Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Reuters reports that AC is in big trouble. "Air Canada shares sank 22 percent on Tuesday as analysts speculated the resignation of its chief executive, and the naming of a replacement known for his restructuring expertise, may signal its second filing for creditor protection in six years."

Oops! This is not sounding too good. It was only a few years ago that Montie Brewer's plan of divesting everything was seen as very clever. "Suddenly and dramatically, bringing in someone like Mr. Rovinescu... speaks to the extreme turmoil currently taking place at Air Canada," Ben Cherniavsky, an analyst at Raymond James, wrote in a research note. Cherniavsky pegs Air Canada's survival at "50/50, at best."

This has to be yet another shock to Star - how many shocks can this grand alliance take? They lost Varig, United looks weak and well, US Airways is what it is. How Lufthansa must aggravate over its partners.

In other news --

  • Heathrow is rated worst UK airport - where's the surprise?
  • FAA expects a 9% drop in airline traffic
  • OAG's view of the industry
  • Panasonic launches TV channel

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Monday, March 30, 2009

OnAir reaches 10,000th flight

OnAir, based in Geneva, says its Mobile OnAir in-flight connectivity system hit its 10,000th flight in commercial operation. The 10,000th flight was a TAP flight from Lisbon to Munich. Its amazing how fast this connectivity thing is growing.

Since December 2007, Mobile OnAir services have been used on flights to 162 cities in 34 countries in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the company said. OnAir is a joint venture between Airbus and SITA.

“This is a significant milestone and underlines how quickly our operations are expanding across a variety of markets. The feedback from in flight experience shows that phone use inside aircraft does not create any discomfort to passengers - we have not heard of one single complaint. In addition, we are seeing a host of new applications which will deliver additional services,” said Benoit Debains, CEO of OnAir.

In other news --

  • Yes Skype will work on a plane - here's how
  • Gulf Air adds suites - Jet's ones that is
  • Bombardier's latest order
  • EU/Canada open skies - what's the USA impact?

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A brave face

Airbus has had no order cancellations from Chinese airlines so far amid the global industry downturn, its China president Laurence Barron said today. The Chinese government has encouraged cancellation or postponement in deliveries.

The president of China Eastern, which forecast a significant loss for 2008, said in February it intended to cancel or delay half of the 29 planes it expected to receive from Airbus and Boeing this year, its president said in February. So the market is not nearly as stable as Mr. Barron would have one believe.

And there's that other item - Airbus' joint assembly venture in Tianjin, which makes A320s. Where will this capacity go? You can bet Chinese made planes will get priority in China over those made in Toulouse. We have long held this factory was a mistake for Airbus and we may yet see this come true.

In other news --

  • BA and Iberia continue to stumble
  • AF/KLM watches its cash mountain fritter
  • TUI, ESAS and Air Berlin
  • Finnair gets its A333 - financing options look tough

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Icelandair tries something different

A flight between Heathrow and Seattle are to be introduced by Icelandair this summer. The service will go via Reykjavik, giving passengers the option of an Icelandic stop over at no extra cost. Four London departures a week are to run from July 22 on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays leaving London at 13.00 and arriving at 16.45 in Seattle local time.

In co-operation with Alaska Airlines arrivals allow for onward connections to destinations in the western US and Canada, including Anchorage, Calgary, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Vancouver. Return flights depart Seattle on Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays at 15.30, arriving in London at 11.45 the following day.

This is the quintessential long shot. Its an awfully long ride on a 757.

In other news --

  • Northrop Grumman tries again
  • FedEx and those 777Fs
  • Changing UK holiday traffic
  • A380 and LAX - the cocktail that won't mix well

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Bored F-16 pilot plays

In other news --

  • LAN gets kudos
  • USAirways loves that ancillary revenue
  • More French fighter problems
  • UK unions wants bag limits

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Now Singapore admits premium revenue hurting

Start here. SQ gets 40% of its revenue from premium travelers? That's very high. Removing 17% of its capacity is not necessarily a great solution. How about rethinking the A380 which is extremely in need of "front heavy freight". The news from Cathay, BA and AF all confirm the same thing, doesn't it? The front cabin is just too light to make any money.

