The data presented here is for the US domestic system.

In other news --

• More 787s are canceled - is the A380 far behind?
• Virgin America uncovered
• Airbus shuns Ryanair - Boeing thrilled
• Updated US international travel stats

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Southwest and Las Vegas

Traffic started to peak last summer, especially into Las Vegas. Clearly, given the nature of Las Vegas' type of traffic, when the recession hit and credit dried up, you would expect to see air traffic fall off. As you may be aware schedules into Las Vegas have been cut back hard - except for one airline.

Take a look at the table below. Note that industry cut back capacity all through the year. But not Southwest. Note how as the industry steadily cut back on capacity, industry load factors rose. Southwest did not cut back as fast, and its comparative load factor fell steadily throughout the period. At the same time Southwest’s market share rose – unfortunately, in an ever weaker market, as the chart above shows.

Maybe they are not as prescient as we all think?

In other news --

• Aeroflot rejoinder
• Canadian carriers do better
• Qantas does a rights issue
• bmi pilots getting shafted?

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

Your cellphone is your friend

Mobile ticketing, in which travelers receive a special bar code on cellphones which acts as a boarding pass, is taking off in Europe and the US. Delta, Continental and American Airlines all have mobile programs.

“This is more convenient for customers, and it’s also good for the environment,” says Delta.com managing director Josh Weiss. He says the service has taken more time to roll out than expected because of delays installing machines at airport gates that can read the screens of hundreds of different types of phones. Many European carriers have launched mobile ticketing trials, including Air France and BMI.

In the US, the pioneer is Continental Airlines, which enabled cellphone check-in at certain airports in 2007. American Airlines introduced mobile boarding passes in November and likely will extend the program.

Mobile ticketing is expected to grow from 37.4m transactions in 2007 to more than 1.8bn by 2011, according to Juniper Research. It estimates the airline industry could save $500m/year with mobile ticketing, slashing paper and ink costs plus the costs of the magnetic strip encoding equipment.

Analysts say mobile ticketing is a win-win situation for both passengers and airlines. “Internationally the process has caught on faster, with even Estonian Airlines having introduced mobile phone check-in,” says Arvai Group president Ernest Arvai, a consulting firm to the airline industry based in New Hampshire. (and occasional blogger on this site)

In other news --

• Aeroflot's "drunk" pilot - even a stroke is reason to panic
• Ryanair and the 400 plane order
• Radical SAS news
• Two A380s for Korean - brave, very brave

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

RFID - the scary part

If you've ever lost a bag when flying you know the amazing level of frustration. It always the bag with the important stuff. The you have to deal with people who don't give a you know what. The entire experience is a foretaste of purgatory. So the thing about getting an RFID on your bag is really cool - its harder to lose one even if you're working at an airline because McDonald's wasn't hiring.

Anyway it seems the RFID concept has lots of fans. They want to put these things in passports for example. And that's the problem, take a look here.

Watch this video too.

In other news --

• ATA applauds biofuel
• ELAL near prang
• AF/KLM denies secret Alitalia pact
• Market collapses and Ryanair raises target

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram

SAS takes bath

Start with this link. So SAS gives Spanair away for €1 - taking an $580m hit. In these times does this not send a signal? SAS is in deep you know what. On top this "book loss", SAS has committed €50m in potential funding for the new Spanair, and confirmed that it will pay €18m worth of Spanair's loans.

Are you surprised Lufthansa has not stepped in to buy SAS yet? Clearly the Germans can just wait for a few months and then, maybe, buy SAS for €1. The rapidly consolidation taking place in the EU among its airlines is breathtaking.

When looking a the US model, when an airline is taken over, it loses its brand and the buying airline becomes the new brand. In the EU, note that the old brands stay alive. Lufthansa has made this a trademark action - the taken over companies stay with their old brands. There has to be some sort of explanation. Perhaps even though we are looking at something called the EU, the region's nations still harbor intense national identity. In the US, where its all one country, such issues don't matter.

In other news --

• Cell phones get ever faster
• The Israeli airborne network
• Tanker split buy back on the cards
• Plummeting air cargo

Subscribe to over 3,200 (and growing) analysis and opinion posts behind the headlines at Blackprogram