Clearly the dearth of premium travelers must be devastating revenue streams. Buying down must be the big problem facing the industry now. It takes very little in terms of revenue management to roll airline revenues under water. Pricing is hugely complex - did you know the industry frequently has 10,000 price changes/day? Making pricing errors can bleed an airline quickly. This is an area we need to watch carefully because this is what is going to cause the fastest changes. Nothing focuses attention like money.

In other news --

  • Free Mirages
  • China's big bang
  • When its too late to pray
  • IATA doubles up bad news

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Monday, March 23, 2009

A note about Twitter

For those of you not using this media - please consider it. Follow IAG and get twits from the news through the day.

In other news --

  • Another Mig23 crash on video
  • Etihad gets cheeky
  • Wanna buy an airport?
  • Qantas job cuts

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Sunday, March 22, 2009

FedEx crash at Narita

Watch the video in Japaneses here. It appears the plane came down nose low and bounced, then the left wing caught and the plane cartwheeled. It seems to be an MD-11. No word yet on the crew.

In other news --

  • Air France enables buying down
  • India buys Israeli satellite
  • V-22 gets a handy boost
  • A345 tail strike

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Thursday, March 19, 2009

A380 fears

There are a two key items you want to look at today - here and here. After reading these two you will better understand why the boys and girls in Toulouse are reaching for the anti-depressants again.

The risk was huge - $18bn - a number that is less than half the Madoff Mess, its true. But still serious money. Now think about the situation. Emirates, a A380 booster if ever there was one, sees its NYC traffic down to sometimes 100 people per flight. How quick can you take off the A380 and put a 77 in its place? Oh, by the way if you cannot make NYC work, which city will work? London? That's a maybe - anything else, unlikely. Emirates has over 50 to come yet. Just how much anti-depressants do they need in Dubai?

Then imagines ILFC sees just how tough this is. Maybe those 10 A380s they have on order are best traded for A330s. Don't you think? Even A320s would be better. Hey, maybe there's a deal on A350s?

Meanwhile a few pundits still harass Boeing over the 747i. Seems Boeing played this one rather well. Very low risk and an excellent spoiler. Not that Boeing is laughing, they have some tough challenges ahead. But clearly the industry is about to undergo yet another production burp.

Oh by the way, is this a good time to bring up the debate over hub to hub vs. fragmenting traffic?

In other news --

  • Rumor - Southwest to sell meals?
  • Virgin America joins fee club
  • BAA broken up
  • Hungary saves Malev

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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Earn a HUGE amount of miles

Seems like some people still have money. Take a look here. Of course SRB's name is right there front and center.

In other news --

  • China starts J-10 exports
  • Houston's teaser
  • Ryanair's pilots freeze pay
  • Ryanair moves into Bavaria - Lufthansa, your move

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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Iranian SU24 crash

This is amazing. Also, note the huge amount of smoke the plane trails coming in. It seems the plane snapped its nose wheel - not such a great pilot. Iran's air force is not in great shape. Even with planes essentially stolen from Iraq, they are in bad shape. The force is clearly no match for the Israelis - if they come. Of course there is angst among Israeli pilots - they would actually like to do combat with Iran and wipe out that air force as they did to Syria.

In other news --

  • The Great Downgrade
  • Ancillary revenue - the dirty secret
  • US traffic also sinks
  • UK watchdog vets Gatwick bidders

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Monday, March 16, 2009

More A380 woes

Start here. In a note to us from the story's author - "I do not have the report .. the real details should be in Der Spiegel. What we are reporting off of what a teaser story on Saturday in Der Spiegel, and apparently they are going to follow up with a full length feature any day now."

The 46 page report has yet to surface. (it surely will, won't it Jon?) Clearly the A380 customers are at least very anxious. Their flagship is impressive to look at, but possibly a bit less exciting to own. Airbus is clearly nervous - as it should be - "We take the criticism and the feedback from Emirates very seriously," an Airbus spokeswoman said. "We are doing everything we can to overcome the issues and we are working very closely with our customers to solve that."

The A380s have lost 500 hours of flying time due to grounding to deal with problems, Der Spiegel said. So the A380 has had quite a few issues to overcome. A slow production and consequent slow ramp up has not helped. Confidence may not be building as fast as one would have hoped. Is this an opportunity for the 747i? Could this be why Lufthansa is sticking with its 747i order?

In other news --

  • Air Asia X's A330s
  • Missing the Skyraider
  • The great UK travel decline
  • Where is ILFC's buyer?

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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Lessons learned during the recession will be hard to undo

The dirty little secret is that many firms, maybe most, have learned that they can do without travel. Or certainly the level they were doing before tough times. These are great times for WebEx, gotomeeting and Abode.

Yet a new survey of business leaders finds that while corporate travel budgets are often the first target of cost-cutting measures, a majority believe that companies that increase travel budgets during an economic downturn will be better positioned to build competitive advantage.

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of businesses surveyed say that increasing travel while others are cutting back creates an opportunity to build market share and new customer relationships. Half (53%) also believe that companies that reduce their business travel will give an advantage to competitors who maintain their travel commitment.

The findings illustrate the conflict within businesses that are under pressure to quickly identify cost reductions in the economic downturn. When making these reductions businesses may sacrifice longer-term strategic and competitive advantage.

"It's a classic trade off between short term cost-reductions and long term value," says Kellogg Business School Professor Daniel Diermeier, a Distinguished Professor of Regulation and Competitive Practice. "During times like these, many companies will go too far, and actually cut back on the activities that would best position them to compete in the future."

The survey of business executives at companies with more than $50 million in annual sales found that:

  • 82% of companies surveyed believe that business travel is important to achieving their business results;
  • 81% believe that more client contact is necessary in a slow economy;
  • A majority (59%) strongly agree that in-person contact grows their business; and
  • 72% of businesses believe that increasing travel while others are cutting back creates an opportunity to build market share and new customer relationships.

    "Travel plays an important role in business growth in a down economy, by helping businesses connect with their customers," said Dr. Suzanne Cook, U.S. Travel's Senior Vice President of Research. "It's also clear from our survey results that the old maxim remains true; if you don't take care of your customers, someone else will."

    The survey was commissioned by the U.S. Travel Association, and conducted by APCO Insight. Telephone and web-based interviews of 401 business executives were conducted from February 3-18, with a margin of error of +/- 5% points.

    Since the survey came from USTA you would expect these results. But think about your own business, how has travel spend changed? Are you getting away with less travel, or stretching the travel spend like never before. Either way, once you have made these changes, employers will not likely let you go back to the old ways.

    In other news --

    • Nimrods coming home
    • Jazeera's profits up 94%
    • Implications of Alaska's challenge to Virgin America
    • BMI's £100m loss

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  • Thursday, March 12, 2009

    In your face Ryanair

    Who else could pull this off and get away with it? Only a company that really doesn't care what you think. Its weird because some people will think the airline has a sense of humor - which other events have shown to be not the case.

    Now if they want to make money, why not an egg throwing contest with MOL as the target? Lots of people would pay for that and the airline need not burn one liter of fuel or hire any new people.

    In other news --

    • India's Mig23s are retired
    • Pakistan's growing UAV interests
    • KLM cuts schedules
    • Cathay's record loss

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    Wednesday, March 11, 2009

    A big day for Bombardier

    Let's start with the small stuff - Bombardier Aerospace welcomed Grupo Mexicana and its regional subsidiary MexicanaLink to the family of more than 50 airlines which operate Bombardier's CRJ Series family of regional jets.

    Now the really big stuff - Bombardier Aerospace announced that Lufthansa, the launch customer for the CSeries aircraft program, signed a firm purchase agreement for 30 CSeries model CS100 (formerly C110) single-aisle aircraft. These aircraft will be operated by Lufthansa's subsidiary Swiss International Air Lines Ltd. The agreement also includes options on an additional 30 CSeries aircraft. Based on list price, the contract value for the 30 CS100 aircraft is approximately $1.53bn.

    This big news saves Bombardier and the P&W GTF engine programs. Both parties should brush up on their German and start singing German songs of thanks.

    In other news --

    • Cuba?
    • AirAzul - want to bet?
    • Qantas and Etihad to codeshare - and irritate Emirates
    • Delta shrinks some more

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    Tuesday, March 10, 2009

    SAA news - CEO fired

    Now this is something of a shock. The board fired the fellow who spoke much but seemed to do little. A report states: The board of South African Airways has resolved to relieve CE Khaya Ngqula of his services. SAA said that "by agreement" Ngqula's "employment with SAA has terminated". No further information was offered, except to say that acting CE Chris Smyth will continue in the position while SAA searches for a permanent CE. "It has been agreed between the parties that the terms of the settlement are confidential, but any payments will be reflected in the annual report in accordance with normal disclosure obligations," says SAA. Ngqula was on "special leave" pending investigation into his alleged mismanagement of the airline and conflict of interest. Conflict of interest and mismanagement? (SAA was preparing to clinch a catering deal estimated at R1.5-bn with a consortium involving Vusi Sithole, a business partner of Ngqula’s wife) Oh, what a shock! The heads behind him in the picture are not from enemies or troublesome customers. His tenure was chaotic. The consulting gig by Seabury must have been tough - one wonders if this report will ever be published. And so ends another troubled phase at this airline, once the best airline in Africa, bar none.

    In other news --

    • EADS results - not as good as they think
    • Lufthansa on the A380 - what's German for excited?
    • Various bird strike images - yucky and so destructive
    • Delta to keep those 787s

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    Monday, March 09, 2009

    USAirways launches trial of new IFE

    The much maligned IFE situation at USAirways seems to be evolving. USAirways and Lumexis Corporation have partnered to test an innovative, next generation IFE system. On certain flights, USAirways customers will have access to hundreds of on-demand IFE options including movies, music, games and shopping.

    Lumexis Fiber-To-The-Screen™(FTTS™) system, when compared to current IFE solutions, uses advanced fiber optic technology requiring less hardware and reduces the system’s weight by as much 50%. Lumexis’ IFE system will offer USAirways’ customers more than 250 hours of content with 227 entertainment options including: 30 movies, 86 TV programs, four audio books, 100 music CDs with musical programming and seven games. Customers can choose on-demand entertainment through an intuitive seat-back touch screen and pay using a debit or credit card in the seat-back unit.

    Lots of promise. But the weak link on all IFE systems is crappy content. In the event that USAirways has a light weight airhead doing content selection, the experience will be ho hum. Note no connectivity - so what does this tell you about the solution? Its kinda lame in our view.

    In other news --

    • UK airport shake up
    • Marfin and Olympic part 2
    • Aegean and Olympic part 1
    • IATA and EU data privacy

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    Sunday, March 08, 2009

    Asian LCCs start price war

    The economic disruptions are washing up everywhere. Now even Asian LCCs are starting to hurt. They are offering cheap fares to push travel demand for the summer.

    Tiger Airways announced on Tuesday it would launch summer fares starting at about $16, including taxes. The carrier, 49% owned by Singapore Airlines, said in a statement it would offer its "biggest ever network of seats" and was adding new destinations for its summer schedule from March 29 to October 24. Rosalynn Tay, managing director for Tiger Airways Singapore, said the airline would "demonstrate that we will continue to grow our business even in these difficult trading conditions."

    Jetstar Asia, another Singapore-based LCC, said it had extended until August 16 a promotion to beat the cheapest price offered by rivals. Under the promotion, if a traveler finds a published online fare cheaper than the lowest available on www.jetstar.com, the airline will beat the price by 10% if the customer makes an instant reservation by phone. "The current economy makes it a tough operating environment where competition will be intense and fares will be under pressure," Jetstar Asia's commercial head Leslie Ng said in a statement.

    Malaysian budget airline AirAsia also has its "take me away" promotion. Among its offers is a one-way flight from Singapore to Bangkok starting from $43, inclusive of taxes, for travel from March 23 to September 11, according to its website. A comparative return flight to Bangkok on Singapore Airlines costs $337, inclusive of taxes. AirAsia is also offering a number of tickets starting from 25c for travel within Malaysia!

    Indonesia's Lion Air is selling a one-way trip from Singapore to Bali for as low as $5.80 for travel from June 1 to September 30, according to its website.

    Thailand's Nok Air is offering one-way fares for as low as 25c, excluding taxes and fees, for domestic flights for those traveling from May 15 to September 30, its website shows.

    Even the destitute should be able to afford to fly at these prices.

    In other news --

    • Dubai wants YOU!
    • Olympic appears to be sold - to Dubai!
    • USAirways pilots irritated
    • Off to the boneyard

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    Thursday, March 05, 2009

    easyJet angered by EU slot proposal

    Here we go again on slots. In a letter to all 27 European Commissioners, easyJet called on the EU to "avoid narrow-minded protectionism by a few legacy airlines appealing for state aid through the back door."

    easyjet claims that some airlines, led by the AEA, are asking the European Commission to consider a suspension of rules governing slot usage at Europe’s major airports. easyJet believes this is intended to prevent other European airlines from using scarce slots that would be freed-up by cutbacks expected for this year. It is understood that the Commission is preparing a proposal to suspend existing rules on slot allocation. No wonder the easyJet team sees a chance. (Where is MOL on this?)

    The AEA has publicly called on the EU to allow them to keep their slots for one year even if they do not use them. (Imagine the "lost" value at Heathrow from this position.) Under the EU’s so-called ‘use it or lose it’ rule, airlines have to use their slots for at least 80% of the time or return them to the slot pool, so that other airlines can make use of them.

    Andy Harrison, easyJet Chief Executive, said: “This is not about protecting the industry; it’s about propping-up a few poorly-run, inefficient network airlines with out-dated business models that cannot adapt to the demands of modern consumers.

    This idea does not have the support of the industry, and it is not consistent with the objective of supporting the industry. If unused slots are in demand they will be taken up by other airlines, helping consumers and local communities in the process, and the industry as a whole. However, if unused slots are not in demand they will remain available to be used by airlines.

    A slot freeze helps inefficient, legacy airlines to hoard scarce resources from European airlines that are ready and willing to use them. Implementing such a measure would lead to fewer flights, and higher fares, thereby exacerbating the economic situation, not helping it. We must resist this lurch back to the stone age of protectionism.”

    The AEA points a finger at rising airport pricing as their motive for lobbying the EU Council. The AEA said that the adoption of the EU’s Airport Charges Directive by Council on February 19th is an ‘important first step’ in addressing a serious deficiency in the air transport value chain, but believes that current pricing practices of airports, as yet not covered by the new rules, are seriously damaging airlines.

    Up to now, major airports have been able to impose price increases on their airline customers on a ‘take it or leave’ basis. Said AEA Secretary General Ulrich Schulte- Strathaus: “Many passengers do not realise that airlines pay for the infrastructure costs in the form of fees and charges; because airlines cannot simply fly to the airport which charges the lowest fees, but to the destinations their passengers have chosen, airports are natural monopolies. Twice in the last ten years, legislative proposals by the EU Commission to tackle the issue of monopolistic airport behaviour were rejected by Member States. This time the EU institutions adopted a balanced proposal which, while by no means ideal, is an important first step in remedying this situation".

    "Right now, one after another, major airports are pushing up their charges”, said Mr Schulte-Strathaus. “They do not see the need for sharing the consequences of the economic crisis with their customers, the airlines. Just one example: Copenhagen, profitable to the tune of €160m in 2008, is seeking to increase its fees by 8% as from 1st April 2009, without any kind of prior consultation. By practicing this kind of profit protection despite plummeting traffic figures they totally ignore the situation of the airline industry”. The Directive, he said, would place on the airports an obligation to consult with their airline customers, to provide transparency in their pricing calculations, and subject them to the jurisdiction of an independent national regulator; these principles would be applied throughout the European Union on the larger airports and thereby increase the pressure on all key airports to become cost efficient.

    On the one hand airport monopolies are a bad thing - as evidenced by the situation in London. But other mainland EU nations are loath to tackle this issue. So the AEA has a point. But that point is undermined by the statement "because airlines cannot simply fly to the airport which charges the lowest fees, but to the destinations their passengers have chosen" - this patently not true as proven by Ryanair. If people want lower fares they will vote with their wallets, as they do by the millions at the plucky Irish airline.

    The truth is that there are vested interests on both sides and the states will almost certainly protect infrastructure first because it is undeniably a national asset whereas airlines come and go and, lately, change ownership. So the only way for the French to manifestly protect French interests is really to protect French airports. Air France will just have to take second place. There can be little doubt the same thing applies in every EU nation. The flag stops at the runway.

    In other news --

    • Turkish 737 was on autopilot and auto throttle
    • BA losses to stretch into 2010
    • How big is the A380 footprint?
    • Calling all BlackBerry users

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    Wednesday, March 04, 2009

    Has reality come to Gulf?

    The good people running airlines in the Gulf region seem to know no such thing as a slowdown. Then along comes this news. Hogan has been in the region a long time and he knows the industry well - in short, his is an opinion to respect.

    As you ponder this news, realize that when demand falls for premium traffic - no collapses - at an airline like BA (see Blackprogram), the new players must surely see an even greater drop off. Demand is dropping like a stone. So what do you do when your airline is acquiring 777s every month and A380s as soon as they can be built? You know what we're talking about here. Abu Dhabi already rode to rescue of Dubai with a buying spree of the latter's paper. How much longer will Abu Dhabi keep this up? Because the capital requirements for Dubai's new airport and growing airline are huge.

    And if reality strikes as it has at AF (see Blackprogram), imagine the nail biting going on in Toulouse? A slide in A380 deliveries will make that program's numbers look even worse (yes, they can get worse) just as deliveries have started in earnest. We are licensed financial services people - but shorting EADS might not be a bad play.

    In other news --

    • The slump hits BA hard
    • Has the A380 slide started?
    • America's Ryanair
    • Delta sells planes (and buys a few too)

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    Tuesday, March 03, 2009

    Nothing changes

    Read this and laugh - Reuters is reporting that Alitalia, which was relaunched in January, expects to lose €200m this year, its chief executive said on Tuesday.

    The airline, which is now a slimmed-down carrier with a smaller capacity owned by a group of Italian investors and Air France-KLM, was on track to lose €1bn on an operating basis in 2008, the commissioner overseeing its bankruptcy has previously said. Alitalia's passenger numbers dropped sharply after its January relaunch but the situation has improved since then, CEO Rocco Sabelli said at a conference.

    "We had a terrible first three to four weeks," he said, adding that the airline did not cancel any flights despite the fall in bookings. "After those terrible three weeks we began to do better even if we're not filling the aircraft as much as we would like," he said.

    We wonder how long people will rush back to AZ?

    In other news --

    • The Hog lives on
    • Delta and the 787 - looking iffy?
    • Qantas grounds an A380 - these two taking a lot of flak lately
    • Stansted on hold

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    Monday, March 02, 2009

    A380 "too big" for LAX

    Oh Oh. This is not what Airbus wants to see in the headlines. Since LAX is not the most constrained airport in the world, we're thinking more about Heathrow here, what does this say for the A380 elsewhere? This is an ignominious start for a plane that has borne many ignominious escapades on its way to commercial operations.

    In other news --

    • Predator flight hours surge
    • Southwests' February traffic numbers look weak - imagine the rest
    • Another aviation milestone
    • Spain's LCCs merger gets closer - Iberia rules supreme though

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